Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

latest ENSO output for 2013-2014

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

as for Mr Madden and someone above suggesting his prediction is going according to plan!

What plan?

Which part of the UK has had severe cold and snow yet?

 

 

Ben Nevis.

[Barry12]

meanwhile in the land of reality what is there to suggest this-anything anyone please?

 

THIS COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AND SEVERE COLD TO THE SCOTTISH MOUNTAINS

 

[feb1991blizzard]

THIS COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AND SEVERE COLD TO THE SCOTTISH MOUNTAINS

 

 

It almost certainly would bring snow but not 'severe' cold.

[Barry12]

Maybe madden is bad at geography and thought Greenland was the UK?

[Skullzrulerz]

Maybe madden is bad at geography and thought Greenland was the UK?

Or maybe mars.

[dec10snow]

He forecasted severe cold and heavy snow as we progress through November, not just a 'cool down'

I'm sure he'll still claim to be right

[bobbydog]

snow is coming! officially! my local tescos has taken delivery of six shiny new quad bikes with snow ploughs on the front for clearing the car park!

 

ok, it doesn't guarantee snowmageddon but...... "every little helps".......

[Barry12]

I'm sure he'll still claim to be right

 

He'll probably post a picture on his website of a Scottish mountain which will 'show' he was right

Edited November 7, 2013 by Barry95

[UV-RAY]

Ben Nevis.

Your wrong feb91,  both Glencoe, Cairngorm and higher elevations of County Durham also reported  snowfalls.

Edited November 7, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[cyclonic happiness]

Why do people on here always jump on bandwagons of 'having a go'? Really adds nothing to the forum other than to expose people's true colours :-(

 

I'd expect the mods to be keeping on top of this too?

[UV-RAY]

Why do people on here always jump on bandwagons of 'having a go'? Really adds nothing to the forum other than to expose people's true colours :-(

 

I'd expect the mods to be keeping on top of this too?

You make a fair point because if someone bashed a respectable forecaster/establishment then some would be up in arms.

[bobbydog]

Why do people on here always jump on bandwagons of 'having a go'? Really adds nothing to the forum other than to expose people's true colours :-(

 

I'd expect the mods to be keeping on top of this too?

 

having a go at who?

 

ahh... i see....

Edited November 7, 2013 by bobbydog

[feb1991blizzard]

Your wrong feb91,  both Glencoe, Cairngorm and higher elevations of County Durham also reported  snowfalls.

 

Doesn't make me wrong though because I never claimed that county Durham didn't have falls, I just stated that Ben Nevis had falls 

[Buriedundersnow]

Doesn't make me wrong though because I never claimed that county Durham didn't have falls, I just stated that Ben Nevis had falls 

 

 

who's the poor person having to pick it back up

[Richard Lake]

snow is coming! officially! my local tescos has taken delivery of six shiny new quad bikes with snow ploughs on the front for clearing the car park!

 

ok, it doesn't guarantee snowmageddon but...... "every little helps".......

 

How very drool... very...!

[SE Blizzards]

Interesting video below from Simon Keeling, someone who i follow quite regularly and is right more often than not.

A little bit about super typhoon Haiyan, the ao and nao, tonights ECM run, and he even mentions the magical 'B' word towards the end of the video that most coldies love to hear. BLOCKING!!

 

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Edited November 7, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[bobbydog]

You make a fair point because if someone bashed a respectable forecaster/establishment then some would be up in arms.

 

thing is though, madden is not a respectable forecaster (i'm not jumping on the bandwagon- i'm the driver...).

a respectable forecaster (professional and amateur alike) will give a reasoned forecast based on their own and (usually) recognised methods. should their forecast turn out to be wrong, they would analyse why and adjust any future forecasts accordingly. importantly, they should also admit they were wrong and try to explain where they went wrong. this would justify why they made the forecast in the first place. long range forecasts are made on the available facts at the time. as we know, these are subject to change which will very often cause any LRF to be wrong.

where madden is concerned, he will not admit he is wrong. he will twist the facts to his own ends to claim he was right all along, even when he is blatantly wrong.

we all see and mock the tabloid headlines like "siberian icy blast to hit UK" when actually, a scottish mountain gets a dusting of snow as it normally would. or "killer megastorm to hit UK" when its actually a (higher end of the scale) normal autumn storm.

there are a few names regularly quoted by the tabloids along with these ridiculous headlines. madden is very often one of them.

[CanadaAl]

I'm not sure but i'm getting a bit of a hunch that we're in for an 11/12 type winter. I'm by no means writing it off, just a gut feeling. Anyone know of factors that are similar and those that are different from what's forecast vs 2011/2012? 

 

Really loving the thread. Love the excitement building  

[tynevalleysnow]

Well if the some of the experts are right cold snowy winters will happen every year from now on for the next few decades. Will we all become mildies

[Summer Sun]

He'll probably post a picture on his website of a Scottish mountain which will 'show' he was right

 

He's already claiming success............ I wouldn't call 2 inches of snow on high ground "significant snowfall"

 

Early November Snow & Locations - As Forecast 7 Months/60 Days Ahead + More Cold/Snow To Come

 

Around two inches of snow fell across parts of County Durham (north-east) during Tuesday morning (5th November), after a weekend of stormy weather, low temperatures, and snow across other parts of the north/Scotland.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487760/UK-weather-Bonfire-Nights-white-Snow-falls-Northern-hills-temperatures-dipping-freezing-point.html

 

The 7 month ahead forecast for November stated:

 

The risk of significant snowfall is more likely throughout the period of the 23rd to the 30th November, but the risk of snow in the earlier part of this forecasting period also can't be ruled out too.

 

The 60 day ahead forecast for November stated:

 

There is also the high possibility of some wintry precipitation to lower levels of the country throughout the early part of November, in particular, in parts to the north/Scotland and east of the country.

 

The 30 day ahead forecast for November also stated (when others were forecasting mild temperatures):

 

The final month of the meteorological autumn is likely to begin on a rather cool note for many parts of the country, with the risk of developing ground frosts and some snow across higher ground at times (possibly some wintry showers/sleet to much lower levels at times).

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Edited November 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowmadsam]

Why do people on here always jump on bandwagons of 'having a go'? Really adds nothing to the forum other than to expose people's true colours :-(

 

I'd expect the mods to be keeping on top of this too?

 

We are....

 

Could we please get back to topic on discussing the knife edge situation of a cold or mild winter please (I'm trying to learn a bit more for this year!)

 

Thanks folks

[smithyweather]

THIS COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AND SEVERE COLD TO THE SCOTTISH MOUNTAINS

Think the scottish mountains have seen enough snow. Time for low levels.

[tynevalleysnow]

The pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place

[feb1991blizzard]

The pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place

 

 

Hopefully!

[feb1991blizzard]

Fairly decent.