Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[andymusic]

lightning, hail, wintriness, wind - busy weather tonight!

[TonyH]

Re the Aberdaron gusts this from our friends over on TWO: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12187&p=15

 

That was, the Met Office says, a recording of 102mph at a weather station in Aberdaron, north Wales. However, a spokeswoman says that has yet to be confirmed and technicians are checking the instruments as it is a far higher reading than recorded nearby. The Aberdaron station is at an elevation of 95m, and a nearby station at a more exposed 216m saw a maximum gust of 87mph. So, it might not have been a 100mph storm."

I guess it's an issue with station location and the nature of gust speeds plus the fact the MO apply very strict citeria to their readings, and rightly so. Most of us amateurs can't get close, but spot readings give an idea of intensity at that location. There is a big difference between 87mph and 102mph so something seems a bit strange....especially since the 87 reading was from a "more exposed" location. 

[keithlucky]

Massive hail storm in Swansea now deafening cant hear the wife speak lol

[DeepSnow]

Had some heavy hail showers today and some thunder and lightning aswell with gusty winds!

Edited December 27, 2013 by DeepSnow

[andymusic]

lightning, thunder and more hail!

[viking_smb]

Had some heavy hail showers today and some thunder and lightning aswell with gusty winds!

I was in bridgend this evening on a call out in bryncethin was in the back of the van with the tail lift open had a huge flash of lightning then nice big crack of thunder about 17:45 ish plus hail thrown in,

weather has gone loopy lately

[J10]

Re the Aberdaron gusts this from our friends over on TWO: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12187&p=15

 

That was, the Met Office says, a recording of 102mph at a weather station in Aberdaron, north Wales. However, a spokeswoman says that has yet to be confirmed and technicians are checking the instruments as it is a far higher reading than recorded nearby. The Aberdaron station is at an elevation of 95m, and a nearby station at a more exposed 216m saw a maximum gust of 87mph. So, it might not have been a 100mph storm."

I guess it's an issue with station location and the nature of gust speeds plus the fact the MO apply very strict citeria to their readings, and rightly so. Most of us amateurs can't get close, but spot readings give an idea of intensity at that location. There is a big difference between 87mph and 102mph so something seems a bit strange....especially since the 87 reading was from a "more exposed" location. 

 

It does seem a bit strange to have winds over 100mph on a day like this.

[andymusic]

some transient wintry activity for Wales now around next friday and saturday on the gfs 12z

 

[keithlucky]

Can we break our 100mph on New Year eve oh yes we can!nice deep low on its way

[J10]

Can we break our 100mph on New Year eve oh yes we can!nice deep low on its way

 

Oh no we can't

 

I'll be glad to see the stormy weather behind us.

Edited December 28, 2013 by J10
Spelling !!!

[keithlucky]

Oh no we can't

 

I'll be lad to see the story weather behind us.

5p bet with you J1 Oh yes we can, that means serious big bucks.It"s the 2 low the kink in the isobars we need to worry about.

Edited December 28, 2013 by keithlucky

[J10]

5p bet with you J1 Oh yes we can, that means serious big bucks.

 

I wasn't being particularly serious, but I'll bet there are no 100mph winds in Wales this New Years Eve at any official station.

[keithlucky]

I wasn't being particularly serious, but I'll bet there are no 100mph winds in Wales this New Years Eve at any official station.

you on Ji15p on it lol.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Had plenty of hail showers here over the last few days.

 

Over the next week it looks like we will see much of the same weather with a long wave trough over or just to the west of the UK with storms running up towards the NW of the UK as shown by the ECM Ensemble mean chart @144 hours:

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5745/EDH1-144_jkt8.GIF

 

Also negative anomalies/lower heights shown on the ECM over the Atlantic & UK: 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4429/ECH101-144_uvg9.GIF

 

Looking at the GFS data it also shows a strong jet stream during this period so the likely outcome is more low pressure systems coming our way even though it does tend to edge slightly further south with time on the 12z GFS data.

 

Not the best news for those areas affected by the floods and as ever finer details on strong low pressure systems will show up as they come into the more reliable timeframe. 

[J10]

Severe weather here today, after a looking it up in the dictionary, it is called a ground frost, first in a very long time.

[welshgritter]

Went gritting last night.  Landed!!!

[mikeocarroll]

Severe weather here today, after a looking it up in the dictionary, it is called a ground frost, first in a very long time.

 

You call that severe... an air frost here, first in several centuries (possibly)... Siberia ain't seen nothing

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like groundhog day on the models...starting to get repetitive...

[Bobby]

Had a decent air frost here last night too, puddles frozen over even. Calm before the storm as more strong winds and heavy rain move in tonight, 40-50mm across the hills and mountains. Then wind and rain, wind and rain and more wind and rain through the week. Weather really stuck in a rut at the moment. Ground is so saturated even a brief heavy shower leaves the garden looking like a bog.

[Phantom2]

very calm before the storm here in Rhoose, wind 6kts, temp 10.1c pressure 1014 ..driving home from work at 07:00 tomorrow should be interesting !

[TonyH]

I am in the Midlands but there has been 30mm rain overnight back home, that's about 244mm for December to date.

[liamcymro]

A local weather station (Mynydd Llandygai, N W Wales) is reporting 58mm of rain in the last 24h - no wonder there's flooding around.

[TonyH]

I find that ws reasonably accurate too, and have seen the site as we have friends near there.

[Liam Ellis]

I find that ws reasonably accurate too, and have seen the site as we have friends near there.

The Mynydd Llandygai one? I always check on there, it's about 3 miles from here so pretty close. There's still some rain around - and that website is now recording nearly 60mm of rain. It should clear in the next few hours I guess.

The Mynydd Llandygai one? I always check on there, it's about 3 miles from here so pretty close. There's still some rain around - and that website is now recording nearly 60mm of rain. It should clear in the next few hours I guess.

And I'm currently in Deiniolen not Cathays.

[TonyH]

It's been a lot wetter than Capel Curig which is unusual.