South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/10/13

[Mike Storm]

Morning! Happy Halloween

[Coast]

Morning! Happy Halloween

 

Cheers!

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning

rather grey and gloomy start to the day here, hope it improves.

[tinybill]

carol  k  sounding  a  bit worried about Saturday storm this morning

[dwalton]

I would agree, flooding does look to be a problem. Especially in Sussex. There was that narrow band of rain from last Saturday that has done it for me. Heavy rain concentrated over We Sussex for a good few hours. Does any one have any data on this as my lap-top has gone gaga. Lol. Thanks

[Coast]

Does any one have any data on this as my lap-top has gone gaga. Lol. Thanks

 

Have a look back about 10 posts at the current updates on rain (expected) and flood alerts  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Happy Halloweeeeeeen!!!!

Edited October 31, 2013 by Surrey

[abruzzi spur]

Morning all

 

We've already had some heavy downpours in North Pembrokeshire, currently it's dry and solidly grey.  Squally showers forecast for the day, then pretty wet tomorrow. then a soggy gale-driven drive home on Saturday.  Let's hope the Severn Bridges are not closed otherwise we will be visiting Gloucester.  The joys of Welsh weather!

 

Have a good day.

 

AS

[Storme]

Mornin' all. Blessed Samhain and Happy Halloween!

Thought there was something on the cards. Been feeling like someone hit me over the head with a fryinging pan since last Sunday.

Gloomy and raining relentlessly here near Gatwick.

[Snow Queen one]

Raining here today too. Got son in laws shed to fix this weekend hoping not to get too wet putting it back upright.

Happy Haloween all.

[Coast]

MetO peak gusts filtered out by me for tomorrow and then Saturday:

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/brighton-brighton-and-hove#?tab=map&fcTime=1383382800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=-0.40&lat=51.24

 

This is now pretty much in line with other models for intensity, location and timing.

 

[Tilly]

Happy Soggy Halloween!

 

I look like a drowned rat after sweeping the leaves from the front door. It was probably a total waste of time seeing as the weekend will probably bring a ton more to the doorstep haha. Hope everyone has a great day

[Coast]

XC Weather have the peak time on Saturday around the same as MetO with a sustained 48 mph in The Channel, a little less as you get inland from the South coast:

 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

 

Better get those firework displays out of the way early then and onto the hot soup, jacket spuds and mulled wine!

[Atlantis]

Good morning and a Happy Halloween everyone! I think the weather may put off all but the most hardy trick or treaters tonight - well, I hope so anyway as the rate my two sons are eating the sweets I brought to give out, there will be nothing left anyway!

It is really miserable here this morning. Raining sometimes quite heavily and temp. is currently 12.8 . Grey and horrible really. Given up trying to sweep paths as no sooner that I get them clear, the heavy rain brings more bits down!

Not looking forward to the wind and rain over the next few days. The river Uck flooded the fields near where I live on Monday, so with all this rain to come, fully expecting to see it happen again. Thank you John and Coast for keeping us up to date with the latest thoughts. It is really good to have your insight into this weather.

Think it's an evening for a nice homemade curry and a lager or nice glass of red to wash it down.

Have a good day whatever you are doing.

[Coast]

Thank you John and Coast for keeping us up to date with the latest thoughts. It is really good to have your insight into this weather.

 

I just have a lot of bookmarks! 

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all and happy Halloween !

Lots of trick and treats in the latest NW forecast ....

Spooky Showers, Then Toil & Trouble Brewing

We have quite a mixed bag of weather in the cauldron today for Halloween. And as we head into the first few days of November, we are all in for another bout of increasingly wild weather to blow the cobwebs away. Friday is looking like a washout for England and Wales, as an area of low pressure crosses southern England. Then another low, deeper this time, moves across the country on Saturday, bringing further rain or showers and gales or severe gales in places. So not great for those having bonfires and watching firework displays.

It’s not quite as cold to start Halloween as yesterday, when some of us started the day with the spooky sound of scraping ice off windscreens. Instead, it’s quite a misty and murky morning across England and Wales, following a band of rain moving southeast overnight. The band of rain is still across the southeast of England and may linger here for much the morning before clearing eventually this afternoon. Sunny spells will develop, more especially across southern and eastern England. Further west we will see showers gathering and becoming more frequent through the day across the far southwest of England, Wales and NW England, some of these drifting in across the Midlands too. There will be plenty of blustery showers packing in across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, some of which may be accompanied by hail and thunder and merging into longer spells of rain in places. Eastern Scotland seeing some showers too, but less frequent, with more chance of staying dry with sunny spells here than further west. Temperatures will reach around 15C in London, 13C in Cardiff, 12C in Newcastle and 10C in Glasgow. But it will feel chilly everywhere in the brisk southwesterly wind, which will touch gale force across northern Scotland.

I can conjure up some dry weather for trick-or-treaters, ghosts and witches across central and eastern areas tonight, but in the west, I’m afraid it’s a witch’s spell of showers and some rain may creep into the south later on.

Friday is shaping up to be potentially a very wet day across parts of England and Wales, as an area of low pressure moves in from the southwest across southern England, bringing bands of heavy rain northwards. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be brighter, but with a scattering of showers towards western coasts of Scotland.

Then on Saturday, we see another low pressure system move in from the west. And although its track is still not definite yet, it looks to be deeper and further north than tomorrow’s low, so many places will like turn very windy with spells of rain or blustery showers moving through, though it doesn’t look like being as windy as last Monday thankfully.

Sunday should bring a temporary respite, as a brief ridge of high pressure builds in. So a mostly dry and sunny day inland with isolated showers around the coasts, before more cloud and rain rolls in from the west across southern Britain during the evening.

Published on 31st October 2013

[Sprites]

I just have a lot of bookmarks!

and an auntie who works in the met office disguised as a moth.

[tinybill]

pouring  down  out side  in  ipswich

[Guest bjaykent]

Although a good deal of variation from run to run out in the further reaches of  FI  the hints are definitely there for the Atlantic to go to sleep around mid November as shown on GFS 6Z this morning. Can't wait!

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0

Edited October 31, 2013 by bjaykent

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

Yellow Alert of Rain for East of England :

Essex, Hertfordshire, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

A spell of heavy rain is expected to affect parts of southern England during Friday and early Saturday. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

Issued at:

1049 on Thu 31 Oct 2013

Valid from:

1200 on Fri 1 Nov 2013

Valid to:

2359 on Fri 1 Nov 2013

An area of low pressure currently developing over the Atlantic Ocean is likely to track close to or across southern England later Friday and early Saturday, bringing with it a spell of wet weather.

Rain is expected to be the main hazard associated with this depression, 15 to 30 mm rain likely quite widely, perhaps locally 40 mm. English Channel coastal areas will also be windy for a time with gales and gusts up to 50 mph. Further inland, wind speeds are expected to be much lower.

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England :

West Berkshire, Hampshire, Kent, Medway, Surrey, East Sussex, West Sussex, Brighton and Hove, Isle of Wight, Portsmouth & Southampton

Rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing during Monday. This additional rainfall, following recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

Issued at:

1016 on Thu 31 Oct 2013

Valid from:

1800 on Sun 3 Nov 2013

Valid to:

1200 on Mon 4 Nov 2013

A frontal zone moving across the Atlantic this weekend is expected to extend eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing away southeastwards during Monday. Associated rain is likely to be heavy at times with accumulations typically between 10 and 20 mm and locally close to 30 mm. Conditions will also become rather windy in English Channel coastal areas where gales may develop for a time during Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday.

Edited October 31, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Jimmyh]

so in the cauldron for Halloween today is Rain rain rain rain rain rain and more rain someone call Noah quickly the ark needs raising eek 

[Lauren]

Well OH has decided to go ahead with our fireworks whatever the weather. I have told him not to come crying to me he accidentally sets the close on fire with errant fireworks.

[weathergeek]

Well both those weather warnings are for Friday and Sun/Mon so I'm gonna put my rose-tinted glasses on and hope that Saturday night will dodge the worst weather and the firework party for my sons 7th bday will still go ahead!!!

H x

[Sprites]

I have 28 gallons of petrol to start the bonfire, and an app that tells me when its halloween in Egypt.

[Tamara]

Although a good deal of variation from run to run out in the further reaches of  FI  the hints are definitely there for the Atlantic to go to sleep around mid November as shown on GFS 6Z this morning. Can't wait!

 

gfs-0-384 la la.png gfs-1-384 la la.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0

Yes I agree. This weather illustrates why I find autumn my least favourite season of the year, next to winter if all it produces is endless wind and rain. Even if we have to wait for any properly cold weather with frost and snow, I will be happy simply for the low pressure system train to be derailed. This is starting to resemble that hideous November 2009 too much (albeit its still the last day of October) ..although I did like what followed the following month

 

Btw - I hope you feel better soon

Edited October 31, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר