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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    It's like a tap being switched on and off here, localised short, sharp showers. 6.8mm has fallen today. :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: near Bridgwater, somerset
  • Location: near Bridgwater, somerset

    utterly selfish!!  Have you no thought for the people who died and for those who suffered serious damage. Wierd

     

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    original post has now been removed, in future it may be best to report such posts.
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    From Ian;"Still limited confidence on rain amounts & distribution this evening. Considerable flux in wet v dry/drier signal for e.g. Bristol. Conversely, confidence in an increasingly windy & showery story Sat PM is high. Gusts potentially 70mph Bristol Channel coasts with inland gusts fairly widely to around 50mph. Not as bad as Monday's storm but wider spread of high winds across the region. Given the high winds, any firework displays planned on Saturday evening need very cautious consideration (or arguably, postponed?)"

     

    Worth noting any already weakened trees and man-made structures would be made increasingly unstable given the amount of rain and potential for strong winds. This reason alone makes things rather hairy*, IMHO. *wondering whether I should perhaps reword this in case mullender is lurking*

    The models had stepped away from the idea of excessive rainfall last night and today, hence why the warning for the SW has been removed but kept for the SE. That warning cancelled bonfires and fireworks here, and there's a small chance it may not even be raining at 6pm, even if it is, it won't be a considerble amount. 

     

    Didn't know that was the case, can only be good news in all hindsight. Thanks Mapantz.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    utterly selfish!!  Have you no thought for the people who died and for those who suffered serious damage. Wierd

    I think he is refering to his location because he wasn't able to see the previous storm as he was somwhere else.

     

    Its not really selfish though, we can't change or make the weather do what we wan't it to, but the fact is that everyone has there own likes and I am afraid that life is just not fair sometimes.

     

    Lets face it, if everyone had their own way we would all just be doing the things that we like, it is only because of the consequences of certain actions that makes us feel for other people, otherwise we would be nonthewiser.

    Edited by wimblettben
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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    utterly selfish!!  Have you no thought for the people who died and for those who suffered serious damage. Wierd

     

     

     

    Also I think he was referring to what the St Judes storm brought to his location. His top gust was 47mph, not exactly going to tear the roof off peoples homes or cause mass disruption and death.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    Can we stop these comments some make attacking people for wishing for active/interesting weather on a weather forum now? thanks

     

    Also I think he was referring to what the St Judes storm brought to his location. His top gust was 47mph, not exactly going to tear the roof off peoples homes or cause mass disruption and death.

    Exactly!Posted Image

     

    I got 58mph here. Which was enouph to break a branch off of a few trees but that was all we had.

     

    Us storm enthusiasts like severe weather, so when the worst ended up affecting southeast england we felt like we didn't get what was promised i.e the 70-80mph wind gusts.

    Edited by wimblettben
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Some modest gusts likely along Bristol Channel coasts tomorrow afternoon and evening;

    post-12721-0-88248200-1383323541_thumb.jpost-12721-0-85565900-1383323550_thumb.j

    Bridgwater carnival is tomorrow night along with some firework displays in Burnham & Weston Super Mare so not ideal conditions for these events. Nothing noteable in itself, but with recent winds weakening tree and outdoor structures over the past week, along with an ever sudden ground with recent rains, it's enough to cause some further tree deaths and possible minor garden damage etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Let's get back on topic now guys n gals and enjoy the interesting weekend's weather ahead of us. Interesting it will be but let's hope folk stay safe.

     

    Judging by the current thinking, it does seem the main warning period has been delayed until Sunday band into Monday, nevertheless it could be a watch and wait scenario.

     

    1.

     
    Yellow warning of Rain

    Posted Image

    Dates Warning Chief Forecaster's assessment Weather Impact Matrix

    Issued at:
    1127 on Fri 1 Nov 2013

    Valid from:
    1800 on Sun 3 Nov 2013

    Valid to:
    1200 on Mon 4 Nov 2013

    Rain, heavy at times, is expected over southwest England late on Sunday before spreading eastwards to affect the rest of southern England overnight Sunday and through Monday morning. This additional rainfall, following recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.
    A frontal zone moving across the Atlantic this weekend is expected to extend eastwards across southwestern UK late on Sunday before spreading to the rest of southern England overnight Sunday and through Monday morning. Associated rain is likely to be heavy at times with accumulations typically between 10 and 20 mm and locally 30 mm or more. It will also become windy in English Channel coastal areas where gales may develop for a time during Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday.
    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Sorry chaps, I've had to do a bit of culling, please think carefully about whether your post actually adds to the reading value of this forum.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    For those of us looking slightly further ahead, beyond the weekend, I thought this posting from Phil nw was one worthy of reposting from the MOD thread.

     

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    Yes quite cold air building north of 60N now Karl and if we look at 06zGFS single figure max.s are showing for Scotland and N.Ireland over the weekend as that colder Polar Maritime air moves in behind those fronts.

    Posted Image Posted Image

     

    It does look like we may develop a north-south split in the next few days wrt temperatures -never quite as cold in the far south but with the mean jet running across the UK the north always more influenced by that colder air behind the rain bands.

     

    The mean ECM 850hPa chart for day 8

    Posted Image

     

    suggests a flatter looking euro high than previously modeled -so you may have a point about the outlook in the medium term looking less mild shall we say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Sorry chaps, I've had to do a bit of culling, please think carefully about whether your post actually adds to the reading value of this forum.

     

    I'm confused unless there was a mistake? the post just talking about the weather and hoping for interesting weather this weekend has gone though the rather abrupt reply with personal remarks remains

     

    Anyhow October was a pretty wet month at home, my Davis recorded 172.4mm of rain, though other areas not too far away e.g Dawlish recorded over 200mm, and stations on the eastern side of Dartmoor closer to 300mm with one at Haytor getting over 345.7mm.

    Definitely a wet month, wetter than any month last year for one or two locations, though coming after a dry summer and with no exceptional falls I haven't heard about too many flooding problems. The area could probably do without a run of very wet through winter months leading to similar conditions to last year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I'm confused unless there was a mistake? the post just talking about the weather and hoping for interesting weather this weekend has gone though the rather abrupt reply with personal remarks remains

     

    Anyhow October was a pretty wet month at home, my Davis recorded 172.4mm of rain, though other areas not too far away e.g Dawlish recorded over 200mm, and stations on the eastern side of Dartmoor closer to 300mm with one at Haytor getting over 345.7mm.

    Definitely a wet month, wetter than any month last year for one or two locations, though coming after a dry summer and with no exceptional falls I haven't heard about too many flooding problems. The area could probably do without a run of very wet through winter months leading to similar conditions to last year.

     

    You may or may not be interested to know that Egham (by my rain guage anyway) received 114.6mm for October - I would think quite a bit above average for over there.

     

    Here in Yatton, 137.7mm so not exceptionally wet but a tad wetter than average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    You may or may not be interested to know that Egham (by my rain guage anyway) received 114.6mm for October - I would think quite a bit above average for over there.

     

    Here in Yatton, 137.7mm so not exceptionally wet but a tad wetter than average.

     

    That is quite interesting, I have to guesstimate here not having a rain gauge or a good place to put one so thanks for that. I was thinking it seemed quite wet with a higher frequency of heavier rain (and a couple storms) making it here than normal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    I think that because of the recent storm just gone this coming depression for tomorrow night doesn't seem that much.

     

    But I destinctly remember a time last November when coastal 70mph gusts were forecast and 50mph inland, and there was a lot of talking about it then as we hadn't had a recent 70-80mph inland gusts producing storm. Don't forget that the storm on Monday was probably a once in 6 year event for us here down the south.

     

    So in all honesty, I think quite a few will be suprised at how strong the winds will be tomorrow evening.

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    Guest William Grimsley

    I think that because of the recent storm just gone this coming depression for tomorrow night doesn't seem that much.

     

    But I destinctly remember a time last November when coastal 70mph gusts were forecast and 50mph inland, and there was a lot of talking about it then as we hadn't had a recent 70-80mph inland gusts producing storm. Don't forget that the storm on Monday was probably a once in 6 year event for us here down the south.

     

    So in all honesty, I think quite a few will be suprised at how strong the winds will be tomorrow evening.

    I totally agree with you, Ben. I remember the storm 22/11/2012 very well. It was very windy that day. Also, I think that quite a few people will be surprised at the wind speed tomorrow, too. It is going to be a very windy day tomorrow, here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Waltham, near Basingstoke, Hants
  • Location: North Waltham, near Basingstoke, Hants

    I think that because of the recent storm just gone this coming depression for tomorrow night doesn't seem that much.

     

    But I destinctly remember a time last November when coastal 70mph gusts were forecast and 50mph inland, and there was a lot of talking about it then as we hadn't had a recent 70-80mph inland gusts producing storm. Don't forget that the storm on Monday was probably a once in 6 year event for us here down the south.

     

    So in all honesty, I think quite a few will be suprised at how strong the winds will be tomorrow evening.

    I agree going to be a very windy day. If the pressure of the low was to drop further than predicted could turn out messy. Was out running today and lots of loose branches still hanging in trees and whole trees leaning, these could easierly be finished off by 50mph gust. These sort of gusts could also be around for up to 6 hours. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I agree going to be a very windy day. If the pressure of the low was to drop further than predicted could turn out messy. Was out running today and lots of loose branches still hanging in trees and whole trees leaning, these could easierly be finished off by 50mph gust. These sort of gusts could also be around for up to 6 hours. 

     

    Indeed, tis worth repeating AWDs post from earlier today as it was based on the professional's thinking at the time.

     

    From Ian;

    "Still limited confidence on rain amounts & distribution this evening. Considerable flux in wet v dry/drier signal for e.g. Bristol. Conversely, confidence in an increasingly windy & showery story Sat PM is high. Gusts potentially 70mph Bristol Channel coasts with inland gusts fairly widely to around 50mph. Not as bad as Monday's storm but wider spread of high winds across the region. Given the high winds, any firework displays planned on Saturday evening need very cautious consideration (or arguably, postponed?)"

     

    So all in all, a very blustery day ahead, complete with sodden ground, weakened tree-limbs and striking firemen and women, we should all take great care. Whilst I'm stating the bleeding obvious there, there's no reason why we can't all enjoy the action too.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

    Not a Met Office warning but I myself have issued a...

     

    ***WEATHER WATCH FOR GALES FOR CORNWALL AND ISLES OF SCILLY: http://www.cciweather.co.uk/#/warnings/4573724904 ***

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    The wee small hours of the morning

     

    Met Office, now has a yellow wind warning out, on their website

     

    South-West and South Wales

     

    It's valid from noon today, until 9pm

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    Guest William Grimsley

    It was wet and mild with a strong wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 1.2 mm/hr 04:20 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.8 mm 04:37 Rainfall Yesterday: 2.4 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 13.8°C 13:53 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 16 mph 11:20 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 10 mph 12:36 Wind Run Yesterday: 69.9 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 189° S.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Personally, I'm surprised there isn't a larger spread of the yellow warning from the met, or an amber warning issued! I had an amber warning for the 'St Jude' storm, and the gusts predicted for me are basically the same!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Personally, I'm surprised there isn't a larger spread of the yellow warning from the met, or an amber warning issued! I had an amber warning for the 'St Jude' storm, and the gusts predicted for me are basically the same!

    Met office should really do a amber warning since its more widespread 

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    Guest William Grimsley

    Met office should really do a amber warning since its more widespread 

     

    I totally agree with you. The wind gusts which are likely to be 40 - 50 mph inland and 70 mph on the coasts in this storm will be not much stronger than the St Jude storm. But, the wind gusts which are likely to be 40 - 50 mph inland and 70 mph on the coasts in this storm will be more widespread and cause more damage than the St Jude storm.

    Edited by William Grimsley
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I'll just surmising that the strongest gusts will arrive with the most intense squalls, i.e. the winds will not be sustained for any length of time. Due to this, there would be no requirement for a warning covering strong winds but rather the troublesome rain. Anyway, whatever, we can't change their thinking but we can sit back and watch things develop.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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