South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[Rustynailer]

Also, note the similarity with current Temperature trends, my post from earlier. I'm trying not to scaremonger as that truly was an exceptional event, but this bears some resemblance, I guess. Warm SSTs, mild daytime Temperatures and lack of Frosts as a result all add up to a potentially wet n windy Autumn.

My thoughts today were more or less the same as yours, as I walked in a local forest in a strong gale this afternoon.

[knocker]

Gusts of 63 at Plymouth at the moment.

[Decee]

987 here. Rain is picking up, a few tiny tiny gusts but thats all.

[Beast of Plympton]

Got gusts of 50mph now and down to 983mb as well...

[Nights King]

Or have a listed evergreen oak which the council refuse to chop down despite it being 12 feet from house! ( We are 125m from coast!)

 

I'd soon remove that....  

 

You know how things are with old trees they get sick and die... it happens

[dec10snow]

It's odd, the met office 3 hourly forecast has my strongest gusts at 12am ie in 20 minutes time, with gusts at 49mph, yet, there hardly seems to be any wind at all outside? Can anyone give any sort of explanation why this could be?

[littlemissy]

Well this is interesting .......(sort of ) the wind an hour ago was picking up albeit slowly and now heavy rain but no wind at all..............is the real calm before the wind picks up again ?

[Sainsbo]

The rain definitely looks like it's intensifying on the latest radar - Not good news, we've already had almost half an inch here!

[lfcdude]

Well im awake from my nap, It's raining, But wind wise... well its calm, 

[littlemissy]

It's odd, the met office 3 hourly forecast has my strongest gusts at 12am ie in 20 minutes time, with gusts at 49mph, yet, there hardly seems to be any wind at all outside? Can anyone give any sort of explanation why this could be?

Ah you too decsnow .........I am wondering that too.................the rain is heavy but no wind at all.

[katemart]

There used to be a decent site that had flood stage for streams and then reported against stage boards, but cant remember it. They don't do hydrometrey here like they do in the US...but stream UNDER her kitchen. I assume its in a culvert and they have not just built a kitchen over a stream?

 

It is a stream running along the side of a small, country lane. The cottage is 200 years old so I guess it has always been there. I would upload the two pictures he posted to FB but still not sure how to do it!

 

Some idiot posted in reply that it's just rain and it always rains in Devon in autumn but of course I posted that, as a visitor, my friend is at much more risk than someone who knows the area very well. Even if the cottage has never flooded before, it only takes one small change in the local environment - a dead badger blocking a culvert or something - to turn bad weather into a life-threatening event. Makes me cross, the way people underestimate the weather!

 

990mb and falling rapidly here in the central South coast. 33mm rain so far today. Blustery.

[OldMetMan]

The best/worst is definitely yet to come. Check AWDs posts and OMMs from earlier for further analysis. The main event with regard to winds is only starting to kick in across the far SW as I type.

 

From the professional's perspective they will be looking into the potential for the explosive cyclogenesis element i.e. bombing from here on in.

 

Bedtime reading

 

It is now a case of us being careful what we wish for.

Hi GTLTW, I don't know about this one, the deepening should be a whole lot quicker if we are going to see the kind of pressure gradients that produce 80mph gusts, and the 22H chart doesn't really have that look. Pressure has fallen a fair bit, yes, but nothing excessive, not what you'd expect for explosive deepening.

 

I reckon this LP must be travelling at 40kts or more, so I'll stick my neck out and say the most rapid deepening will most likely be as it approaches the E coast later in the night.

 

Anyway, I may yet have cause to eat my words! We'll see. I'm off to bed and if the telephone wires outside start whistling in the wind, I'll get up early and get my video camera out!

[NessCottage]

local temperature graph

 

[dancing daisy]

Pouring with rain here but hardly a breeze. there is a very strange atmosphere out there.

 

Typically my roof has started to leak and the bedroom ceiling is starting to bow, 10cm approx from the light fitting so I've had to call someone out, but the chicken has said he won't get on the roof.  It's not even windy!

[john w]

It is a stream running along the side of a small, country lane. The cottage is 200 years old so I guess it has always been there. I would upload the two pictures he posted to FB but still not sure how to do it!

 

Some idiot posted in reply that it's just rain and it always rains in Devon in autumn but of course I posted that, as a visitor, my friend is at much more risk than someone who knows the area very well. Even if the cottage has never flooded before, it only takes one small change in the local environment - a dead badger blocking a culvert or something - to turn bad weather into a life-threatening event. Makes me cross, the way people underestimate the weather!

 

990mb and falling rapidly here in the central South coast. 33mm rain so far today. Blustery.

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/

 

knew it was in the public domain somewhere.

[Sungirl]

It is a stream running along the side of a small, country lane. The cottage is 200 years old so I guess it has always been there. I would upload the two pictures he posted to FB but still not sure how to do it!

 

Some idiot posted in reply that it's just rain and it always rains in Devon in autumn but of course I posted that, as a visitor, my friend is at much more risk than someone who knows the area very well. Even if the cottage has never flooded before, it only takes one small change in the local environment - a dead badger blocking a culvert or something - to turn bad weather into a life-threatening event. Makes me cross, the way people underestimate the weather!

 

990mb and falling rapidly here in the central South coast. 33mm rain so far today. Blustery.

 

 

I posted on FB earlier that a tree had fallen down in Pangbourne and some dufus who thinks this will be a damp squib said, on my fb, "well Pangbourne is full of trees"  as if everywhere isn't!!!

 

I live in Bracknell FOREST!!! It is called that for a reason.  (He was defriended )

 

989hPa here and falling 2.5 p/h

 

I can hold out no longer.  I am off to bed folks.  BUT I am taking the laptop up with me in case of high drama later on so I can pop back in 

 

Nite all, keep safe x

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi GTLTW, I don't know about this one, the deepening should be a whole lot quicker if we are going to see the kind of pressure gradients that produce 80mph gusts, and the 22H chart doesn't really have that look. Pressure has fallen a fair bit, yes, but nothing excessive, not what you'd expect for explosive deepening.

 

I reckon this LP must be travelling at 40kts or more, so I'll stick my neck out and say the most rapid deepening will most likely be as it approaches the E coast later in the night.

 

Anyway, I may yet have cause to eat my words! We'll see. I'm off to bed and if the telephone wires outside start whistling in the wind, I'll get up early and get my video camera out!

 

Thanks, I was hoping that would be the case because if explosive cyclogenesis kicks in, it would inevitable result in loss of life, being a truly dangerous phenomena. They had been many a non-official - 2.5mb to - 3.5mb per hour drop reported already, however, hence my heads up.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mumbles]

Wind has really picked up a lot here in the last 5 minutes!

[kaz]

Storm? what storm? we have no wind at all. just rain. OH wait I can confirm a leaf has just fallen of a tree.

Sorry only joking, just feeling a little smug.. I am just soo glad I am not going to be affected by this but am very sorry if people do have a few problems.

listening to all the hype on the news makes it sound like a cat 5 hurricane is arriving. Which it is NOT..

take care ....

 

kaz

[gottolovethisweather]

local temperature graph

 

 

That's a crazy Temperature rise, something's up.

[Mark Neal.]

Heavy Rain here. A total of 13.5mm today. Plenty more to come yet! Wind- 16mph. Gusting 25mph

[Nights King]

That's a crazy Temperature rise, something's up.

 

I was looking at it too it is a big jump are you sure a rogue badger isn't scratching its bum on the sensor or something?

 

only 11.4c here at moment.

[john w]

I posted on FB earlier that a tree had fallen down in Pangbourne and some dufus who thinks this will be a damp squib said, on my fb, "well Pangbourne is full of trees"  as if everywhere isn't!!!

 

I live in Bracknell FOREST!!! It is called that for a reason.  (He was defriended )

 

989hPa here and falling 2.5 p/h

 

I can hold out no longer.  I am off to bed folks.  BUT I am taking the laptop up with me in case of high drama later on so I can pop back in 

 

Nite all, keep safe x

 

It is full of trees I can confirm

[egret]

wind eased for a while here despite pressure continuing to drop, but it has now picked up again to full gale, not howling though. Normally  we get the  strongest wind when the rate of change of air pressure alters (ie on the turn from falling pressure to flat or rising pressure).

 

That point has not yet been reached so I expect stronger wind to follow.

 

Interesting that it is relatively  calm not so very far North of here and also in Barnstable

Edited October 28, 2013 by egret

[dec10snow]

Ah you too decsnow .........I am wondering that too.................the rain is heavy but no wind at all.

Indeed! The rainfall rates seem to have relaxed though in the past 10 minutes or so... But still not seeing my 50mph gusts that are predicted for just about now!!