Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[Bobby]

Anyone here know what the weather will be like in Ash, Somerset on Saturday afternoon/evening please...family get together for bonfire, fireworks, chilli, jacket spuds, hot dogs and hot chocolate! About 30 going!

 

At the moment it looks like rain at first clearing to blustery showers, very windy too with gales possible. Not great unfortunately.

[bobbydog]

Anyone here know what the weather will be like in Ash, Somerset on Saturday afternoon/evening please...family get together for bonfire, fireworks, chilli, jacket spuds, hot dogs and hot chocolate! About 30 going!

 

ohh...   get the bonfire built early and covered, maybe get a (very) sturdy gazebo type thing set up. its not looking good as of now but it might be ok if you prepare for the worst weather. just keep an eye on the forecasts and maybe it might not be as bad as it seems now. always sad when the weather spoils our plans but if we have alternative plans in place, its not so bad

[Guest William Grimsley]

It looks like being a very wet day on Friday with localised flooding in places and a very windy day on Saturday with gales in places. They are 2 days that could be very interesting, here.

Edited October 30, 2013 by William Grimsley

[wimblettben]

At the moment I would suggest anyone planning to have a bonfire and fireworks for Saturday should probably cancle and move it to another day.

[johnholmes]

I note surface pressure is beginning to fall notably in the region around the low pressure west of the Azores.

 

Somewhat more than currently progged for this time. In a region with few observations we rely on 3 hour updates. So hours to look at the synopsis maps are 3pm/6pm/9pm/00/3am/6am etc..

 

If we examine the low at the moment we can see that a buoy/ship? to the north of the low is reporting rapidly falling pressure (-5.2hPa in previous 3 hours) with a pressure of 1013.4hPa and is reporting a Cumulonimbus which makes me believe it is a ship report. Winds are easterly @ 35 knots.

 

The centre of the low is estimated at 1009hPa.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013103018&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

--

 

The system was only estimated to reach this depth tomorrow at 12z, according to the most recent ECMWF output.

 

So is deepening ahead of this schedule.

 

 

 

Current Analysis

 

 

the Fax chart, not avlbl for 12z tomorrow suggests lower than that?

[Matty M]

Bit of a difference on the 18z. The downgrade in intensity of the disturbance behind the initial low enables more cold dry air be ingested into the initial system which adds to its intensity.

 

This system could yet be a danger to southern Britain.

For example if there was no kink in the isobars to the west of the disturbance circa 30hrs it would enable a cleaner development of the storm.

 

Even at this intensity there is potential for 50kt gusts on some coastal southeastern locations of England.

 

[ihatecoldweather]

They really ought to be careful about this one, just because they got last week right doesn't mean everything they say will happen. They may have got it right last weekend but everyone will have '87 in the back of their minds if/when we're told this one won't be as bad

[Tom Jarvis]

At the moment I would suggest anyone planning to have a bonfire and fireworks for Saturday should probably cancle and move it to another day.

That is easier said than done when it is a big display for a village where they close the main road through the village!!

[widnesgas]

I thought the north west was going to be effected by this one? So are we in the clear then?

[karlos1983]

They really ought to be careful about this one, just because they got last week right doesn't mean everything they say will happen. They may have got it right last weekend but everyone will have '87 in the back of their minds if/when we're told this one won't be as bad

 

The fact they got last week spot on just goes to show how much the resources they have available have come on. I can't see a repeat of 87, not only because of the better technology for forecasting, but if things did change quickly, the power of social media etc, would spread the word quick enough to make a difference IMO.

[ihatecoldweather]

The fact they got last week spot on just goes to show how much the resources they have available have come on. I can't see a repeat of 87, not only because of the better technology for forecasting, but if things did change quickly, the power of social media etc, would spread the word quick enough to make a difference IMO.

Although the problem could be with such a unpredictable storm it could change really at the last minute AND could strike in the middle of the night. There are still instances where the MO etc get things wrong, so I would never rule it out

[ihatecoldweather]

Got a quick question. Whats the chance of Friday Low moving just a bit more north, bringing 60-70mph winds widely across SE 

[radiohead]

Got a quick question. Whats the chance of Friday Low moving just a bit more north, bringing 60-70mph winds widely across SE 

 

Probably less than 5%.

[ihatecoldweather]

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayxtest;ct=9778~East%20Grinstead;sess=#forecast

 

 

54mph forecast for me on Sunday which I assume is gusts? Still the trees have been weakened, and with saturated ground this could still cause problems

[Matty M]

Got a quick question. Whats the chance of Friday Low moving just a bit more north, bringing 60-70mph winds widely across SE 

Gusts to 60/70mph in coastal areas?

 

25% IMO.

[radiohead]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayxtest;ct=9778~East%20Grinstead;sess=#forecast

 

 

54mph forecast for me on Sunday which I assume is gusts? Still the trees have been weakened, and with saturated ground this could still cause problems

 

That's Sunday though. Friday's low looks like more of a rain event with potential for some strong winds in the channel but not widely over the southeast.

 

Saturday/Sunday's low could still develop, but the majority of the models have been trending away from a deep low, so I wouldn't expect too much in terms of winds but probably plenty of rain Friday-Sunday.

Edited October 30, 2013 by radiohead

[Roger J Smith]

Temp/dew point readings have been above 20 C in the warm sector of the slowly developing Friday low, pointing to its abundant moisture potential. Meanwhile, the model consensus for Saturday's wind event seems to have shifted slightly south although it hasn't really changed in terms of rather moderate gust potential.

[Coast]

Netweather NMM charts (animated) show progress of the gusts on Saturday. This looks to have a mainly South coast event with the SW coming in for the biggest gusts, then slowly transferring up The English Channel:

 

Going to be wet tomorrow too:

 

[radiohead]

0Z NAE showing Friday's low creating sustained winds of 45mph in the channel while the next low approaches from the west.

 

[Coast]

GFS has the Saturday gusts biased towards the South coast as well:

 

 

89km/hr gusts over Northern France and some of the Channel equates to 55 mph

[tinybill]

watching  BBC  breakfast  carol  k  sounding  a  bit worried  about Saturday  storm this morning

[The PIT]

Well on Saturday we may pass 50 mph gust for the first time this Autumn.

[Matty M]

The situation with Saturday's system has changed somewhat today.

 

Models are now showing a system deepening as it approaches the British Isles. 

 

A number of threatening solutions progged.

[Cyclonic]

Nuuuu, Ive not stolen the weather station yet at the Needles..wwill get a false reading...

Morning Matt M    lol and Morning Everyone else

Edited October 31, 2013 by Cyclonic

[Skullzrulerz]

Is the storm coming friday?