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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3


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Well I for one am glad of the warnings the Met Office put out, Posted Image  Being a rural smallholder, I like being given a heads-up to go put straps over the most vunerable chicken houses and move livestock away from areas where there might be falling branches.

 

The early warnings have also given us the chance to discover a  mouse had chewed through the wires of the generator, and my OH unexpectedly had to spend ages mending it. And the time to do a quick service and check the chainsaw is running okay. These warnings gives us a kick up the backside to go an make a few preparations.  Even if it is not as bad as the other storms of recent years, we expect power-outages here.  We get them for nearly every storm anyway, as we are in a very wooded area. So I doubt this one will be an exception.

 

At around 8am not a tree was rustling a single leaf all was dead calm,  Now we have a really brisk breeze and it is getting gusty.. 

Hi guys new member but have been reading since last night through a post biggin linked on a palace forum.

Anyway as the qoute indicated above I am in petworth (hampers green) and it is getting quite strong, I also have family in selsey in laws live there and my parents are caravaning on west sands (I told them to go home last night but they would rather hang it out then go back to croydon which I wouldn't blame them in normal circumstances)

I certainly think this has potential to be damaging to us in the south but then I am not an expert like most on here so what do I know.

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http://www.ukweathercams.co.uk

 

The ones I'm looking at are

 

Dawlish (as posted by someone earlier)

http://www.livestream.com/rcdawlish

 

Bognor Regis (also posted earlier)

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

 

Bexhill live weather data

http://www.bexhillsc.co.uk/index.php/weather/bsc-weather-station.html

Edited by Essex Easterly.
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I reckon what Edinburgh and Central belt saw in Nov/Dec 2011 is far worse than what this will be. am I right in saying the roof on Waverley station was very nearly stripped off due to winds over 100MPH. Main media teams were not there to cover that though were they! Cracks me up.

My Gran in Kilmarnock almost every year tells us about frequent powercuts and high winds that they experience too. 

 

Well, you've answered your own query as to why the media don't cover it then really haven't you? If it happens frequently it's not exactly news. When was the last time the south had widespread damage and power outages from a storm? Certainly not in recent years!

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The main storm hasn't arrived yet and the first power cut from a fallen tree has happened

 

More than 1,000 homes without power in Pangbourne, Berkshire after report falling tree brought down power line

 

 

There was a power cut and fallen tree in Wales a couple of hours ago too http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-10-27/power-cut-in-neath-area-due-to-weather/

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*Amber Warning issued by the Met Office in conjunction with Netweather.tv*

 

 

Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45

Valid from - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45

Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00

 

Outbreaks of verbal diarrhoea currently affecting parts of the thread are forecast to rapidly intensify during the forecasting period. Normal members are advised to take great care and the necessary precautions such as reporting all instances of verbal diarrhoea and not be sucked in by it.

 

 

hint hint! Posted Image

I would have thought there would have been a chance of localised flooding, or are we not in that deep of s**t yet Posted Image

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I'm finding this animation interesting.

Thank you John for posting the link ealier.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

The system appeared to be on a bee line for Biscay and France earliier.   But then, nearing the SW approaches, it seemed to pause, take a breath, then decided to make a run towards the Channel.

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Hi guys new member but have been reading since last night through a post biggin linked on a palace forum.

Anyway as the qoute indicated above I am in petworth (hampers green) and it is getting quite strong, I also have family in selsey in laws live there and my parents are caravaning on west sands (I told them to go home last night but they would rather hang it out then go back to croydon which I wouldn't blame them in normal circumstances)

I certainly think this has potential to be damaging to us in the south but then I am not an expert like most on here so what do I know.

 

Welcome Daniel!

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Well, you've answered your own query as to why the media don't cover it then really haven't you? If it happens frequently it's not exactly news. When was the last time the south had widespread damage and power outages from a storm? Certainly not in recent years!

Its still severe though and a threat to peoples lives....

 

Quite often too actually, only the other week Hayling Island?

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Sorry, but LOLd lots at this true statement.

 

On topic, Sometimes the channel has a funneling effect, making wind stronger, anyone like to explain to me why this happens? and is that what is happening this time?

I'm sorry I can't explain that but this is the shipping and Gale warnings for my area Wight, it would certainly seem the funnelling effect could happen.

 

Wight
Gale warnings - Issued: 0948 UTC Sun 27 Oct

Southwesterly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 soon, increasing violent storm force 11 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1030 UTC Sun 27 Oct Wind Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, becoming cyclonic severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time, perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Sea State Rough or very rough. Weather Rain or squally showers. Visibility Moderate or poor.
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Its still severe though and a threat to peoples lives....

 

But this is utterly irelevent to the thread - it's a thread to discuss the storm incoming later today nothing more. If you want to make a thread to talk about media bias or the possibility of further storm systems affecting other parts of the country next week feel free, but don't do so in this thread.

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Michael Fish was also on the BBC news channel this morninghttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24689376

With all due respect to Michael Fish, why are they interviewing him? Granted he has knowledge but why are they are not interviewing one of Met Office senior forecasters or the BBC current forecasters? Michael Fish has retired and trying to connect the possible storm with 1987......:slap: Edited by Weather-history
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With all due respect to Michael Fish, why are they interviewing him? Granted he has knowledge but why are they are not interviewing one of Met Office senior forecasters or the BBC current forecasters? Michael Fish has retired and trying to connect the possible storm with 1987......:slap:

 

Can I just ask - when Dermot asked Michael Fish why the storms tend to turn the the left or move more north when they are deeper he replied "because that's just what they do and these storms can have a mind of their own"  - is this true or is there some scientific explanation behind this phenomenon?  Interesting stuff all the same...

Edited by P-M
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With all due respect to Michael Fish, why are they interviewing him? Granted he has knowledge but why are they are not interviewing one of Met Office senior forecasters or the BBC current forecasters? Michael Fish has retired and trying to connect the possible storm with 1987......:slap:

 

Can I just ask - when Dermot asked Michael Fish why the storms tend to turn the the left or move more north when they are deeper he replied "because that's just what they do and these storms can have a mind of their own"  - is this true or is there some scientific explanation behind this phenomenon?  Interesting stuff all the same...

 

I'm not scientist, but I know enough to know that, with all due respect to the man, that is utter nonsense. There has to be a scientific explanation.

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With all due respect to Michael Fish, why are they interviewing him? Granted he has knowledge but why are they are not interviewing one of Met Office senior forecasters or the BBC current forecasters? Michael Fish has retired and trying to connect the possible storm with 1987......:slap:Can I just ask - when Dermot asked Michael Fish why the storms tend to turn the the left or move more north when they are deeper he replied "because that's just what they do and these storms can have a mind of their own" - is this true or is there some scientific explanation behind this phenomenon? Interesting stuff all the same...

The Rosenbloom Rule states that deep storms can go left of the model-forecast track.
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I'm not scientist, but I know enough to know that, with all due respect to the man, that is utter nonsense. There has to be a scientific explanation.

 

 

Well that's what Dermot asked  he wanted to know why they tend to move north when they are deep or deepening - thought there was something in this until that response lol

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Can I just ask - when Dermot asked Michael Fish why the storms tend to turn the the left or move more north when they are deeper he replied "because that's just what they do and these storms can have a mind of their own"  - is this true or is there some scientific explanation behind this phenomenon?  Interesting stuff all the same...

 

I was wondering this. My guesstimate would be that it has something to do with the interaction of the atmosphere vs the sea (or lack of it) in that part of Europe that seems to lead the storms up the channel rather than across straight to middle Europe.

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Well, I think the alerts given by the Meto are sensible, best err on the side of caution - nothing wrong with that!

 

I find it fascinating that such a storm can be higlighted so far in advance.

 

btw, I don't post very often but really enjoy reading & viewing all the analysis - thanks to all

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Either way, if that was Michael Fish's response, that's pretty poor for a man of his experience. He either doesn't know something he should, or just couldn't be bothered to explain it.

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I find it fascinating that such a storm can be higlighted so far in advance.

 

Quite agree. It seems remarkable that this system was picked up this far in advance before it was possible to physically measure it at all. I get quite annoyed by people who still state that we are no better at forecasting weather now than in the 80's for reasons like this.

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Either way, if that was Michael Fish's response, that's pretty poor for a man of his experience. He either doesn't know something he should, or just couldn't be bothered to explain it.

 

You don't think that its more to do with the target audience? The BBC are frequently accused of dumbing down weather reports so that the 'public' can understand. They can't win either way. Explain in full detail, most the audience wont understand or to simplify and the purists/scientists complain of lack of information or incorrect explanation. Its a hard thing to balance.

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