The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13 16z----->

[cyclonic happiness]

Even at 24, modelled by ECM likely to be wrong! GFS all the way folks sadly, no easterly mid Dec

I just wish the could program the models to not produce easterlies at all in FI, that would keep 99% of people on here happy.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I just wish the could program the models to not produce easterlies at all in FI, that would keep 99% of people on here happy.

 

yeah, but ECM model was way off even with this northerly, when in FI, GFS was closest all along, nearly every run showing quick blast then westerlies on Saturday

 

ECM was modelling fantasy snowfests

[Essan]

There's no point in looking for good snow here (south Midlands) unless 1) there is very cold air in situ over Britain, and its been here for days or better still weeks and 2) there is an active Atlantic system coming in from the west against this cold air and 3) there's a good likelihood that the European high pressure system maintaining our cold air is not going to give in ......Or, we have 1) and then a maor channel low pushes up from the south. But that's as likely as winning the lottery 3 times in a week.December 2010 was an exception to this rule.

[conor123]

Jeeze if today's chart's are anything to go by were be lucky to see the sun this side of Christmas, the Northerly downgrade was coming all along but the insufferable mild upper highs (aka more 9c day, 7c night sunless muck) are as bad as it gets, the Telford Sun Shield really is making up for it's technical issues in July isn't it

Edited December 2, 2013 by conor123

[cyclonic happiness]

There's no point in looking for good snow here (south Midlands) unless 1) there is very cold air in situ over Britain, and its been here for days or better still weeks and 2) there is an active Atlantic system coming in from the west against this cold air and 3) there's a good likelihood that the European high pressure system maintaining our cold air is not going to give in ......Or, we have 1) and then a maor channel low pushes up from the south. But that's as likely as winning the lottery 3 times in a week.December 2010 was an exception to this rule.

Even in 2010 we had to suffer with just 1/2" of snow whereas EVERYONE else both in this region and Britain as a whole, got over a foot. Bitter cold means nothing without snow.

 

March this year was brilliant and not even in winter, and the snowfalls in december last years and january this year, blew 2010 out of the water even though we hit -17'c here in dec 2010.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17-20 Jan, was best snow in years, then Mar 22-24th just as good, with time of year thawing snow, not mild air

 

still remember a fully intact snowman mind you as late as 2 Apr

[Dancerwithwings]

IrememberAtlantic252, on 02 Dec 2013 - 20:14, said:

yeah, but ECM model was way off even with this northerly, when in FI, GFS was closest all along, nearly every run showing quick blast then westerlies on Saturday

ECM was modelling fantasy snowfests

 

 

 

All models are not perfect that's certain and some are better that others but you can never say one is always better or worse that another.

 

But saying that the ECM was showing a snow fest ( and yes they were great to see) But also other models were, Including the GFS was as well.

 

If this isn't a snowfest what is?

 

 

Also when saying ..."when in FI, GFS was closest all along, nearly every run showing quick blast then westerlies" .........You have a short memory or maybe just selective methinks.

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[cyclonic happiness]

Why did Shafali on Midlands today say that it's going to be "cloudier and milder on thursday"????

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Why did Shafali on Midlands today say that it's going to be "cloudier and milder on thursday"????

 

Shef is crap! never watch her, an embarrassment

[I remember Atlantic 252]

latest GFS run 18Z, still giving us snow, but winds seem a little more northerly? meaning streamer may miss me to the west

[TonyH]

Ahead of the cold front some relatively mild air Thursday may be 9c.

Edited December 2, 2013 by TonyH

[conor123]

18z is actually a nice upgrade shockingly with colder uppers Thursday Night and the high much further north for the weekend meaning frosty night's and wait for it...sunshine!

Continue that trend please!

[conor123]

Oh dear, another sunless miserable day and now Friday and the weekend have had the nails drilled in the coffin! typical.

[Laurie61]

Looks like the wind could be the talking point Thursday? 

 

[conor123]

:lol: it really is pathetic how every remotely exciting weather event since August has turned into stratocumulus nothingness!! 

It's not even the high pressure and mildness that's the awful thing about the outlook, it's the fact that the sun's appeared maybe twice in the past two weeks and today's charts pretty much suggest we won't see the sun for another 2 weeks after Friday, not good for a S.A.D sufferer! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

it really is pathetic how every remotely exciting weather event since August has turned into stratocumulus nothingness!! 

It's not even the high pressure and mildness that's the awful thing about the outlook, it's the fact that the sun's appeared maybe twice in the past two weeks and today's charts pretty much suggest we won't see the sun for another 2 weeks after Friday, not good for a S.A.D sufferer! 

 

At least no rain after Thursday! an amazing setup for Dec, wettest month of the year

[conor123]

Have to laugh really, even the -5 isotherm barely reaches us Thursday Night now !!! 

8c now being shown for Friday, compared with 1c two days ago! 

Edited December 3, 2013 by conor123

[TonyH]

At least no rain after Thursday! an amazing setup for Dec, wettest month of the year

No it is not, not much difference between Oct, Nov and Dec but marginally October is the wettest in Staffs:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/penkridge.html

Have to laugh really, even the -5 isotherm barely reaches us Thursday Night now !!! 

8c now being shown for Friday, compared with 1c two days ago! 

Even as far back as Sunday when I did my weekly weather guide other scenarios were being played out in the model output however such as a chilly high and westerlies by the weekend as I stated:

 

Although this cold snap for the end of the week seems likely, the models have not been unanimous over it, and so it must be mentioned here that there is still the chance that the really cold air ends up passing to our east. 

Edited December 4, 2013 by TonyH

[conor123]

I was expecting a major downgrade to but still thought we'd get a chilly, frosty sunny day out of it, thank goodness there's some sunshine today as it now looks grey and drizzly for the foreseeable future!

[cyclonic happiness]

Great view if the jet stream over us atm :-)

[TonyH]

it really is pathetic how every remotely exciting weather event since August has turned into stratocumulus nothingness!! 

It's not even the high pressure and mildness that's the awful thing about the outlook, it's the fact that the sun's appeared maybe twice in the past two weeks and today's charts pretty much suggest we won't see the sun for another 2 weeks after Friday, not good for a S.A.D sufferer! 

In spite of this November had above average sunshine across the Midlands:

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html

Edited December 4, 2013 by TonyH

[Bishop Brennan]

Met Office Warnings for West Midlands:

Weather Warnings of severe and extreme weather from the Met Office - Yellow Warning of Wind for West Midlands

 

Yellow Warning of Wind for West Midlands :

Staffordshire

Shropshire

Stoke-on-Trent

Telford and Wrekin

Warwickshire

West Midlands Conurbation

Worcestershire

Herefordshire

 

Valid from 0200 Thu 05 Dec to 1600 Thu 05 Dec

 

Bish

[Staffordshire]

The wind is strong here this morning, still a bit of time for it to strengthen

[Bishop Brennan]

Very strong winds here right now. The six hour wind speeds animation on XC Weather shows how much they have picked up since the early hours.

 

Bish

[TonyH]

Why did Shafali on Midlands today say that it's going to be "cloudier and milder on thursday"????

I guess it's hats off to Shefali Oza!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/coleshill_latest_weather.html