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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13 16z----->

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Bleurgh yet ANOTHER overcast grim miserable day to add to the countless number there's been since August, the downgrades to the cold spell don't come as a surprise, everything of remote excitement this Autumn has turned into stratocumulus and drizzle.

 going off 06Z we have about a 12 hour window of possible snow (tues 3am to 3pm) but probably no precip between then

 

tuesday evening turns milder from the west

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afternoon every1 and so the drama starts again for the next 4-5 months. So guys how r we looking snow wise for next week? Or has it all gon tits up.

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Dull, dull, dull but dry so far. Will today finally be dry? Yesterday just had a bit of early drizzle, so getting there. Very, very tedious Autumn, every attempt at a frost has been spoilt by cloud invading before sunrise.

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What's the average for daytime temperatures this time of year? Around 10-13C isn't it? Typical November weather this weekend anyway.

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Brilliant UKMO this evening with the shortwave further west and then cold air from the east, GFS remains unexciting however with it turning milder Tuesday Night and then that snoozy high pressure cold which looks sunny on paper but ends up being 3c by night 5c by day with stratomania. 

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Maybe boring to you conor but after all the rain this autumn a prolonged cold anticyclonic spell is just what we need, nice to be able to enjoy the countryside without worrying about lots of surface water and calm late autumn brings fantastic looking scenes, today had this lovely golden autumn feel especially early morning.

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Oh believe me after this autumn I'll happily welcome an anticyclonic spell if it means frosty night's and sunny days but bar the UKMO all charts point to my most feared weather of all, anticyclonic gloom.

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Oh believe me after this autumn I'll happily welcome an anticyclonic spell if it means frosty night's and sunny days but bar the UKMO all charts point to my most feared weather of all, anticyclonic gloom.

I'd rather have anything other than the zonality of the last month.

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Finally we managed a rain-free day, first since 9th October. Almost worth celebrating except I see those dreaded words "anticyclonic gloom"- that would just be the maggots on the rubbish if we ended up with a load of that after finally finishing this epic wet spell. Clear, frosty nights and sunny days please if we get a dry anticyclone!

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Good morning. Not looking as great for the week ahead but as we all know, what on a global scale is a tiny shift can mean huge changes for us. Whatever happens this week won't tell us about the prospects for the winter ahead anyway so no need for disappointment yet. I say this every year, if we had been looking at a situation like this in late March after a winter of nothing then fair enough, it would be very depressing and frustrating. But to get out first chance (albeit dwindling one!) in mid November is pretty good going.

 

Personally, I'm expecting something along the lines of the last week of October 2008 on Wednesday. Very wet but gradually turning to wet snow in heavier bursts. Not settling though. That one was a good early surprise and set us up for greater things to come in winter proper.

 

As for today? Same old same old really. Very still, damp and very grey.

Edited by Gord
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HI, everyone. Have you all had a good summer?

 

Well, with christmas edging ever closer and the promise of some frosts, even the tempting talk of snow for next week, I thought it time to log back in and see what you all make of it. Especial as I've just read this http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK

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Yet another sunless dark day today Posted Image after looking at today's charts it's definitely time to get the sun lamp out.

Edited by conor123

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Yet another sunless dark day today Posted Image after looking at today's charts it's definitely time to get the sun lamp out.

 

Could have the sun back by the end of the week hopefully...if the cloud from the north-easterly doesn't roll in this far inland, which i suspect it might. The easterly of late January 2012 springs to mind. Cloudy and cold and frost free for days on end (although this won't be as cold as that one). Fingers crossed we manage to eek our some brightness somewhere. 

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FI on GFS could be very cold, difficult to tell under a high, but hopefully a clear high with sunny days and maybe even ice days

 

but 2 horrendous wet days to get out of the way, mon and wed, think a small chance of a smattering of snow on tues between 3-9 am

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Think I'll declare myself fully given up on this one. Busy week ahead at work anyway so mind will be elsewhere.

 

Besides, it's hardly like the let down of December 2012.

 

However, all the talk of cold weather has put me in the mood for the season ahead. A lot more to come I'm sure.

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Think I'll declare myself fully given up on this one. Busy week ahead at work anyway so mind will be elsewhere.

 

Besides, it's hardly like the let down of December 2012.

 

However, all the talk of cold weather has put me in the mood for the season ahead. A lot more to come I'm sure.

 

Give up on what? all we were due was a smattering of snow on tuesday, still a possibility, then always going to turn milder wednesday, then hopefully cold and dry by friday under that high

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Give up on what? all we were due was a smattering of snow on tuesday, still a possibility, then always going to turn milder wednesday, then hopefully cold and dry by friday under that high

 

And given how most Novembers (exceptions of 2008 and 2010) turn out, don't you think the chance of even a smattering is something to look out for this early in this part of the country? All I'm saying is that it doesn't seem worth looking out for anymore. I was never expecting to fling open the curtains on Tuesday morning to a crisp and deep winter wonderland. As a weather enthusiast, it doesn't take a lot to grab my interest.

 

Sadly, that high at the end of the week may bring a lot of cloud with it, and that certainly wouldn't interest me at all.

Edited by Gord

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 All I'm saying is that it doesn't seem worth looking out for anymore. I was never expecting to fling open the curtains on Tuesday morning to a crisp and deep winter wonderland.As a weather enthusiast, it doesn't take a lot to grab my interest.

 

 

 

"All I'm saying is that it doesn't seem worth looking out for anymore".... In my eyes it does,Yes things are very marginal but over the next 4 days alot can happen,

In Oct 2008 the snow we had wasn't even in the forecast and we know what happened there Posted Image Sometimes best snow events are the ones that catch us out Posted Image

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"All I'm saying is that it doesn't seem worth looking out for anymore".... In my eyes it does,Yes things are very marginal but over the next 4 days alot can happen,

In Oct 2008 the snow we had wasn't even in the forecast and we know what happened there Posted Image Sometimes best snow events are the ones that catch us out Posted Image

 

Very true...maybe I should re-word that. With the week I've got ahead at work, I'm not going to sit up late lampost watching! That's what I mean! Good luck as always to those who are putting in the hours. And now I sound like I'm backtracking more than any weather model!

 

October 2008 was a surprise...and involved no sitting up late at all. All turned to snow during the afternoon hours.

Edited by Gord
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Interesting developements for wednesday on gfs 6z.... Something to keep an eye on...

post-15202-0-90804700-1384768709_thumb.j

post-15202-0-37386800-1384768719_thumb.j

Edited by WillinGlossop

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Not sure why everyone goes on about the winter of 2010 being amazing.  Yes, we had snow and cold for most of December 2010 but by the new year it had all gone and the rest of the winter was fairly mild.  Apart from December i wouldn't have classed winter 2010/11 as one to remember particularly.

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Not sure why everyone goes on about the winter of 2010 being amazing.  Yes, we had snow and cold for most of December 2010 but by the new year it had all gone and the rest of the winter was fairly mild.  Apart from December i wouldn't have classed winter 2010/11 as one to remember particularly.

 

I suspect if most members were given the choice of enduring two months of murky nothingness coupled with one genuinely record-breaking month for cold and snow, they'd jump at the chance. Especially when that month effectively extends back to include the final week of the previous one as well.

 

December 2010 was such an astonishing month for sustained cold, it was bound to completely overshadow the rest of that particular winter.

 

Bish

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Ahh roll on tomorrow, another truly miserable day today with added rain for good measure, ick.

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