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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13


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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    expect red on Sunday this beast could be or worse then the great storm 23 years ago [/quote

    I doubt it will be worse but Jay said on the weather forecast at 15:00 that those powerful gusts on the south coast could definitely get inland also and he seemed confident that this was going to be a very bad storm ...

     

    The Great Storm was 26 years ago. Imagine how much trees grow in that time.

     

    Wherever you are either stay put if it's safe, or travel home Sunday or even tonight but don't leave it too late in case you get stuck in a traffic jam. Don't go out in it. Nearly everyone who was killed last time was usually on the road. Sadly a tree fell right into the cab of a fire engine killing both crewmen.

     

    If you're about to give birth ask the hospital for advice - a good idea is find accommodation nearby just for Sunday night. Don't try to get to a hospital in labour, you're better off at home, but ring 999.

     

    I'm amazed at the number of people who still don't know what might be coming. Just went round to my sister's and a farmer friend had no idea about it. He left pretty sharpish when I mentioned it.

    Edited by Iceni
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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    There were lots of great storm it seems. 1987 was 26 years ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    There were lots of great storm it seems. 1987 was 26 years ago.

     

    Had a blonde moment Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

    I'm amazed at the number of people who still don't know what might be coming.

    most ridiculous story - counter girl in newsagents said she hadn't heard - her till was opposite the newspaper display and it was on all the front pages

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

     

    If it were me Reef I would be planning to leave Bournemouth on Sunday rather than Monday in all honesty, based on current predictions. At least that way you are hopefully travelling ahead of the worst of the weather, not behind, or worse still, in amongst it. Just my opinion. Posted Image

    Yes I would agree with that tooPosted Image  Best wishes RS for the safety of the caravan sitePosted Image

     

    I think that some perspective needs to be kept about the storm on Sunday night/Monday. It looks grim for a period for sure early on Monday but it is not going to be as bad as 1987, so best to not keep mentioning this (even in comparison) because that simply panics people more than necessary. Its a case of being realistic and keeping oneself safe, but not going OTT with panic buying and emergency strategies. 

     

    The NAE suggests that the strong winds will be exiting as early as 9am on Monday morning but I am not sure that the model is in line yet with the METO consensus of this morning.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Posted
  • Location: herne bay,kent
  • Weather Preferences: lots of snow and cold crisp mornings! thunder storms!
  • Location: herne bay,kent

    when are the next charts due?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    The Great Storm was 26 years ago. Imagine how much trees grow in that time.

     

    Wherever you are either stay put if it's safe, or travel home Sunday or even tonight but don't leave it too late in case you get stuck in a traffic jam. Don't go out in it. Nearly everyone who was killed last time was usually on the road. Sadly a tree fell right into the cab of a fire engine killing both crewmen.

     

    If you're about to give birth ask the hospital for advice - a good idea is find accommodation nearby just for Sunday night. Don't try to get to a hospital in labour, you're better off at home, but ring 999.

     

    I'm amazed at the number of people who still don't know what might be coming. Just went round to my sister's and a farmer friend had no idea about it. He left pretty sharpish when I mentioned it.

    Presumably he's referring to the Burns Day storm of 1990.

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    Posted
  • Location: gone for now
  • Weather Preferences: any weather
  • Location: gone for now

    4.30pm BBC news weather report has a big red blob over just about everything south of Brum.

     

    Better invest in some stronger wig tape...

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    The storm is only just developing and right now is a depression in the Atlantic but as it interacts with the power of the jet stream it will rapidly deepen under explosive cyclogenesis.

    post-10773-0-74519900-1382801958_thumb.j

    Due to the deepening and strengthening of this storm there is the potential of damaging gales anywhere south of the north midlands so this region should definitely brace itself during Monday.

    post-10773-0-66299200-1382802039_thumb.j

    There is a increasing risk of severe disruption associated with this system and there is still the possibility of a sting jet developing across southern England.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    The storm is only just developing and right now is a depression in the Atlantic but as it interacts with the power of the jet stream it will rapidly deepen under explosive cyclogenesis.

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    Due to the deepening and strengthening of this storm there is the potential of damaging gales anywhere south of the north midlands so this region should definitely brace itself during Monday.

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    There is a increasing risk of severe disruption associated with this system and there is still the possibility of a sting jet developing across southern England.

    thanks m k all i say its  not looking  good  for  us  on  monday

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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    Had a blonde moment Posted Image

    Just Joshing ! Couldnt resist, sorry

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    gfs 12z

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    no change

     

    jet at 13.00 monday

     

    Posted Image

    looks a tad ominous again

     

     

    waiting for ukmo and fax charts

     

    around 6pm update

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

    Thank you so much to Tamara and John and MKSA,

     

    You three have really helped me to learn a lot regarding this upcoming storm Posted Image

     

    I don't think any of us can really fully see what will happen till it arrives. Having lived through '87, I give full respect to Mother Nature, she can definitely throw unexpected surprises!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.

    thanks m k all i say its  not looking  good  for  us  on  Monday

     err yep. ... Was thinking this was just a load of hype up until this morning but not sooo sure now. This may end up being a winter storm to remember here in the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Thank you so much to Tamara and John and MKSA,

     

    You three have really helped me to learn a lot regarding this upcoming storm Posted Image

     

    I don't think any of us can really fully see what will happen till it arrives. Having lived through '87, I give full respect to Mother Nature, she can definitely throw unexpected surprises!

    Hiya Jan - hope you okPosted Image

     

    Well barely 36 hrs away and there is quite a difference still in the positioning of the low!! This is for 9am Monday morning

     

    NAE

     

    Posted Image

    GFS

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

    Posted Image

     

     

    Posted Image
    Liked · 6 minutes ago

    Here is a recent image of the developing storm in the Atlantic. The line of cloud is following the jet stream but the part that is of most interest to us is inside the yellow circle. The line of cloud is now starting to develop due to fast tracking Jet Stream. To the south of that circle will start to pull towards right, whilst to the north of that circle will pull towards the left, eventually causing an anti-clockwise spiral like the system inside the red circle. It's how this system develops in the next 24-36 hours which will determine how bad things will get on Monday.

     

    Recent image of the developing Storm

    Courtesy of London and the South East Weather Facebook

    Edited by Jan_Bromley
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    heres what ukmo show

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    and the jet

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    now rainfall

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    looking at that

     

    the stronger winds are later than shown last night

     

    rush hour onwards a tad earlier for the far south west of the region

     

    looks like the low is slightly further north

     

    these winds still look very strong and the warnings are still justified

     

    will link these up with the fax charts soon

     

    how will the jet react to the storm here is the difficult call

     

    advise is still be prepared

     

     

    seperate note

     

    the far north east of the region could have bigger gusts as the storm clears

     

    sorry not great news

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi jenny

     

    as the low crosses in may tighten more when it shifts north east

     

    waiting fax charts for more info

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst, near Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst, near Bexleyheath, Kent

    Afternoon all,

     

    Just catching up with the posts - I see the storm is still on and there isn't a down grade in sight (which I must admit, I was expecting to see during the course of today)

     

    All I can say is stay safe and don't travel unless you have to!  I have to go to work on Monday morning, and I must say, I am not relishing the prospect, even though I am strangely excited at the same time!  Just wish I could be in the comfort of my front room watching it unfold!

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