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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

There's also a shed load of rain that we should consider:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Guest bjaykent

Guest bjaykent

Posted
Posted (edited)

Morning all, so slightly less intense and a little further south look the order of the day, from a personal point of view I am pleased to see it, but for those of you along the south coast still a worrying time, hope it adjusts even more during the day.

 

Some very silly posts among the various threads last night, I say well done Met Office, you do a very good job in very difficult circumstances,  often with little or no thanks. Posted Image

Edited by bjaykent
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Jason T Seasoned

Jason T

Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
Posted

Morning all, Calm before the storm then, Lovely sunny morning, glorious Autumn day. All change later though,Take care.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Wind gusting to 31.1 mph already here today and this thing isn't even close!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

MetO map for gusts still about the same, maybe a little more on the speeds for me:

 

post-6667-0-15231300-1382865126_thumb.jp

 

I can't see anything that says downgrade to me here in Sussex.

 

 

 

 

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Callie Enthusiast

Callie

Posted
  • Location: Nr Eastbourne
  • Location: Nr Eastbourne
Posted

Well I have now also removed the large wooden bench from the patio into the garage, thankfully I had a good clear out in the spring and can now easily fit it in :)

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

Morning all on this bright and breezy day, looking good for a walk later (forgot to change my alarm clock, but still got up later anyway )

 

The "storm" looks like it will barrel through quickly during the night and be clear of the east coast as the working day for most starts.

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Croydondazz Explorer

Croydondazz

Posted
  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot summers
  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon
Posted

Surrey

You say no downgrade ? But I thought the models were suggesting there was a downgrade

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Jason T Seasoned

Jason T

Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
Posted

Just issued.

 

http://metro.co.uk/2013/10/27/worst-storm-in-years-st-jude-gets-ready-to-unleash-a-trail-of-destruction-4162556/

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hernebaylooby Enthusiast

hernebaylooby

Posted
  • Location: herne bay,kent
  • Weather Preferences: lots of snow and cold crisp mornings! thunder storms!
  • Location: herne bay,kent
Posted

Im so confused! I think ill just prepare for the worst hope for the best and drink the bottle of baileys. ...

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

Coast, no downgrade what so ever..all it is, and very stupid I might add is it may take a slightly more southerly track.. Meaning people further north miss out.. But brings the threat of more rain over the south :'(

 

You say no downgrade ? But I thought the models were suggesting there was a downgrade

 

It depends where you are! I don't like the word downgrade really as the 'grade' it will be is the grade it was always going to be - it's our forecasts, guesses and perceptions that change with the information we have to hand at the time.

 

Where I am (Eastbourne) it certainly is still looks very potent with a risk of damage to structures and I guess that brings power outages etc. Add to that a lot of potential rain, I think the lead up to this by all agencies and models has been pretty fair. It may be that you guys out on the extremes of this region (further North for one) have been in an out of a zone that it could affect, but many in the South of the region have been and still look to be at the heart of a memorable weather event.

 

They are still talking about yesterdays amber which had:

 

 

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.
 
20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris. 
 
This warning will be updated Sunday morning.

 

 

Edited by Coast
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Im so confused! I think ill just prepare for the worst hope for the best and drink the bottle of baileys. ...

 

£9 in Morrisons for a litre currently!!!

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Croydondazz Explorer

Croydondazz

Posted
  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot summers
  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon
Posted

It depends where you are! I don't like the word downgrade really as the 'grade' it will be is the grade it was always going to be - it's our forecasts, guesses and perceptions that change with the information we have to hand at the time. Where I am (Eastbourne) it certainly is still looks very potent with a risk of damage to structures and I guess that brings power outages etc. Add to that a lot of potential rain, I think the lead up to this by all agencies and models has been pretty fair. It may be that you guys out on the extremes of this region (further North for one) have been in an out of a zone that it could affect, but many in the South of the region have been and still look to be at the heart of a memorable weather event. They are still talking about yesterdays amber which had:

Thanks coast
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lottiekent Experienced

lottiekent

Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
Posted

Morning SE'ies :)

Some very heavy rain here at about 3am (GMT) and then again at around 6:30..

We now have 12.9c the odd squally shower and F5 gusting to almost gale force already. Exciting/worrying 24 hours to come!

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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/If anyones up expect something stormy soonIts got really warm as well

 

Hi JP, The convergence of warm & cold air from midnight will add to the intensity of the storm

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hernebaylooby Enthusiast

hernebaylooby

Posted
  • Location: herne bay,kent
  • Weather Preferences: lots of snow and cold crisp mornings! thunder storms!
  • Location: herne bay,kent
Posted

£9 in Morrisons for a litre currently!!!

Oooh I may have to pop down there in a bit
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Guest bjaykent

Guest bjaykent

Posted
Posted

A potential slight reduction in wind speeds away from the south coast could prove a real headache for forecasters today. I'm sure yesterday many people were more of less decided that they would put travel plans on hold and maybe work from home but today some will be having second thoughts. 

 

I think if gusts for the more northern part of our region still get up to around 60mph or so, there will still be disruption, trees in full leaf are likely to come down anyway with lots of leaves as well on rail lines.

 

I sure the Met Office will give their thoughts later and I hope they will include some clear advice on what they think people should do tomorrow, hopefully if it moves through mainly before rush hour, there should be a clearer picture for those intending to travel or go to work. 

 

As for those on the south coast, nothing appears to have really change, the winds still look severe at present.Posted Image

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Tamara Maestro

Tamara

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
Posted (edited)

There is no certainty yet of course, but it is is beginning to look as though anyone, say, 25 miles or more inland but more especially away from this far SE corner might not have too much to worry about with this low.

 

The thing is, just a very small minor adjustment further south could mean that those of us on the SE coast who look like drawing the short straw for this wretched low, could miss the worst of the winds as well. In a way it rubs in that there has been a last minute adjustment on the more macro scale (ie not just the larger part of the region but the country as a whole) but it is hard not to mask IMBY feelings when it becomes the case that the one small area not to escape is your ownPosted ImagePosted Image

 

It maybe that the 90mph threat has gone down here which is certainly something to welcome - but 70 to 80mph is still too much and another 10mph or so off that would make quite a further difference in reducing problems and disruption. Afterall 50 to 65mph gusts are quite common on coasts and far from unusual and actually cause little or no problems in these parts

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Cat stuck his head out the door, had a sniff and is now behind the sofa. Sign of things to come or just being a feline?

The swear block ruined my pun :(

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lottiekent Experienced

lottiekent

Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
Posted

The shipping forecast was issued a short while ago - a link to the text version:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_printable.html

post-5283-0-14264400-1382869377_thumb.jp

post-5283-0-05874600-1382869389_thumb.jp

Please remember this is a forecast for areas out at sea, however, the coastal areas would expect to experience similar wind speeds as confirmed in the inshore waters forecast:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/inshore_forecast.html#All

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

Cat stuck his head out the door, had a sniff and is now behind the sofa. Sign of things to come or just being a feline?

The swear block ruined my pun Posted Image

pu55y?

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Even if it does take a slightly more Southerly track it seems the south coast and the whole of Kent will be getting a hammering.

pu55y?

Yes!
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