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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    They can't guarantee anything with absolute certainty - but they are pretty certain of a potentially very nasty storm for the southern half of England and Wales.

     

    As things stand, we're just one tick away from seeing a red warning - weather impact and likelihood are both high.

     

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    Still going to be windy with the chance of meatballs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Monkspath, Solihull, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Extreme Weather
  • Location: Monkspath, Solihull, West Midlands

    I think the reason some would want a downgrade because a lot of people may well not have buildings insurance .

     

    More fool them. One thing I think is essential when you own a house is contents and buildings insurance. Its pretty cheap compared to car insurance too! Mine is £130 for a year. We are lucky too in the UK as someone said we have brick built houses.

    Even in America...with monster hurricanes...they don't have proper brick built housing and they generally survive.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    The issue I have...is that despite modern technology we are still no clearer on the track. In the US they seem to be able to firm up on hurricanes quite well...but here it always seems to go wrong...be it snow or even rain.So essentially...going back to 87...we are in a no stronger position apart from the fact the media can hype. And yes I'd love to see a good storm...I don't want to see people hurt...but as an enthusiast this is a good as we get to a hurricane style system.

    You do realise the difference in a hurricane travelling east to west in its latter stages as it approaches the US compared to a low pressure system moving from west to east in the North Atlantic towards the UK don't you?No you don't.Well the difference is huge and hardly comparable and until you understand that your going to face huge frustration ever thinking the accuracy could be the same with current observations.
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    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    BBC news 24 still going for a storm

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Now is when we should start to see the pressure dropping off then from what I've been reading?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Now is when we should start to see the pressure dropping off then from what I've been reading?

     

    The models show only gradual a pressure drop until tomorrow afternoon when it should(?) start rapid deepening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Now is when we should start to see the pressure dropping off then from what I've been reading?

    looks like it is in line with UKMO right now, baring in mind 2 hours dif.

     

    currently

     

    Posted Image

     

    UKMO 12z at +12

     

    Posted Image

     

    and its riding the Jet

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    More fool them. One thing I think is essential when you own a house is contents and buildings insurance. Its pretty cheap compared to car insurance too! Mine is £130 for a year. We are lucky too in the UK as someone said we have brick built houses.

    Even in America...with monster hurricanes...they don't have proper brick built housing and they generally survive.

     

    Trees can still damage brick built housing. And cars. As can flying debris.

     

    I think most do have insurance... but insurance doesn't rid you of the hassle, does it? And there's usually an excess. It's hardly rocket science!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    But they haven't failed. They have accurately reflected the best model output. They have not put out a red warning precisely because of the chance of a 24hr-out backtrack. I simply don't understand these posts about egg on face/failed/poor performance/loss of credibility.

    We know it's not the met offices' fault ,but you ask jo ppublic in the street and you'll soon understand why I said that they will lose credibilityThe public have been watching the news, reading papers, going online etc.99% of what they are seeing and hearing is telling them that there shall be a major storm on monday.You can say whatyou like , but the public WILL blame the met office and the met office WILL loose ccredibility in the publics eyes if the storm fails to happennI'm not saying it will be their fault , it won't , ,I'm saying the public SHALL blame them whether it's their fault or not.They must be praying for it to happen poor sods :-(Just ask John Holmes, he knows what I'm getting at.
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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    We know it's not the met offices' fault ,but you ask jo ppublic in the street and you'll soon understand why I said that they will lose credibilityThe public have been watching the news, reading papers, going online etc.99% of what they are seeing and hearing is telling them that there shall be a major storm on monday.You can say whatyou like , but the public WILL blame the met office and the met office WILL loose ccredibility in the publics eyes if the storm fails to happennI'm not saying it will be their fault , it won't , ,I'm saying the public SHALL blame them whether it's their fault or not.They must be praying for it to happen poor sods :-(Just ask John Holmes, he knows what I'm getting at.

    Fair enough. But when people on HERE start saying they've failed, I am a tad disappointed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    The models haven't behaved badly, unless some malfunction can be diagnosed that has caused spurious output. They are all equally correct in that they all have slightly different attributes which yield slightly different outputs. Handling a the exact timing of a190-kt jet interacting with anomalous moisture and SSTs is prone to variations in interpretation. Lambasting one model over the other, or talking about the repercussions for the Met Office at this stage is pure rubbish. As always they have taken the information available to them and processed it to the best of their abilities. The fact that some people prefer to go to the Daily Express for their information is their problem.

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    Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

    We know it's not the met offices' fault ,but you ask jo ppublic in the street and you'll soon understand why I said that they will lose credibility

    The public have been watching the news, reading papers, going online etc.

    99% of what they are seeing and hearing is telling them that there shall be a major storm on monday.

    You can say whatyou like , but the public WILL blame the met office and the met office WILL loose ccredibility in the publics eyes if the storm fails to happenn

    I'm not saying it will be their fault , it won't , ,I'm saying the public SHALL blame them whether it's their fault or not.

    They must be praying for it to happen poor sods :-(

    Just ask John Holmes, he knows what I'm getting at.

     

    Well they are government controlled organisation, and in that regard not much goes right for them half the time does it lol, no wonder joe public get's suspicious Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Surely, some heads can roll in the media

     

    Seriously

     

    go to: yahoo.com

     

    headline is:

     

    "UK will take full force of Hurricane"

     

    and this may end up being a damp squib non-event

     

    Seriously !! - DId they not read the Met Office press release from earlier

     

    Their article also mentions:

    A storm which could reach hurricane strengths of 80mph or more will definitely hit Britain

     

    Definitely? Hmmmm

    Edited by stevofunnelcl
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    Fair enough. But when people on HERE start saying they've failed, I am a tad disappointed.

    I know , perhaps they didn't know what I was getting at?It's sad imo that they get slated so much. Anyone with even the slightest interest in weather will know how difficult a job it must be?When I told some friends about the possibility of there actually not being a storm (and I explained why) they still ALL said the same thing."They can't even forecast tomorrow let alone a week away" , absolutely every single one said that.If you don't think they aren't going to be blamed just because you understand what's happening, then you've got another thing coming.The Met aren't to blame, yet i'll copy and paste the newspaper headlines all blaming them in a few days if we don't get the storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodford Green, Essex, 73mtrs asl
  • Location: Woodford Green, Essex, 73mtrs asl

    The inpact weather matrix cannot go to red until we are in it! It mean "Take action", so if you want to run around screaming for 24hrs the box would be ticked.

     

    For one who now hates the wind due to '87 I am hoping for a downgrade. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

    not there fault our weather is so unpredictable

    Edited by JK1
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Heavy Snow, Windstorms, Thunderstorms & Hailstorms, Summer Heatwaves
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

    Surely, some heads can roll in the media

     

    Seriously

     

    go to: yahoo.com

     

    headline is:

     

    "UK will take full force of Hurricane"

     

    and this may end up being a damp squib non-event

     

    Seriously !! - DId they not read the Met Office press release from earlier

    Ah can beat that - "MEGASTORM (in capitals of course) to bring Devastating 100mph winds and 48 hours of utter hell. Could bring widespread destruction."

     

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/439035/MEGASTORM-Devastating-100mph-winds-to-bring-48-hours-of-utter-hell-THIS-weekend

     

    LOL

     

    Courtesy of the classic Express - the paper for people who know nothing about weather whatsoever.

    Edited by Chris D
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    The models haven't behaved badly, unless some malfunction can be diagnosed that has caused spurious output. They are all equally correct in that they all have slightly different attributes which yield slightly different outputs. Handling a the exact timing of a190-kt jet interacting with anomalous moisture and SSTs is prone to variations in interpretation. Lambasting one model over the other, or talking about the repercussions for the Met Office at this stage is pure rubbish. As always they have taken the information available to them and processed it to the best of their abilities. The fact that some people prefer to go to the Daily Express for their information is their problem.

    It doesn't work like that, try reading the backlash agaist the 1987 storm which they "took all the information available to them and processed it to the best of their abilities".
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Reading some of the posts on here one would think it's all being made up.

    Well, i only take note of the pros and the v best on NW - so my take reading IanF's posts and a few others is that it's going to be severe.

    The doubters are all guesswork merchants in my eyes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    Surely, some heads can roll in the media

     

    Seriously

     

    go to: yahoo.com

     

    headline is:

     

    "UK will take full force of Hurricane"

     

    and this may end up being a damp squib non-event

     

    Seriously !! - DId they not read the Met Office press release from earlier

     

    Their article also mentions:

    A storm which could reach hurricane strengths of 80mph or more will definitely hit Britain

     

    Definitely? Hmmmm

    BBC news 24 still going for it and the weather forecaster saying Met office are confident of storms on monday. This is what causes the problems

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    Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    It doesn't matter if the models or MetO or newspapers turn out to be wrong tomorrow. At least everyone was prepared for the worst this time. So what if a few egos are bruised and lessons are learned? Nobody died.

     

    Unless you lived through it you can't imagine the difficulties people went through after the '87 storm. They were completely unprepared and some 19 people were caught out in the storm and DID die mostly in RTAs with fallen trees.

     

    Whereas tonight, at least I've got the house cleaned and shipshape, the washing and ironing's all done and it doesn't matter if the storm happens or not.

    Edited by Iceni
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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    Christ I can imagine the conversation some of you are having to your loved ones having read the last few pages of this thread.......'Oh no darling...1 model run said we aren't going to get a cat 5 storm on our shores now....it'l miss by half the continent of Europe.....the 18z....notoriously named the 'pub run' told me so...and it's now my new book of gospel....anything this model produces is a 100% certainty to occur......the entire metoffice staff should be sacked if every square mile of the warned zones don't receive 100mph gales Monday Morning....' bla bla bla

     

    Come on, it took hundreds of model runs to get us here - how did we know they were right? We didn't, we took an average or a 'medium' from them all. Nothing in life is certain, never mind the bloody weather! Get a grip of yourselves, storm is still on and if it isn't?! There's always a next time. 

     

     

     

     

    PS - If this happens in winter, I'll be on the prozac. 

     

     

    Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodford Green, Essex, 73mtrs asl
  • Location: Woodford Green, Essex, 73mtrs asl

    It doesn't work like that, try reading the backlash agaist the 1987 storm which they "took all the information available to them and processed it to the best of their abilities".

     

    Quite. Yet my Hubby was working in Jersey during the '87 storm and they were all told to be back at their Hotel by 10pm due to a massive storm coming. I watched the last Weather forecast before the BBC went off air [yes really] and went to bed thinking it would be a bit windy and got woken up 3hrs later thinking the World was ending!!! Ho, hum.........................stuff happens.

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