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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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Is it not why it's called a pub run

 

Even so, it's a run with 6 hours of extra data on the 12z suite. This is important given the close time frame we're talking about. At 36-48 hours the difference in 'accuracy' between the 12z,18z,00z and 6z runs is negligible. We can't just go round dismissing runs.

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Why i was waiting for this storm to 'actually' develop, before i went into full blown storm prep mode

Now, i've got to cool my heels again... damn GFS

See what the morning brings (long night)

 

Trouble is, with the clocks going back one hour... it's one extra hour for more of the models to backtrack

Eh? 

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Even so, it's a run with 6 hours of extra data on the 12z suite. This is important given the close time frame we're talking about. At 36-48 hours the difference in 'accuracy' between the 12z,18z,00z and 6z runs is negligible. We can't just go round dismissing runs.

Im thinking the same its only just over 24hrs out, you cant thow this out with such litle time left. Im expecting the other models to follow now!

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You can say what you like. This output is still a big factor and I expect the UKMO and ECM to downgrade 'slightly' tomorrow.And BTW I'm gutted. Was hoping this was gonna be the real deal :( .

I do enjoy predictions about model predictions. Remember folks even if models say its a 100mph monster or a 20mph breeze it never means they are correct. The models are not the weather.
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Well we have winds currently gusting to 49mph. So I would be very surprised indeed if tomorrow and Monday is any less that that, I think the GFS has had to much too drink, it is the 'pub' run after all.

Looks like it will be hard to sleep tonight anyway with a Force 9 wind blowing.

 

Dropped off a bit here down the road in Bournemouth, as you say, don't much fancy another 20mph on top of this on Monday. Pub run in reverse from GFS?!

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I can't take any more of this - off to bed to hopefully wake up to some more consistency in the runs by morning. With all this change in the models it feels like mid-winter trying to forecast the position of a stalling front and who will see 20cm of snow. The beauty of weather forecasting I suppose!

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For storm junkies out there the NAVGEM 18hrs run at T36hrs still has the storm. So that's the GFS 18hrs against, the NAE sort of middle of the road and the Artist previously known as King of the Cannon Fodder going for a significant storm!

The NAVGEM is awful, a total horror show I sincerely hope it sticks to being utter tripe and doesn't suddenly find some reliability.

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partially correct; Met model was near enough spot on until the last 24 hours then had a hiccup with French and German models giving a better handle on it.

 

The important bit to note is that these type of storms can and do change track/and can also increase or decrease in intensity  at the last minute, just as the 18 z gfs alludes to.

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For storm junkies out there the NAVGEM 18hrs run at T36hrs still has the storm. So that's the GFS 18hrs against, the NAE sort of middle of the road and the Artist previously known as King of the Cannon Fodder going for a significant storm!

The NAVGEM is awful, a total horror show I sincerely hope it sticks to being utter tripe and doesn't suddenly find some reliability.

 

Ah the mighty NAVGEM. Does look quite potent though.

 

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Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 2m W COUNTRY #ukstorm UPDATE 23:15BST: Latest analysis from @metoffice offers similar story (& a 25% probability of less significant winds).

75% chance of a significant storm, 25% chance of a less significant storm.In the world of weather, where there is never 100% probabilities on anything, that's pretty strong odds on a significant storm still.
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75% chance of a significant storm, 25% chance of a less significant storm.In the world of weather, where there is never 100% probabilities on anything, that's pretty strong odds on a significant storm still.

 

Yes, I'd imagine the 25% risk was already there before the 06Z GFS run, otherwise the Likely tick on the warning matrix would already be at its highest point.

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