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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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Michael Fish was just interviewed on BBC news 24.

he says the storm won't be as bad as 1987 but is concerned about the strong winds and heavy rain.

Was nice to see Michael fish back on tv, he's a legend!

Edited by West Sussex Kate
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It makes me laugh people on social media talking about how it sounds like the storm has already started early this evening. They have no clue that it's just being born of the coast of America.

Social media needs banning, it is a perfect breeding ground for scaring the nieve and spreading complete unfactual lies.

Social media and the newspapers are always a nightmare when it comes to the weather. You only have to give the papers a hint at the slightest chance of bad weather and before you know it it's headline and front page news.

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To "A Boy Named Sue" and Captain Shortwave"

 

Looking at the MO seems to show "The Triangle" as the Northern limit of the strongest winds.  Also looks as though it will not really affect the East of the country until we're heading into rush hour.  Trees falling are my biggest concern, but hopefully it will not be as bad as forecast.

 

If we do escapes severe damage, I hope we don't get people on here declaring it a "Non-event".

 

In the meantime, my Generator is working, (checked it last week before this storm was dreamt up), fuel can is full, we can survive a powercut (in an all electric house), keep warm and cook (Yes, it's a fair size genny)

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The south hasn't had a big wind storm for such a long time, there are bound to be thousands of trees that are diseased and unstable, that with the fact they are still in leaf and the ground is soft and saturated, it's recipe for widespread power cuts.

 

Jill Attenborough, of the Woodland Trust, said 15 million UK trees fell in 1987 

!!!! Makes me more than a little concerned!! Even 1/10th of that number falling will cause chaos on Monday

Edited by Kiwi
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Well, looking at the LOW's track, it is likely that a W or NW strong wind will hit NW England on Monday Morning.Well, it's the first time I've come across one!

I just meant I don't think it is a sting jet. A sting jet would be FAR stronger than that. I think it's just normal wind from a low pressure system.

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Jill Attenborough, of the Woodland Trust, said 15 million UK trees fell in 1987 

!!!! Makes me more than a little concerned!! Even 1/10th of that number falling will cause chaos on Monday

Yeah, I remember seeing on the news that there were entire forests flattened by suspected 'micro bursts' or tornadoes.

 

The Burn's day storm was worst up here on the Midlands. I remember trying to sleep and just watching the window bowing in and feeling the house shaking, it was the most scared by the weather I've ever been and to this day I cannot sleep if it's windy.

 

Doesn't help to that I have a genuine Dendrophobia (fear of trees) I cannot bear to be under certain types of tree, I get so anxious if make me feel like I'm going to pass out :-( 

So this type of storm is a nightmare for me .

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In case anyone missed earlier, you can follow the progress of the low that will become Monday's storm on this link. The chart updates every hour. It's the 1005mb low in the Atlantic on there. Also useful if you'll looking to find it on the satellite loops.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102619&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

Here is a satellite loop of the North Atlantic. You can select zoom and click to get a closer look and you can toggle the lat/lon on and off.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

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Jill Attenborough, of the Woodland Trust, said 15 million UK trees fell in 1987 

!!!! Makes me more than a little concerned!! Even 1/10th of that number falling will cause chaos on Monday

The 1987 storm was earlier in the month with more green leaves.

They should be blowing off the trees more now,they have been here as today`s wind picked up. 

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The BBC states that the Met Office is predicting gusts in some areas could be similar in strength to storms in March 2008, January 2007, October 2000 and January 1990. No mention of 1987.

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I am looking forward to this as much as the next extreme weather enthusiast but what does scare me is the potential for tornadic activity. Im in a prime spot for one of these to spawn looking at the hellicity charts earlier. Does anyone have any more info on how likely these are and how powerful it would likely be? I see there are unconfirmed reports of tornados during 1987.

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For those with Netweather Extra subscription new NMM6 is just out and the English Channel winds look ferocious, Sunday night right through Monday morning

 

Updates to our watch/warning on the way too

I have that :)

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SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #037ISSUED: 1700UTC SATURDAY 26TH OCTOBER 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WALES, ENGLAND (EXCEPT NORTHERN)HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - NORTH WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC UNTIL 2000UTC MONDAY 28TH OCTOBER 2013

RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM BRINGING SEVERE GALES AND DAMAGING GUSTS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTHERN FLANK

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE SUFFICIENT FOR ADVANCED WARNING OF A LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER IN THE EARLY HOURS TRANSITING TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, IN WHICH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 970MB. THE INTENSE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE 40-50MPH MEAN WINDS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN UK, WITH GUSTS TO 70MPH INLAND WHILE STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLY ABOVE 90MPH MAY AFFECT COASTS AND HIGH GROUND OF SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, SOUTH WALES AND AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WINDS STRONGER THAN 70MPH MAY BE BROUGHT TO SURFACE INLAND OF THESE AREAS THROUGH ENGLAND WHERE LOWER LAYER INSTABILITY EXISTS, PARTICULARLY IN DAYLIGHT HOURS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY ACCUMULATE 40MM WITHIN AROUND 9HRS PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF NORTH WALES AND ACROSS NORTHERN ENGLAND, LEADING TO A RISK OF EXCESS SURFACE WATER AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED WITH FURTHER DETAIL. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Synopsis

 

Upper trough will migrate northeastwards across the British Isles throughout the forecast period, followed by a second, sharpening upper trough over the Atlantic - the culprit for the explosive development of low pressure 'Christian'. Cool mid-levels overspreading warm SSTs will promote another day of convection, particularly near windward coasts.

 

Discussion

 

... EAST ANGLIA, SE ENGLAND ...

Occlusion (quasi-cold front) will continue to clear eastwards out to the North Sea between 00z-04z, with further line segment elements along the front as a result of strong DLS near the rear edge (40-60kts). Given low LCLs and slight veering of surface winds, there is a low risk of a short-lived tornado.... SW ENGLAND, SW WALES ...
Main risk period is 00z-11z as a couple of shortwaves cross the area, associated with lines of deep convection. A few hundred J/kg and ELTs down to -40C suggests some lightning is possible with the strongest cells, and given 20-40kts DLS, increasing throughout the day as the upper jet approaches, such cells will be organised capable of producing some hail (locally up to 2.0cm in diameter), strong, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado given low LCLs.Showers will be replaced by frontal shield and rain as next low pressure system, 'Christian', approaches from the southwest with strong but largely non-convective-induced winds overnight. 
 
... W SCOTLAND ...Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the area for much of the forecast period, and with 20-30kts DLS forming bands at times and bringing the risk of local surface flooding. Strong LLS and low LCLs suggests the potential for short-lived waterspouts/tornadoes in any stronger, well-organised cells. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is also possible.Showers will affect many other areas through the day, and with strong low-level shear and helicity, some well-organised cells may exhibit some supercellular characteristics. 

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/292

Edited by Summer Sun
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I just meant I don't think it is a sting jet. A sting jet would be FAR stronger than that. I think it's just normal wind from a low pressure system.

Given how rapidly sting jets are supposed to develop, isn't it too soon to be saying whether one will do so or not?

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Yeah, I remember seeing on the news that there were entire forests flattened by suspected 'micro bursts' or tornadoes.The Burn's day storm was worst up here on the Midlands. I remember trying to sleep and just watching the window bowing in and feeling the house shaking, it was the most scared by the weather I've ever been and to this day I cannot sleep if it's windy.Doesn't help to that I have a genuine Dendrophobia (fear of trees) I cannot bear to be under certain types of tree, I get so anxious if make me feel like I'm going to pass out :-( So this type of storm is a nightmare for me .

Sorry to hear that ch.. That is not very nice at all. Best you get that iPod ready for Sun night Snd some lovely peaceful music. :)
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slightly worried - have a "full" skip out the back after clearing the house of junk all day

 

I'm thinking either lots of bungies over the top - or a tight tarpaulin

 

worried about debris taking out neighbours cars ....

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Sorry but I want this system to be as strong and severe as the very worst charts have predicted. Maybe it is just me but for the life of me I just cannot see the point of being a weather enthusiast / nerd without the promise of extreme weather potential. Isn't that that what most of us are in it for? I accept there are some posting who genuinely want it to pass without incident but what's the point of getting all excited then saying but I hope it's not as bad as that chart is showing...

 

Yes trees may get blown over, some cars destroyed and people even hurt or killed. Now it goes without saying that the less of that (obviously moreso the latter), the better but... it my eyes it is collateral damage. I say bring on the 90+mph gusts, bring on the sting jet, bring on the tornados, bring on the the worst storm since 1987!!! There, now I've said it.

I completely and utterly agree with every letter you typed s4lancia, well said!

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