Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Guest William Grimsley]

 

961mb at lowest over UK

That looks good for Cheshire!

[Gaz1985]

I suspect towards Monday the storm will be a lot more realistic in terms of strength and will probably turn out to be nothing more than strong winds and heavy rain. Always going to be the risk (a substantial risk) of flooding which will probably be more of a risk than damage from winds.

 

Indeed I fully agree. Just a very windy day but nothing extreme like 1987 or Burns day storm.

[BARRY]

I suspect towards Monday the storm will be a lot more realistic in terms of strength and will probably turn out to be nothing more than strong winds and heavy rain. Always going to be the risk (a substantial risk) of flooding which will probably be more of a risk than damage from winds.

And i suspect you could be wrong, it easy when we are sat here but lets wait until we get there before we jump to conclusions. 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from the BBC 1 news

 

 

South of the Humber 60 to 80mph gusts possibly higher in parts (those most exposed I would think) some heavy rain around as well

 

As for Scotland and Northern Ireland at this stage you can just sit back and relax with everything looking quiet here

Edited October 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[P-M]

The torrential rain on the northern flank of this low is concerning though - ground here is completely saturated...

[Kiwi]

I suspect towards Monday the storm will be a lot more realistic in terms of strength and will probably turn out to be nothing more than strong winds and heavy rain. Always going to be the risk (a substantial risk) of flooding which will probably be more of a risk than damage from winds.

 

Strong winds, heavy rain and the trees still in leaf. Falling trees could be very disruptive for road and rail.

[radiohead]

Indeed I fully agree. Just a very windy day but nothing extreme like 1987 or Burns day storm.

 

And yet the Burns Day storm is literally what the Met Office compared this to today.

 

Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said Britain faces a repeat of the 1990 killer Burns Night storm, one of the most destructive in history.

She warned winds could be strong enough to fell trees, close roads and bridges, and cause damage to buildings.

She said: “What we are looking at is a storm similar to the Burns Day storm which saw wind speeds of 92mph.

“This is not the sort of storm we would expect to see every autumn, we are looking at very strong winds and heavy rain.

“Along the south coast we are expecting gusts of 90mph, 70 to 80mph inland.â€

Edited October 25, 2013 by radiohead

[ChezWeather]

Latest from the BBC 1 news

 

 

South of the Humber 60 to 80mph gusts possibly higher in parts (those most exposed I would think) some heavy rain around as well

Cant make out where i am on that map, pretty sure im just on the bottom of the arrow though! 

[P-M]

Latest from the BBC 1 news

 

 

South of the Humber 60 to 80mph gusts possibly higher in parts (those most exposed I would think) some heavy rain around as well

 

 

But how many times have the north and Scotland been under these types of warnings?  Can someone explain what is different with this one (in laymans terms) very interesting but I have not seen as much coverage of a potential event for a long time.  

[TwisterGirl81]

I don't really think these types of situations are to be made light of, this is a serious situation especially for those of us in the south!!

[Summer Sun]

But how many times have the north and Scotland been under these types of warnings?  Can someone explain what is different with this one (in laymans terms) very interesting but I have not seen as much coverage of a potential event for a long time.  

 

Its because the likes of London are in danger from strong winds (highly populated areas) if this was heading for Scotland would we get as much coverage so early? I doubt it as storms are nothing new for this part of the UK, for the south they are quite unusual on this scale.

 

re to the rain you were talking about the met have heavy rain from 03:00 to 09:00 for us then it dies away

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400

[2810lollypop]

As this storm appears to be the remnants of Lorenzo, I claim naming rights on Monday's Storm Lauren

Yes ,i second that .Its my daughters 12th birthday on monday & her name is Lauren ! not so sure that a storm her birthday is gonna be what shes hoping for though ??

[P-M]

I don't really think these types of situations are to be made light of, this is a serious situation especially for those of us in the south!!

 

 

No one is making light of it TwisterGirl - people are just having some input that's all - if this turns out to be like the Burns Day storm then that is something serious but we need to wait and see.

[Dancerwithwings]

BBC News on Facebook have just issued this

 

 

 

Cool ! The way things are going they should change that colour from BLUE to RED

 They must of been reading my post lol they've changed it to RED !!!! it show where the worst areas to be hit, Its a line from mid wales over to the wash and south.

[P-M]

Its because the likes of London are in danger from strong winds (highly populated areas) if this was heading for Scotland would we get as much coverage so early? I doubt it as storms are nothing new for this part of the UK, for the south they are quite unusual on this scale.

 

re to the rain you were talking about the met have heavy rain from 03:00 to 09:00 for us then it dies away

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400

 

 

Cheers Gav - I get you now.  The Local Beeb news is on and they are mentioning the storm soon - the rain blobs look intense for Monday here and looks like flooding could be an issue - might not get much coverage though lol

[Summer Sun]

Cheers Gav - I get you now.  The Local Beeb news is on and they are mentioning the storm soon - the rain blobs look intense for Monday here and looks like flooding could be an issue - might not get much coverage though lol

 

I don't think the flooding (if we get it) would be too bad mostly temporary surface water flooding worst areas would be at bottom of hills ect

[P-M]

I don't think the flooding (if we get it) would be too bad mostly temporary surface water flooding worst areas would be at bottom of hills ect

 

 

Trust me - it rained the other day and the drains were backfilling - surface flooding can be a massive problem around here - in the torrential downpours of 2012 the road system was paralysed a few times albeit locally but I am not at the foot of any hills - I am on the coast and therefore I am concerned because I have to get about for work! 

 

I know it doesn't warrant any big warnings as such but maybe one to watch out for. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by P-M

[Jo Farrow]

Can anyone give an update on the rain intensity and likely or projected areas this may affect?  Reason being is that the ground is saturated here and a bit concerned about the rainfall in such a short space of time.

 

Hope there's not too much destruction  in the south IF this hits as expected but would like to be down there all the same!  

Netweather website should have something on it tomorrow (Sat ) about rainfall amounts

[Polar Maritime]

I don't think the flooding (if we get it) would be too bad mostly temporary surface water flooding worst areas would be at bottom of hills ect

 

Yes Gav, water will always find the lowest point... The rivers round here are already bursting there banks and the storm's not even arrived yet !

Edited October 25, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Skullzrulerz]

Starting to get worried about this storm.

[Summer Sun]

Yes Gav, water will always find the lowest point... The rivers round here are already bursting there banks and it's not even arrived yet !

 

Rivers here are coping quite well tbh yes its high but it has been a lot higher (especially the end of last year)

[P-M]

Yes Gav, water will always find the lowest point... The rivers round here are already bursting there banks and the storm's not even arrived yet !

 

 

And when it pours the water collects in gardens that slope which can run in to houses too - lost count over the past few years where I have seen news reports of  houses flooded out because of poor drainage or sloping streets etc etc it is worse in the hills but surface flooding can be an issue in urban areas too.

[Polar Maritime]

Rivers here are coping quite well tbh yes its high but it has been a lot higher (especially the end of last year)

 

It's looks like Darlington will escape it anyway, so you have no need to worry. Here the ground is sodden..

[Summer Sun]

Starting to get worried about this storm.

 

Looking at GFS high res

 

You get gusts topping the high 60's mph till early Monday morning then from 09:00 they ease

 

At this stage the worst is out in the channel sparing the UK the worst though the Kent coast may be the one exception for mainland England

 

 

I wouldn't like to be crossing to France on the ferry on Monday

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Jo Farrow]

I asked on Twitter Met Office about the Warnings 

• [*]

 Is there an agreed lead time on issuing a Red warning, so outside of that time it wouldn't be issued, it would be amber or Watch?

 

 

[*]

answer from MO

@jofwx The difference between amber and red is in confidence of impacts we’re likely to see. We issue with as much lead time as possible ^AS