Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Coast]

Latest output of GFS charts on Lightning Wizard take us up to Sunday Midnight and the specific ones of note for wind shear etc are:

 

 

 

 

 

[Zenarcher]

As you folks are far more experienced with these things than I am, how unusual would you say it is for the Met to issue an Amber warning this far out, and one which is fairly strongly worded too? 

 

I don't usually see them issue a warning about 4 days before the event, its usually 2 or at least 3 days. Of course the warning can change closer to the time its always updated based on the latest forecasts. Its giving the public plenty of time to prepare which is a good thing and if the storm isn't as bad as thought when the day arrives at least they done the right thing and gave a early warning.

[Chris K]

As you folks are far more experienced with these things than I am, how unusual would you say it is for the Met to issue an Amber warning this far out, and one which is fairly strongly worded too?

To be honest it is not that unusual in my opinion. The forecast is uncertain on the track of the low pressure system, so even if it does end up with the worst in France, as long as there is still that potential for it to track a bit further North and affect more of the UK, the warnings will be issued. The amber warnings are to be prepared and mean just that. Doesn't mean it is a certainity, but it's good they have released these today just in case.Closer to the time when the intensity and track gradually becomes clearer, these will be updated to reflect changes - because it's very likely there will be considering it is still 3-4 days away. Edited October 24, 2013 by Chris K

[festivalking]

Whatever the outcome of this, they'll be some strong winds either way, so i'll be taking a trip down to the coast with my trusty Kestrel anemometer. I don't know if i'll  be bothered to go to Portland or not, as that's always a good place, so i may stick local and just go for a mountain bike ride down to the coast instead. 

 

Get out to St Aldhelms head and if you dare scramble round to the front of the coastwatch station!

[egret]

Yes it is quite unusual for an amber warning so far out which makes me think Meto feel there is a real probability of disruptive wind. If you look at the GEFS sea level pressure and windspeed charts there is a trough developing  on the bottom edge of the main depression with a pronounced hook - a sting for the South Coast. Peak windspeed prediction at present looks like a gust of 56mph but I suspect that could change if this little fella continues to grow in stature. Look at how it develops from 00:00 Monday onwards 

 

The other aspect is timing - such preparations as can be made before the event are best organised today and implemented tomorrow before most people head off for the weekend. So I would say 'well done Meto' irrespective of what finally transpires. 

 

The good news is that tides will be neaps so flood risk lower than with springs.

Edited October 24, 2013 by egret

[Mapantz]

Get out to St Aldhelms head and if you dare scramble round to the front of the coastwatch station!

 

  It's funny you should mention that, i was just looking on the map at the best coastal outcrops (depending on the final wind direction) St Aldhelms is perfect but i'd rather bike it, so i was looking at St Albans head in Worth Matravers, i could ride there in 45 mins. I might even take my spinning rod but after what happened at Dancing Ledge last week, it's probably not a good idea. :lol:

[Methuselah]

Who'd have thunk it, eh? Strong winds in late October?

[Summer Sun]

They've probably only issued this amber warning so early because London and the SE is affected (highly populated areas)

 

Storm warning for south of England

 

The Met Office has warned that a storm forecast for Monday could cause disruption in the south of England. An amber alert for wind has been issued and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding. The Met Office said the public in the affected area "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage. Colin Seddon from the BBC Weather Centre said it "is certainly the worst storm we've seen this year". He said there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

[Insert Name Here]

Hmm . . . glad this one is going south (for now at least) 

 

It seems the potential for a timely met office warning is directly proportional to the uk latitude.

[festivalking]

  It's funny you should mention that, i was just looking on the map at the best coastal outcrops (depending on the final wind direction) St Aldhelms is perfect but i'd rather bike it, so i was looking at St Albans head in Worth Matravers, i could ride there in 45 mins. I might even take my spinning rod but after what happened at Dancing Ledge last week, it's probably not a good idea.

 

Same place isn't it. I should know I grew up in Worth  WInspit or seacombe other good spots certainly for wave spotting. Enjoy!!!

[Phantom2]

Who'd have thunk it, eh? Strong winds in late October?

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit ..however you are right ..I don't think the models are showing a repeat of 1987 but nevertheless it's going to be interesting ..don't think we can firm up on the track until Saturday ..yes I'll be watching closely

[festivalking]

They've probably only issued this amber warning so early because London and the SE is affected (highly populated areas)

 

Storm warning for south of England

 

The Met Office has warned that a storm forecast for Monday could cause disruption in the south of England. An amber alert for wind has been issued and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding. The Met Office said the public in the affected area "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage. Colin Seddon from the BBC Weather Centre said it "is certainly the worst storm we've seen this year". He said there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

 

 

I'm sure all our friends in the outer hebridies and northern isles are wondering what the fuss is all about.

[Mapantz]

Same place isn't it. I should know I grew up in Worth  WInspit or seacombe other good spots certainly for wave spotting. Enjoy!!!

 

I thought St Aldhelms was in Portland? 

[Tamara]

GEFS 06z suite, overall, has slightly downgraded the strengh and potency of the low and it seems that the t96 point is where the highest resolution changes are occuring, with the wave feature that crosses the atlantic less developed by many of the members up to this time.

 

Some go on to rapidly intensify the low as it crosses the UK in the few hours after t96, but the trend with this suite overall is to delay the deepening and make it rather less intense than some of the other modelling has suggested. Its only one batch of output, and obviously not to be relied on too much at this stage, but it does suggest that there is time for quite a lot of change with this yet - and that the METO warnings sensibly are provided to cater for the potentially more severe scenarios that exist.

 

The fact that the GEM has dropped the storm evolution could yet be the right one and it would be no surprise to see the other models follow this later. Could this process start happening here with the GFS? On the other hand of course the 12z suite could resume the more intense theme. Time will tell.

[Coast]

Here's the latest position for Tropical Depression Lorenzo. It's not Lorenzo that's on it's way that's the concern, but suggestions are that this ex Tropical Storm can add some of the warm and moist 'fuel' to the current jet stream, that might fire up Sunday night into Monday Morning potentially being a little hazardous.

 

 

Tropical Depression LORENZO: Probability of tropical storm winds to 33 hours lead

 

Jet stream forecast for Sunday afternoon:

 

Edited October 24, 2013 by Coast

[VillagePlank]

I'm sure all our friends in the outer hebridies and northern isles are wondering what the fuss is all about.

 

I reckon our friends up there would be more concerned with your spelling of where they live

 

Really, 20 million people live in the area expected to be disrupted, I reckon that's worth making a fuss about.

[festivalking]

I thought St Aldhelms was in Portland? 

 

There might be one there never really ventured down to portland but the headland beyond worth is known as either aldhelms or albans. Back in 87 the quarryman up the quarry out there said that the wind was so strong small rocks from the old quarry underneath the headland were being forced up over the cliff and were raining down on the fields. Mad mad and mad!

[Insert Name Here]

I reckon our friends up there would be more concerned with your spelling of where they live

 

Really, 20 million people live in the area expected to be disrupted, I reckon that's worth making a fuss about.

 

 

 

When storms like this go over my house and threaten to rip the roof off I feel exactly the same as any one of those 20 million people might. 

[Skullzrulerz]

What is the wind speed for cornwall?

[pip22]

Here's the latest position for Tropical Depression Lorenzo. It's not Lorenzo that's on it's way that's the concern, but suggestions are that this ex Tropical Storm can add some of the warm and moist 'fuel' to the current jet stream, that might fire up Sunday night into Monday Morning potentially being a little hazardous.

 

 

Tropical Depression LORENZO: Probability of tropical storm winds to 33 hours lead

 

Jet stream forecast for Sunday afternoon:

 

I don't think Lorenzo will strenghen the storm, because it is too weak and currently it is only gusting up to 45mph at best right now. It is also traveling at a slow speed of 5mph. It is dying to death too.

[ZONE 51]

Interesting but much of a concern. Very rare set-up and rare for this to evolve over South UK.

[Average Joe]

Thanks for the replies folks....it seems unusual from my experiences of keeping tabs on severe weather events such as snowfalls etc, so thought I'd ask the question. There's also that lingering nagging doubt that for once rags like the Express could be right, which needless to say I hope isn't the case! Thanks again!

[Bobby]

ECM chart from the Icelandic Met, shows the low getting down to sub 972mb with lots of heavy rain across the southern half of the country.

 

[Tamara]

ECM chart from the Icelandic Met, shows the low getting down to sub 972mb with lots of heavy rain across the southern half of the country.

 

The ECM operational and some of the EPS ensemble members have the storm more intense than almost all the latest GEFS suite

[VillagePlank]

When storms like this go over my house and threaten to rip the roof off I feel exactly the same as any one of those 20 million people might. 

 

Which is multiple times a year, no doubt. This storm looks like a one in thirty(ish) year event for the SE. Of course, it might not happen at all. I wouldn't sneer at tribes in the Sahara who might be expecting 12 inches of rain in a night because it rains that much, and more, further south in the tropics ....

Thanks for the replies folks....it seems unusual from my experiences of keeping tabs on severe weather events such as snowfalls etc, so thought I'd ask the question. There's also that lingering nagging doubt that for once rags like the Express could be right, which needless to say I hope isn't the case! Thanks again!

 

They do it so many times they are bound to right once in a while

Edited October 24, 2013 by Sparkicle