Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


Coast

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

Crewecold: 

"I have to say, on balance, I favour the GFS outcome on this one. Since this morning the GFS has been downgrading this storm in terms of severity and I wouldn't bet against it in this situation.

 

Just my view on proceedings. Obviously though, I'm not a trained meteorologist."

 

 

ooh, you should know better than to bet against the UKMO/ECM.

 

FWIW I think you're right (hunch)

Edited by Skyraker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

In terms of changes to the track and intensity, the 06Z "downgraded", the 12Z "upgraded" and now the 18Z "downgraded". I don't think there is anything special about this latest run of the GFS which makes it the definitive version of what will happen on Monday, it's just as likely to be as wrong in the morning when the 0Z comes out, as the previous runs were. It's also a bit at odds with the EC/UKMO/FAX.

 

I think we'll continue to see changes up until Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning.

Edited by radiohead
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I'll just add that in situation it's not really suitable to be saying 'deeper storm= further north' as it's a secondary low pressure feature part of the main LP which pushes into the UK. It's a lot more complicated than that as energy could simply be absorbed into the parent low. So many possibilities but I think a wave feature is the most likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

NAVGEM says no yet again

Posted Image

Previous run

Posted Image

There are so many possible outcomes here

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

ooh, you should know better than to bet against the UKMO/ECM.

 

FWIW I think you're right. (hunch)

 

Haha well I certainly can't see any NWP pushing the low as far N as the latest FAX chart has it so I think I'll choose to disregard it for now....with all due respect though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

TBF looking at the warnings and all the info, on the balance of proability, I would say that VERY damaging winds probably wont get VERY far North but you never now but I tell you what, even on the GFS they aint a million miles away from London.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Certainly some charts bare an uncanny resemblance to Oct 87.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

NAVGEM says no yet again

Posted Image

Previous run

Posted Image

There are so many possible outcomes here

 

Shows what I was saying above about a more northerly course doesn't necessarily= deeper. Could just be absorbed into parent low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Haha well I certainly can't see any NWP pushing the low as far N as the latest FAX chart has it so I think I'll choose to disregard it for now....with all due respect though!

 

Looks as far north on the Fax as it does on the UKMO to me?

 

Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Looks as far north on the Fax as it does on the UKMO to me?

 

Posted Image

 

 

Pity we haven't got a wind speed on that available to us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Pity we haven't got a wind speed on that available to us.

thought that was what the isobars told us?

Edited by Jax
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

peturbation 7 is absolutely hideous

Posted Image

Lot of nasty storms in this pack of ensemble cards

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Looks as far north on the Fax as it does on the UKMO to me?

 

Posted Image

 

That's the furthest N any of the models take the depression. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the models show tomorrow. I think far S counties of England are at highest risk of the strongest of the winds should it materialise.

peturbation 7 is absolutely hideous

Posted Image

Lot of nasty storms in this pack of ensemble cards

 

I think heavy/torrential rain could be a major issue aswell should the storm form, regardless of wind strength.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

thought that was what the isobars told us?

 

It is roughly but I am no expert at working it out - just nice to actually see a chart with it on, good point it is central pressure and gradient that are the key factors though.

 

What you can certainly deduce from the charts is that it wouldn't be too pleasant out and about!!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS downgrading quite a bit this morning. If the models continue Armageddon will be off the menu.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

GFS for Monday morning. 

post-15543-0-34059100-1382680523_thumb.p

GEM for Monday morning.

post-15543-0-09992200-1382680549_thumb.p

UKMO.

post-15543-0-55089100-1382680564_thumb.g

GEFS.

post-15543-0-91799300-1382680573_thumb.p

 

Take yer pick, though its likely none of these are right ;) 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Oh my

 

Posted Image

 

Explosive cyclogenesis occurs much earlier on this run. I imagine the low will end up being around 960mb. Isobars are extremely tight as well. 

 

GFS not quite as enthusiastic in its development this morning:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0

 

Still a nasty little storm even on this run though. I think that this storm definitely warrants an early amber warning, the fact that it looks to be from the remnants of ex-Tropical Storm Lorenzo means it should carry more convective potential and therefore, the likelihood of severe gusts coming down to the surface is higher than normal. 

 

Edited by sn0wman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Oh my

Posted Image

that is quite the something.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Fax.

post-11059-0-30335700-1382681826_thumb.g

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Without looking at the charts this morning, watching the BBC weather this morning, they seem to be going with the 'worst case scenario' track still.

 

Morning all!

 

Another tense day of speculation, guessing and pondering and for us on the very South coast still a distinct possibility of something significant, even though this is wandering around a bit and varying in perceived intensity depending which model you choose.

 

I'll just take my cue first thing from the MetO 5 day which has bumped things up a bit if anything for my part of the World and gives me a little greater concern this morning, despite other models wavering:

 

post-6667-0-56606600-1382681727_thumb.jp

 

70 mph widely along the South coast and even 72 mph in places just inland (near my work, where I am supposed to be heading at 6.15 am Monday!)

 

Prospects are not abating for me just yet Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Considering the GFS has a habit of overcooking Lows , you do have to wonder if it's onto something and that this is going to end up a Non event. 

 

As many have said previously to this, it's got everything to do with timing, if this system develops rapidly out to our West and slams straight into the UK at full pelt then we'll get battered. 

 

If,  on the other hand it's still building strength as it passes over then we may escape with the usual Gale - Severe Gale 

 

It might very well get swallowed by the larger Low to it's north, or it might completely miss us and head into France. 

 

I think a lot depends on exactly when this thing joins the Jet stream, how it interacts with it....as with a lot of things in life, it's all about timing !

 

I think (for what it's worth), that the GFS is onto something and by Sunday it will be apparent that it will have been something that only EVER (as a major event) existed inside a computer model, some of us will (for a time) get some beefy winds and a lot of rain, but that's all. 

 

Just a typical Autumn ''storm'' ...we'll see

Edited by EML Network
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Morning all!

 

Another tense day of speculation, guessing and pondering and for us on the very South coast still a distinct possibility of something significant, even though this is wandering around a bit and varying in perceived intensity depending which model you choose.

 

I'll just take my cue first thing from the MetO 5 day which has bumped things up a bit if anything for my part of the World and gives me a little greater concern this morning, despite other models wavering:

 

Posted ImageMetO 5 day.jpg

 

70 mph widely along the South coast and even 72 mph in places just inland (near my work, where I am supposed to be heading at 6.15 am Monday!)

 

Prospects are not abating for me just yet Posted Image

I have lost count the number of times last Autumn those ''Maximum Gust'' figures on the Met Office chart went into the 70's for us along the South Coast, even the day before an ''event'', I can't recall a single day last autumn where we came anywhere near getting those kind of wind speeds. 

 

So I take those charts with a big pinch of salt these days, that being said it does seem about right given the chart output. 72 MPH gusts are nothing to get too excited about either tbh. 

 

I think every year without fail somewhere in the UK coastal region will see wind speeds topping that. 

 

As I said in a post above, I don't see this as anything spectacular the GFS over cooked this low several days ago, getting everyone excited and now with maximum gusts of just 72 MPH predicted, it's just another windy day in my opinion. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Considering the GFS has a habit of overcooking Lows , you do have to wonder if it's onto something and that this is going to end up a Non event. As many have said previously to this, it's got everything to do with timing, if this system develops rapidly out to our West and slams straight into the UK at full pelt then we'll get battered. If, on the other hand it's still building strength as it passes over then we may escape with the usual Gale - Severe Gale It might very well get swallowed by the larger Low to it's north, or it might completely miss us and head into France. I think a lot depends on exactly when this thing joins the Jet stream, how it interacts with it....as with a lot of things in life, it's all about timing !I think (for what it's worth), that the GFS is onto something and by Sunday it will be apparent that it will have been something that only EVER (as a major event) existed inside a computer model, some of us will (for a time) get some beefy winds and a lot of rain, but that's all. Just a typical Autumn ''storm'' ...we'll see

I see what you mean here and usually I would agree, however other models are pointing towards servere weather for Sunday night and Monday which usually doesn't happen when the GFS over does things. Personally I believe that it's going to be a lot like it is when it snows and we have to find out with personal observations from members in the regional thread.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Interesting day of model watching. And listening to the man on the inside fergie going to be a rollercoster of emotions and hype.... This is not a dead duck yet nor is it a dead parrot

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...