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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Looks to be a more northerly track there too.

 

The deeper the low, the more to its left it goes. It might end up over Scotland at this rate.

 

I suppose the MetO computer is frantically calculating the depth of the depression to get a better track forecast.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

comparing the Fax charts for 12z Monday

Last evening had it >976mb about 51n 00e, the T+96 this evening for the same time has it at 57n02e and <964mb. So the latest Fax track over the UK is Shannon-Isle of Man area Scottish border area on east coast, which is considerably further north and deeper than previous Fax charts have suggested.

 

Thanks for that JH, so it seems my assumption was out and CC is correct as in suggesting it could end up further North. Posted Image Basically at this range, its almost a pointless debate when defining its track.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

18Z GFS shows a weaker low, 980mb.

Indeed it does. However I don't really trust the 06Z and 18Z runs as much as the others. I'm also taking far more notice of the Met Office fax updates from now, compared to other info.Not that I think a storm is set in stone for us by any means - I still think 50/50. Edited by Steve C
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

18Z GFS shows a weaker low, 980mb.

 

Yes, only looks a bit breezy for my location, need to start correcting Northwards for me to be getting in on the action, at least if it did get that far North then it would pack a punch and I would be having a walk on saddleworth moor on Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

perhaps worth posting this from the senior man at Exeter, sometime this afternoon I think?

Chief Forecaster's AssessmentA strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it. 
Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Yes, only looks a bit breezy for my location, need to start correcting Northwards for me to be getting in on the action, at least if it did get that far North then it would pack a punch and I would be having a walk on saddleworth moor on Monday.

 yeah if your taking gfs at face value  however after seeing the northerly correction from the fax charts  this POTENTIAL storm could very well end up near your location.

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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

Yes, only looks a bit breezy for my location, need to start correcting Northwards for me to be getting in on the action, at least if it did get that far North then it would pack a punch and I would be having a walk on saddleworth moor on Monday.

 

 

That 18z just doesn't look right, I don't know why yet.. it just doesn't.

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Indeed it does. However I don't really trust the 06Z and 18Z runs as much as the others. I'm also taking far more notice of the Met Office fax updates from now, compared to other info.Not that I think a storm is set in stone for us by any means - I still think 50/50.

computers do not know everthing so they!

 

agree that one run is not the end of this and the MO still hold this outcome.

 

Would rather be prepared and right than jovial about it and wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

That 18z just doesn't look right, I don't know why yet.. it just doesn't.

 

possibly not the favourite but if you see Ian Fergusson's post in the model thread it has some support.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

possibly not the favourite but if you see Ian Fergusson's post in the model thread it has some support.

The ens will be interesting, half the 12z suite said no to the low developing at all. Will more drop it or develop it, who knows and it's something occurring at 72 hours out. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The ens will be interesting, half the 12z suite said no to the low developing at all. Will more drop it or develop it, who knows and it's something occurring at 72 hours out. Posted Image

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't form to be half as severe as we've seen it on some model runs. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if, when the time comes, it's just a wave bringing some heavy rainfall to S UK and moderate winds to the S coast/N coast of France. IMO GFS handles these situations very well in the main. Zonality and any form of W'ly driven Atlantic regime is its forte.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

possibly not the favourite but if you see Ian Fergusson's post in the model thread it has some support.

 

Yeah, I just read that. Tomorrow mornings output will make an interesting read, however I really think this could end up a nowcast (severity) come Sun/Mon (if it happens at all)... so many variables.

Edited by Skyraker
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

The ens will be interesting, half the 12z suite said no to the low developing at all. Will more drop it or develop it, who knows and it's something occurring at 72 hours out. Posted Image

think this is a "now" watch event rather than a model one.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The ens will be interesting, half the 12z suite said no to the low developing at all. Will more drop it or develop it, who knows and it's something occurring at 72 hours out. Posted Image

 

I agree with John to be fair, the Met office do have far more data than us and also expert knowledge but of course it would be unwise to discount any op or ensembles at this range.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I agree with John to be fair, the Met office do have far more data than us and also expert knowledge of expert knowledge but of course it would be unwise to discount any op or ensembles at this range.

 

that will be precisely how they see this at Exeter, leaning to their own various model outputs but taking everything their data assimilation gets hold of. Quite how one assimilates the enormous amount of stuff that is now available is beyond my ability to comprehend, maybe 25 years ago it would have been easy enough for me when doing operational forecasting but not now.

 

nite nite boys and girls, time for old uns like me to go to bed. A very interesting 24-36 hours weather or rather model watching coming up. By 12 Saturday we should be able to 'see' it, sat piccs over the top of it and the first depths and position from UK Met Fax chart.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I agree with John to be fair, the Met office do have far more data than us and also expert knowledge of expert knowledge but of course it would be unwise to discount any op or ensembles at this range.

 

I have to say, on balance, I favour the GFS outcome on this one. Since this morning the GFS has been downgrading this storm in terms of severity and I wouldn't bet against it in this situation.

 

Just my view on proceedings. Obviously though, I'm not a trained meteorologist.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I have to say, on balance, I favour the GFS outcome on this one. Since this morning the GFS has been downgrading this storm in terms of severity and I wouldn't bet against it in this situation.

 

Just my view on proceedings. Obviously though, I'm not a trained meteorologist.

 

Im really not sure based on my own experience of viewing models so in that case the casting vote goes to the fax chart.

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