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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Sorry for those down south, but im currently having 3k in roof repairs being done here and the last thing I need is the entire thing blowing off halfway to being re-tiled, anything over 50mph in the peaks and i'll be up there nailing things down myself all day tomorrow.

My bro lives in Hayling Isle, and im sure the last thing he needs after dodging a tornado is 100mph winds crashing across the island, I feel for those who aren't used to these kinds of events as it's pretty damn scary being in the middle of a sting-jet as experience shows, in my lifetime in the peak's we've had two sting-jets from memory and those were bad enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Sorry for those down south, but im currently having 3k in roof repairs being done here and the last thing I need is the entire thing blowing off halfway to being re-tiled, anything over 50mph in the peaks and i'll be up there nailing things down myself all day tomorrow.

My bro lives in Hayling Isle, and im sure the last thing he needs after dodging a tornado is 100mph winds crashing across the island, I feel for those who aren't used to these kinds of events as it's pretty damn scary being in the middle of a sting-jet as experience shows, in my lifetime in the peak's we've had two sting-jets from memory and those were bad enough.

 

about 60% of the GEFS ensembles are now suggestive of a swathe of severe NWly gales across S N England and the Midlands on the western flank of the low.

 

I know just how bad winds can be round here when they funnel down the Cheshire gap. Even a moderate breeze can feel strong if the orientation is right.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Posted Image

Hmmm. You've posted a chart of predicted wind speed at the 850hpa level. The wind situation is worrying enough, without posting charts with no explanation for newcomers. It could panic people. Posted Image Edited by Steve C
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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Dang, I had a hunch with GFS moving things further north during the past 24hr that it'd get a little gusty here but looking at the MetO warnings via the mobile earlier it seems anything from 60-70mph is likely? looks like i'll be busy tomorrow, picked a heck of a time to re-tile the roof lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Dang, I had a hunch with GFS moving things further north during the past 24hr that it'd get a little gusty here but looking at the MetO warnings via the mobile earlier it seems anything from 60-70mph is likely? looks like i'll be busy tomorrow, picked a heck of a time to re-tile the roof lol.

 

I don't think you have anything to worry about atm as none of the operational output suggests that outcome. However, the Metoffice graphics on the BBC show a *very* tight squeeze in the isobars across Cheshire/N Midlands as the low clears. Who knows.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Well how are the msoutherners feeling to have a Iceland/N scotland low, hitting them ??????SCARED ?>??????? You all should be used to that weather anyway.

Not really as weather in the north can be completely different than in the south of the uk....you don't live here so you don't know
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Hmmm. You've posted a chart of predicted wind speed at the 850hpa level. The wind situation is worrying enough, without posting charts with no explanation for newcomers. It could panic people. Posted Image

 

I did post a reply after that saying those winds were at 5,000 ft (but could reach the surface in gusts in certain circumstances).

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/?p=2815391

 

I'll edit my post to add that just in case.

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Posted
  • Location: hastings riviera 4 last 10 years .born & bred in croydon
  • Weather Preferences: proper seasons ! hot sunny summers & cold snowy winters
  • Location: hastings riviera 4 last 10 years .born & bred in croydon

Dang, I had a hunch with GFS moving things further north during the past 24hr that it'd get a little gusty here but looking at the MetO warnings via the mobile earlier it seems anything from 60-70mph is likely? looks like i'll be busy tomorrow, picked a heck of a time to re-tile the roof lol.

go easy tomorrow on your roof , will be a bit gusty up there ! good luck with it all ,i hope you manage to make it more secure tomorrow.as long as everyone stays safe thats the main concern & to those who are thinking of going camping or walking on seafronts ,you are truly insane in my book !

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Posted
  • Location: Warlingham (J6 M25) 175m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Still/Hot or extremes. Fog/Damp etc boring...
  • Location: Warlingham (J6 M25) 175m ASL

Anyone else quite terrified for the possible worse outcome here... It could really really be quite nasty. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Sorry for those down south, but im currently having 3k in roof repairs being done here and the last thing I need is the entire thing blowing off halfway to being re-tiled, anything over 50mph in the peaks and i'll be up there nailing things down myself all day tomorrow.

My bro lives in Hayling Isle, and im sure the last thing he needs after dodging a tornado is 100mph winds crashing across the island, I feel for those who aren't used to these kinds of events as it's pretty damn scary being in the middle of a sting-jet as experience shows, in my lifetime in the peak's we've had two sting-jets from memory and those were bad enough.

 

well i do property maintenance, including roofing. (amongst most other things)  i'll do you a netweather discount! Posted Image

Edited by bobbydog
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Anyone else quite terrified for the possible worse outcome here... It could really really be quite nasty. Posted Image

 

Nahhh I'd be well excited if I lived down south. I've seen some really nasty storms with winds in the 70-90mph range.....quite exhilarating really! Just keep yourself away from flying debris!

 

I remember the Christmas eve storm of 1997 (despite only being 9 at the time) really well. Knocked a lot of the power out around here. Trees down all over the place.

 

I also remember the 27th October 2002. Severe gales of 80mph ripped down through the Cheshire gap. I remember a corrugated iron roof being ripped off a garden shed and blown across my Nan's yard!

 

Then again, I'd LOVE to witness a hurricane.....and a tornado. I always say that if I got killed storm chasing at least I'd die doing something I love.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Nahhh I'd be well excited if I lived down south. I've seen some really nasty storms with winds in the 70-90mph range.....quite exhilarating really! Just keep yourself away from flying debris!

 

I remember the Christmas eve storm of 1997 (despite only being 9 at the time) really well. Knocked a lot of the power out around here. Trees down all over the place.

 

Then again, I'd LOVE to witness a hurricane.....and a tornado. I always say that if I got killed storm chasing at least I'd die doing something I love.

 

The Christmas Eve 1997 storm was very intense here. Unforgettable howl. Even though it was "only" 980-975mb at the time we had gusts up to 95mph here, inland. I'm not sure if a sting jet was involved or what, but looking at the chart archives it did develop very rapidly on the day and was in it's deepening phase as it passed by.

Edited by radiohead
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Posted
  • Location: Warlingham (J6 M25) 175m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Still/Hot or extremes. Fog/Damp etc boring...
  • Location: Warlingham (J6 M25) 175m ASL

No. I'm more terrified of putting myself at risk of any potential bad weather, or if it can be avoided. Crossing motorways a la foot is not to be encouraged...

 

Can look after myself fine. More worried about those around me...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Nahhh I'd be well excited if I lived down south. I've seen some really nasty storms with winds in the 70-90mph range.....quite exhilarating really! Just keep yourself away from flying debris!

 

I remember the Christmas eve storm of 1997 (despite only being 9 at the time) really well. Knocked a lot of the power out around here. Trees down all over the place.

 

I also remember the 27th October 2002. Severe gales of 80mph ripped down through the Cheshire gap. I remember a corrugated iron roof being ripped off a garden shed and blown across my Nan's yard!

 

Then again, I'd LOVE to witness a hurricane.....and a tornado. I always say that if I got killed storm chasing at least I'd die doing something I love.

When I was still living in Leeds, in Feb 1990, there was a wind gust of 98mph in the city centre with sustained wind speeds exceeding 60mph. I don't remember it very well as I was only a young boy, but I would like something similar to occur now. 70mph is child's play!

 

More recently, we (in Church Fenton) had a 77mph wind gust in January 2007, and I'm still here to tell the tale. I think you guys will be fine.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy, windy, cold.
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)

Do they not have homeless hostels down south?  Better than sleeping in  park surely...

Do they not have homeless hostels down south?  Better than sleeping in  park surely...

Haha!! It's a great park with Internet and running water!!
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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Remember it well, the eerie looking pink night sky and very mild temps also gave it away...

 

 

That is what I noticed this afternoon. And that is what finally convinced me this storm's going to be one to remember. The air was incredibly mild with a lot of humidity. Most unseasonable. Then you look at the Finnish road cams and they're well below zero and snowy.

 

Something's got to give when those two air masses meet up.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

This chart shows the spread in the solutions for the Monday storm......the highest uncertainty of any feature in our segment of the N Atlantic

 

Posted Image

 

 

Suggests to me that there could be some more slight N adjustments within the next 24 hours.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Weather Preferences: Windstorm, Thunderstorm, Heavy Squally, Blustery Winds
  • Location: East London

I will be able to move my plastic tables and chairs is senting to back the shed for just tomorrow before the eye of the storm will cause blown thing away from the full force of Hurricane Saint Jude :)

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

Does anybody know what the main direction of the gusts will be in Derbyshire/Notts area!? 

 

Only asking because there is now an ominously large and exposed 40ft conifer tree next to my house, and if the winds are gusting from the NW, well lets just say my house will not be lasting much longer. 

 

On the other hand, im really exited for this one! 

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

I would like to experience a storm of quite a large magnitude just so I can remember it and take it all in as an adult. The others have come at times when I was too young to fully appreciate nature or when I wasn't even born. (my sister was born on the night of the 87 storm, I wasn't born for another 4 years). 

Edited by Mesoscale
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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

Does anybody know what the main direction of the gusts will be in Derbyshire/Notts area!? 

 

Only asking because there is now an ominously large and exposed 40ft conifer tree next to my house, and if the winds are gusting from the NW, well lets just say my house will not be lasting much longer. 

 

On the other hand, im really exited for this one! 

Winds will probably be from the south originally then moving in a north easterly direction before the wind direction changes and comes out of the north west or directly from the north, It just depends as the air moves around the low pressure center, you will have to wait until the models get into a more accurate time frame before knowing. Depending if it shifts or not you could be looking at the center of the low (calm ish) or you could be further out who knows.

Edited by Mesoscale
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Posted
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire

This chart shows the spread in the solutions for the Monday storm......the highest uncertainty of any feature in our segment of the N Atlantic

 

Posted Image

 

 

Suggests to me that there could be some more slight N adjustments within the next 24 hours.

slap bang over Lincolnshire Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 6h

W COUNTRY #ukstorm Latest UKMO analysis consistent w previous broadcasts: 60-70mph gusts inland SW/W Country; & now adding 30% Prob 80-90mph

Batten down the hatches!!

Edited by Bristol/John
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