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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

So glad that the adults here do take us younger one's serious. Back on topic. 12Z: post-18097-0-65549200-1382738580_thumb.p

18Z: post-18097-0-49245100-1382738621_thumb.p

 

To compare the two charts I think 18Z, shows the system very slightly further west with winds stronger on it's western edge. Also the isobars look a little more compact and the low being slightly deeper. 18Z does look a little more dangerous using my knowledge.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

I'm scared because I'm camping Sunday night into Monday in Devon... :'(

 

i've never tried tent-flying.... could be fun.... let us know- if you survive,,,,

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

I am confused does that chart mean the wind speeds.

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Just Before Dawn Enthusiast

Just Before Dawn

Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
Posted

There's the potential for some very high wave heights in the Channel on Monday morning based on 18z - 8 metres plus in places with the right benthic topography given the wind strength and direction.  Expect dramatic pictures from places like Bournemouth or Lyme Regis on Monday morning.

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

This is just for you lot with the winds coming Anyone care to join me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA-g8YYPKVo

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

GFS deeper on this run and some very worrying wind gusts for Southern England, 70-80mph.

Incidentally all hot air ballooning flights this weekend have been cancelled throughout the Uk. Have no idea why ;)

Camping is a no go! Obviously

Edited by Mark N
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Rich_T Contributor

Rich_T

Posted
  • Location: UK, just south of Derby
  • Location: UK, just south of Derby
Posted

In recent years, possibly fueled by the demands of instant 24 hour news there does seem to be a little hype with weather events with some of them either not materilising, or being far tamer than predicted.

I'm scared because I'm camping Sunday night into Monday in Devon.

 As for camping in bad weather - high winds rain etc its all down to what type of tent you have.

With Nylon type tents that have bendy poles that you have to thread through - if these are higher than your chest  then they are next to useless in high winds+ rain. when the wind blows they flaten, and if its raining then they can let water through as the inner section touches/makes contact with the outer ( flysheet)

 If the tent is lower then it has a better chance - but i would advise that you use wooden pegs on the main guy lines/where ever possible.

 

With Nylon tents -  as a rule of thumb, if you can stand up in your tent, then it wont stand up in a storm.

 

If the tent is old school canvas then make sure you put it up with the back of the tent facing the wind, and thr door at the other end - this will help prevent water/rain driving through the door gaps/zips  and make sure that it is well pegged out in some good ground.

If you have a 'hike' tent and you have put it up correctly in a good spot then you should be OK in most bad weather situations.

 its all down to your choice of where you site your tent

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

There's the potential for some very high wave heights in the Channel on Monday morning based on 18z - 8 metres plus in places with the right benthic topography given the wind strength and direction.  Expect dramatic pictures from places like Bournemouth or Lyme Regis on Monday morning.

 

Yes indeed, I'm happy with my location for a change! Bring it on!

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Yes indeed, I'm happy with my location for a change! Bring it on!

Coastal cams will be very interesting to watch.
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SteveCoops Enthusiast

SteveCoops

Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
Posted

Hi, lurker here (only seem come out when it's exciting weather!)

 

Thanks for all the info - loving reading it! I'm just outside Southend on Sea, so am expecting no trains on Monday to work at least!

 

Got a query though - on the chart Gael_Force posted showing wind speeds at 925hPa, if the pressure at sea level gets down to say 970 as predicted, then what height above sea level are those speeds? I'm guessing only a few hundred metres?

 

Cheers,

Steve

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

GFS deeper on this run and some very worrying wind gusts for Southern England, 70-80mph.

Incidentally all hot air ballooning flights this weekend have been cancelled throughout the Uk. Have no idea why Posted Image

Camping is a no go! Obviously

 

 

Never mind the gusts, the mean wind speeds right in the far South East are not far off 70 on this run.

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coldfingers Enthusiast

coldfingers

Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
Posted

There's the potential for some very high wave heights in the Channel on Monday morning based on 18z - 8 metres plus in places with the right benthic topography given the wind strength and direction.  Expect dramatic pictures from places like Bournemouth or Lyme Regis on Monday morning.

Someone yesterday gave me a link to two webcams of the beach in Selsey in W.Sussex . They will be good for Monday morning.

http://beautifulbeach.bunn-leisure.co.uk/webcam.aspx

Bognor also has a superb one with sound as well as superb view of the beach at Bognor.

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

Sadly today it is off!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Aaargh if it isn't working on Monday morning I wont be responsible for my behaviour!

Worth saving these links for Monday, if they aren't blown away. LOL

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Coastal cams will be very interesting to watch.

 

I will be posting vids/pics in my Regional!

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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

There's the potential for some very high wave heights in the Channel on Monday morning based on 18z - 8 metres plus in places with the right benthic topography given the wind strength and direction.  Expect dramatic pictures from places like Bournemouth or Lyme Regis on Monday morning.

Neap tides ATM so maybe not as good as some storms!

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

In recent years, possibly fueled by the demands of instant 24 hour news there does seem to be a little hype with weather events with some of them either not materilising, or being far tamer than predicted.

 

 As for camping in bad weather - high winds rain etc its all down to what type of tent you have.

With Nylon type tents that have bendy poles that you have to thread through - if these are higher than your chest  then they are next to useless in high winds+ rain. when the wind blows they flaten, and if its raining then they can let water through as the inner section touches/makes contact with the outer ( flysheet)

 If the tent is lower then it has a better chance - but i would advise that you use wooden pegs on the main guy lines/where ever possible.

 

With Nylon tents -  as a rule of thumb, if you can stand up in your tent, then it wont stand up in a storm.

 

If the tent is old school canvas then make sure you put it up with the back of the tent facing the wind, and thr door at the other end - this will help prevent water/rain driving through the door gaps/zips  and make sure that it is well pegged out in some good ground.

If you have a 'hike' tent and you have put it up correctly in a good spot then you should be OK in most bad weather situations.

 its all down to your choice of where you site your tent

 

good advice. better advice- wait until you might not die....

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2810lollypop Contributor

2810lollypop

Posted
  • Location: hastings riviera 4 last 10 years .born & bred in croydon
  • Weather Preferences: proper seasons ! hot sunny summers & cold snowy winters
  • Location: hastings riviera 4 last 10 years .born & bred in croydon
Posted

I'm scared because I'm camping Sunday night into Monday in Devon... :'(

Are you mad ? !   That is a very bad idea Posted Image  .Go later in the week when all this has passed. Although night time temperatures are set to fall next week . Better idea ,go camping next summer !!! Posted Image

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Ian Fergusson: W COUNTRY #ukstorm Latest UKMO analysis consistent w previous broadcasts: 60-70mph gusts inland SW/W Country; & now adding 30% Prob 80-90mph

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recoil76 Newbie

recoil76

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme!
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
Posted (edited)

I remember during the 87 storm my brother was camping in some woods near us and was woken by what he thought was someone firing a shotgun, what it actually was happened to be the trees in the distance literally snapping in half by the force of the wind as it approached him. He got out of there pdq needless to say!

Edited by recoil76
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TwisterGirl81 Experienced

TwisterGirl81

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted

Ian Fergusson: W COUNTRY #ukstorm Latest UKMO analysis consistent w previous broadcasts: 60-70mph gusts inland SW/W Country; & now adding 30% Prob 80-90mph

Ok now I'm worried! A week ago I really thought this would be another downgrade for us, day by day my concern has been growing....I'm confused also as I thought the worst winds hit Devon and Cornwall in the early hous but in the latest GFS run it looks like it'll be rush hour for us in the southwest?
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Kiwi Experienced

Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
Posted

There's the potential for some very high wave heights in the Channel on Monday morning based on 18z - 8 metres plus in places with the right benthic topography given the wind strength and direction.  Expect dramatic pictures from places like Bournemouth or Lyme Regis on Monday morning.

 

post-1808-0-70301300-1382740423_thumb.jp

 

Not sure if this is Bournemouth?

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