Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill  

 

A corker then for you!!!!

[doctormog]

Well said.. It also isn't good seamanship. Not even the most experienced seadog would consider a trip. The shipping forecast is there for a reason. Storm force onwards is a warning to all sea vessels. It isn't a bit of romantic poetry. There's a sea saying "a big ship will always be a small boat in a big sea" .... Just stay in the harbour and a have a pint instead.

"Aargh you've got a woman's bravery m'lord"?http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120830144210/blackadder/images/a/a4/Redbeard_Rum.gifOn a more serious note those postage stamps seem to have a majority of options resulting in very windy conditions across southern parts and a few very nasty options.

[Polar Bear]

Just got back from a long drive from the south coast. The VMSs on the M25 are up warning of strong gales Sunday Monday .. Those went up before we had that snow event last year. Local authorities have had their warnings on the south coast so contractors are on alert. The thing that struck me though most tonight was generally how very mild it is tonight and there is a lovely albeit a little gusty breeze tonight. It really is quite lovely out there!

Hoping though that whatever happens on Sunday into Monday people take heed. Forewarned is prearmed ...(is it that way around?). But tomorrow I would like to know more how far inland it could get. Id like to warn my friends that this time for those horses that do still stay out at night.. Ought to on this occasion be brought in. ....

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick, do you think this could be as bad as 1987 for us in the south?

No comment! lol These types of depressions are always complete nightmares, they're not your normal large system crossing the Atlantic and so their behaviour can be quite unpredictable.

[NickR]

Be braced for themselves with very powerful hurricane strength storms can cause blown you away and stay away from the outside of the storms.Don't go out with 100mph that could cause potentially very dangerous winds will cause blown you away from the full force of Hurricane Saint Jude could really be very powerful intense storms. 

 

Why are you repeating the same basic point several times in each post? 

[icyskidski]

I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill  

hell I live in that area too and I'm right on a clifftop, completely exposed! (my flat is exposed, I don't intend to be...lol)

[P-M]

Be braced for themselves with very powerful hurricane strength storms can cause blown you away and stay away from the outside of the storms.Don't go out with 100mph that could cause potentially very dangerous winds will cause blown you away from the full force of Hurricane Saint Jude could really be very powerful intense storms. 

 

 

I have no idea what this means other than people will blow away...

[coldfingers]

Just got back from a long drive from the south coast. The VMSs on the M25 are up warning of strong gales Sunday Monday .. Those went up before we had that snow event last year. Local authorities have had their warnings on the south coast so contractors are on alert. The thing that struck me though most tonight was generally how very mild it is tonight and there is a lovely albeit a little gusty breeze tonight. It really is quite lovely out there!

Hoping though that whatever happens on Sunday into Monday people take heed. Forewarned is prearmed ...(is it that way around?). But tomorrow I would like to know more how far inland it could get. Id like to warn my friends that this time for those horses that do still stay out at night.. Ought to on this occasion be brought in. ....

Hi Polar bear. Been down visiting the parents? Hope all is well with you and stays that way into late Monday. Tomorrow my garden will be tidier than all summer. LOL.

[fergieweather]

I've just put this link out http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=9957which explains about Sting Jets and there is the potential for this to happen from this Monday storm and that would give the >100mph winds

Indeed. We consider stingjet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.

[paul m]

Hang on no offence but here we go again...can't people just take on board what the text says!

How will Nick know..and no offence intended - warnings are out and have been since yesterday, what more do people expect?

Next weeks winning lotto numbers for a start

[feb1991blizzard]

Without a sting jet would that rule out hurricane force gusts and make it just likely to be a very bad storm?

[karlos1983]

Indeed. We consider stingjet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.

invaluable information, thanks for your input Ian. especially for folk in my neck of the woods.

[West Sussex Kate]

Hang on no offence but here we go again...can't people just take on board what the text says!How will Nick know..and no offence intended - warnings are out and have been since yesterday, what more do people expect?

ok. Edited October 25, 2013 by West Sussex Kate

[syed2878]

i know this type of weather can be dangerous but i cant help getting excited. I enjoy extreme weather as long as no1 gets hertt. As long as peeps take heed of warnings there's nothing wrong having extreme weather, it adds to the excitement.

[karlos1983]

i know this type of weather can be dangerous but i cant help getting excited. I enjoy extreme weather as long as no1 gets hertt. As long as peeps take heed of warnings there's nothing wrong having extreme weather, it adds to the excitement.

like attempting to sail to Isle of Scilly, couldn't agree more 

[mountain shadow]

Well at least the Met Office have ruled out a Sting Jet, that's a plus at least.

[khodds]

Well at least the Met Office have ruled out a Sting Jet, that's a plus at least.

Ummm... I don't think they have... See Ian's post above

[paul m]

I have no idea what this means other than people will blow away...

From what i can see it says dont go out with 100mph as he/she may blow you....

[Jax]

99% of the music I listen to is you tube

[Richie V]

Red noses and floppy shoes aside, those living round cheshire, notts, derby, south yorks and lincs need to be on alert if this thing exits the humber. On the BBC n24 update the isobars were so close together over these regions it was hard to see the spacing...... BBC look north now saying be on guard. ....... Reports of flash flooding in Todmorden this eve!

[chionomaniac]

I think that the met office tweet to Tom suggested that the criteria aren't met for a sting jet at the moment, but I don't think that it can be ruled out completely 2+ days away. There are certainly some parameters that do meet the possibility of a sting jet, so it is a bit early to rule it in or out.

[radiohead]

18Z GFS is rolling, only out to 42 hours, but it's 5mb deeper than the 12Z so far.

 

977mb at 48 hours.

Edited October 25, 2013 by radiohead

[Richie V]

18Z GFS is rolling, only out to 42 hours, but it's 5mb deeper than the 12Z so far.

if this is the case this could be critical. Refer to my lunchtime post. Rember, the oct 2000 storm past direct overhead and I still got hurricane force gusts.

[mountain shadow]

Ummm... I don't think they have... See Iani's post above

Sorry, didn't see Ians post. Was going by Tom Jarvis post on previous page.Seem to contradict one another?

[khodds]

Sorry, didn't see Ians post. Was going by Tom Jarvis post on previous page.Seem to contradict one another?

Think Ian is going by latest info in... Anyway, we will see... I'm getting a little excited/nervous/scared now....!