Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Tracie Fluffie Morse]

thought i would share the comments below are worth a read    http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane

[A.J]

Earlier on today apparently a woman phoned up the Daily Star and said that she'd heard a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're reading, don't worry there isn't....just a MEGAKILLING HYPERSTORM INSTEAD!!!.....

[AWD]

^^ Cor, might buy the Mirror solely for that picture of Miranda!!

[Tom Jarvis]

Daily Mirror front page tomorrow

 

 

Daily Express front page

 

   

[karlos1983]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

 

Please don't, putting your own life at risk is one thing, putting other peoples life's at risk though your own stupidity is another, which is what will happen when you send a distress call to the coastguard. Ferry crossings cancelled already, i think attempting to make that trip would be moronic!

[nick sussex]

the explainer on that is great

I agree really interesting see that analysis of the 1987 storm. Apparently Klaus which hit here in 2009 did have that sting jet, more remarkably for that storm was the wind speeds recorded much further east towards Perpignan caused by a funnelling effect through the Pyrenees, thankfully that's not an issue for areas likely to be effected by this forecast storm in the UK.You certainly look to have a busy couple of days Jo, hopefully people will heed the warnings and we won't see people taking risks.

[A.J]

Did you hear the one about the Irish amateur meteorologist who though that 'cyclogenesis' was actually a pushbike that creates itself?

 

 

 

I'll fetch me coat

[samadamsuk]

hey all.

 

Looks to me that the ana cold front wont be quite as active as it looked to be a little earlier when this thing crosses the south - maybe not the tn feature that we were looking at before. All eyes to the satellites for a sting jet feature when it's close! I think the brain child of the double titan mega super whopper at burger king has a new job! haha .. good god - how are they allowed to get away with these things ..

 

Samos

[Jo Farrow]

Daily Mirror front page tomorrow

 

 

Daily Express front page

 

At least the Mirror says Hurricane strength winds, not an actual hurricane

[bobbydog]

the DAILY PACK OF LIES reports today-

 

"MASSIVE DEADLY KILLER MURDEROUS, QUITE UNPLEASANT, MOTHER OF ALL MEGA... (NO...) 'GIGA'STORMS TO HIT UK"

 

"monday could see the UK being blown from its moorings and landing in siberia" said james madden, of abitvagueweather.com.

"we could, (no) will all end up being buried under 500 feet of snow"

 

a met office spokesman said- "there is the potential for patio furniture to be knocked over, BINS to be seriously blown around and even for TREES to lose several leaves"

 

he added- "it would be a potentially dangerous day to put your washing out- several socks could be lost"

[teeno]

I wish the misquoting of Michael Fish would stop. A hurricane didn't hit England, it was a storm. Just like Monday's. 

I agree hurricanes dont roam in our location never have never will, it will be a bad atlantic storm

[samadamsuk]

the meds had a few warm core baratropic storms over the years .. I'd love to be in one!

[Tom Jarvis]

just had this from the met office about the possibility of a sting jet

tom jarvis â€@sandle08 26m

@metoffice is there a chance that the storm on Monday could have a sting jet and are you taking this into account in your forecast

 

 

Met Office â€@metoffice 7m

@sandle08 We have taken it into account. While there are some strong tail winds it doesn't meet the criteria for a String Jet. ^JS

[Storm Track]

Be braced for themselves with very powerful hurricane strength storms can cause blown you away and stay away from the outside of the storms.

Don't go out with 100mph that could cause potentially very dangerous winds will cause blown you away from the full force of Hurricane Saint Jude could really be very powerful intense storms.

[feb1991blizzard]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpuzlBxuD0g

 

 

[Jo Farrow]

 

just had this from the met office about the possibility of a sting jet

tom jarvis â€@sandle08 26m

@metoffice is there a chance that the storm on Monday could have a sting jet and are you taking this into account in your forecast

 

 

Met Office â€@metoffice 7m

@sandle08 We have taken it into account. While there are some strong tail winds it doesn't meet the criteria for a String Jet. ^JS

 

String Jet? 

[Bloggulator]

There are a lot of posts comparing this potential storm to the October 16, 1987 event. I hope for everyone's sake that this is not the case: in 1987, despite shredding large areas of SE England, the area actually dodged a bullet - the core of the most violent winds tracked over NW France, up the English Channel into the Southern North Sea, missing major population centers, affecting the extreme South coast, parts of Kent and East Anglia The wind strength in the Channel and NW France was phenomenal for an extra-tropical cyclone.

 

For examples:

Pointe du Raz: 10 min. sustained wind 107mph (93kt) , highest gust 134mph (116kt) (!) The anemometer was destroyed shortly after midnight before the period of strongest winds.

Penmarch: 10 min sustained wind 109 mph (95kt) (!)

Quimper:  10 min. sustained 89 mph (77kt)

Isle de Batz: 10 min. sustained 100 mph (86 kt)

Barfleur: 10 min. sustained 80mph

Royal Sovereign Lightship (English Channel) One *hour* sustained (!) 86mph (75kt)

Lee on Solent (UK): 10 min. sustained 80 mph (70kt)

Gorleston (UK) One hour sustained 78 mph (68kt)

The lowest sea level pressure was recorded at Ouessant, NW France, at 949hPa.

 

These are the type of figures seen in a Category 1 or 2 hurricane - except we have another difficulty here re. standards: Here in the US, our own National Weather Service (NHC/NOAA) classifies tropical systems according to sustained winds over ONE minute... not 10 minutes, r one hour. Hurricane force 12 on the Beaufort scale requires 10 minutes of 75mph+, (64kt+)

 

If the worst weather observed in October 1987 tracked across mainland England, there would be potential for major loss of life and extreme damage to property, and probably major coastal flooding in the SW coastal areas from storm surge. Of course the figures quoted above were only experienced on exposed coastal locations, and sustained surface wind speeds are always reduced inland, especially at lower levels, on account of friction, buildings, hills etc. Not to forget, high rise buildings are at greater risk for damage... in October 1987, even in urban London quite some distance from the core of strongest winds, there was a gust of 94mph recorded at the top of a tall building.

 

The October 16 event was also a relatively compact system compared to other mid latitude cyclones.

 

The upcoming October 28 storm may not even materialize as forecast - it is not impossible for it to end up as merely a rapidly moving wave depression on an active cold front attached to its parent primary depression; however, as suggested by the majority of models, this could be a significant wind event. It is also not impossible that the relevant parameters could all coincide to create a worst case scenario, as detailed above. Just my 2 red cents, from the relatively (meteorologically speaking) benign Southern California coast!

 

Stay safe!

[doctormog]

I agree hurricanes dont roam in our location never have never will, it will be a bad atlantic storm

Just to be pedantic... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Faith

[bobbydog]

String Jet? 

 

its like a sting jet but we don't know how long it is.....

[radiohead]

12Z GFS showing convective gusts up to 80 knots (92 mph) possible in the far souheast.

 

[A.J]

String Jet? 

next thing we know is the met office will issue 'string vest' warnings for beach-loving northerners.....lol

[nick sussex]

The latest ECM postage stamps are out, very strong support for this storm at T72hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013102512!!/

Whats apparent is that theres a relatively narrow area of the strongest winds to the south of the low centre and so any deviations from current forecast track will make a huge difference.

Of course those ECM ensembles are run at a lower resolution than the operational run so that has to be taken into account here but I would be very surprised to see a big downgrade in the storm.

The UKMO forecasts seem to be taking the storm ne, some of the ensembles and other NWP take this more ene, so still time for some changes.

Edited October 25, 2013 by nick sussex

[West Sussex Kate]

The latest ECM postage stamps are out, very strong support for this storm at T72hrs:http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013102512!!/Whats apparent is that theres a relatively narrow area of the strongest winds to the south of the low centre and so any deviations from current forecast track will make a huge difference.Of course those ECM ensembles are run at a low resolution than the operational run so that has to be taken into account here but I would be very surprised to see a big downgrade in the storm.The UKMO forecasts seem to be taking the storm ne, some of the ensembles and other NWP take this more ene, so still time for some changes.

Hi Nick, do you think this could be as bad as 1987 for us in the south? Edited October 25, 2013 by West Sussex Kate

[Polar Bear]

Please don't, putting your own life at risk is one thing, putting other peoples life's at risk though your own stupidity is another, which is what will happen when you send a distress call to the coastguard. Ferry crossings cancelled already, i think attempting to make that trip would be moronic!

Well said.. It also isn't good seamanship. Not even the most experienced seadog would consider a trip. The shipping forecast is there for a reason. Storm force onwards is a warning to all sea vessels. It isn't a bit of romantic poetry. There's a sea saying "a big ship will always be a small boat in a big sea" .... Just stay in the harbour and a have a pint instead.

[Tom Jarvis]

12Z GFS showing convective gusts up to 80 knots (92 mph) possible in the far souheast.

 

I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill