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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Lots of talk in various regional and model threads here about the very low pressure system coming to the UK in the early hours of next Monday morning. 

 

Hopefully this can be a thread to focus those thoughts and data, so everyone can follow the evolution to a notable storm, or a near miss.

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Current NMM wind gusts:

 

post-6667-0-99632600-1382597314_thumb.pn post-6667-0-72528200-1382597316_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-29148900-1382597318_thumb.pn

 
MetO 5 day wind gusts for Monday morning:
 
post-6667-0-70854700-1382598874_thumb.jp
 
All looks nasty at  the moment.

 

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65mph gusts isn't a storm in my book. Look like Autumn to me

 

Rustling leaves and ruffled hairdos warrant warnings these days. The world has gone soft in the head. Someone call a counsellor.

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It even has a name according to the Telegraph:

 

Britons warned to batten down the hatches ahead of storm

 
Weather forecasters are closely monitoring the progress of the St Jude Storm, which could reach the South West by Monday morning, bringing with it a trail of destruction
 
Britons are being warned to "batten down the hatches" as the St Jude storm, bringing 90mph winds, threatens to hit on Monday. The heavy winds, combined with up to 30mm of rain, could bring down trees and cause structural damage, forecasters have said.
 
Wales and South West England are likely to be hit first on Monday morning, in time for the beginning of half-term, before the low pressure system moves rapidly east. Although the path of the storm remains unclear, it is expected to effect large swathes of the country. Exposed coastal areas in the south could see gusts of up to 90mph, while winds of 70mph are predicted inland.
 
Leon Brown, meteorologist at The Weather Channel, said: “These winds may bring down trees and cause structural damage, so batten down the hatches. There will also be some heavy rain with 15 to 30mm likely as the low pressure system moves rapidly east. The detail and timing may yet change since the storm has 5000 miles to develop and spin up.†Over the next ten days, he added, we could also see double the amount of rain fall that we normally see for the entire of the month, increasing the risk of flooding in areas which are already saturated.
 
The St Jude storm – named after the patron saint of depression and lost causes whose feast day falls on Monday – is currently a “a minor disturbance over the Gulf of Mexicoâ€, but it is feared that it could gather momentum as it reaches Britain. In the mean time the county is facing more unsettled wet weather. After a brief respite tomorrow a band of heavy rain will move northwards early on Friday and is likely to linger over the weekend.
 
The Environment Agency has warned of flooding in the Midlands, the North and Wales. Despite being battered by wind and rain the temperatures will remain above average for the rest of this week and into Monday, hovering around 15C across in the South and gradually getting cooler further north before dropping into single figures in Northern Scotland. There will also be the potential for some gale force winds in western areas over the weekend, Mr Brown added, which will feel the brunt of the rain.
 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10399012/Britons-warned-to-batten-down-the-hatches-ahead-of-storm.html

 

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'65mph gusts isn't a storm in my book. Look like Autumn to me'

 

I agree that people are a lot softer about these things today but that's 24 hour news for you, the days of the famous 1930's BBC news report of 'there is no news today' have long gone.

Mind you 65 mph gusts at rush hour with trees in full leaf is likely to cause disruption and I think there would be a lot more complaints if warnings weren't given and of course we wouldn't have anything to talk about on forums like this one.Posted Image

Edited by bjaykent
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At this stage it looks like an event for the south this is the north east England text forecast

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Generally very unsettled and sometimes very windy through this period, with successive spells of rain sweeping in from the west, separated by brighter but showery weather.

 

And the UK one

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Dry in places on Saturday before rain and strong winds return later. Sunshine, showers and strong winds on Sunday. Potentially turning very stormy on Monday, particularly across southern areas.

 

And Northern Ireland's

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Drier, brighter start to Saturday then wet and windy. Bright interludes and heavy showers on Sunday and still quite windy. Drier with sunny spells and lighter winds on Monday.

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So looking at the current radar in the gulf of mexico i take it our monday storm is being born just off the coast of the yucatan peninsula,

 

would the direction of this low take it into the path of tropical depression lorenzo

 

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At this stage it looks like an event for the south this is the north east England text forecast

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Generally very unsettled and sometimes very windy through this period, with successive spells of rain sweeping in from the west, separated by brighter but showery weather.

 

And the UK one

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Dry in places on Saturday before rain and strong winds return later. Sunshine, showers and strong winds on Sunday. Potentially turning very stormy on Monday, particularly across southern areas.

 

And Northern Ireland's

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Drier, brighter start to Saturday then wet and windy. Bright interludes and heavy showers on Sunday and still quite windy. Drier with sunny spells and lighter winds on Monday.

 

At this stage it looks like an event for the south this is the north east England text forecast

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Generally very unsettled and sometimes very windy through this period, with successive spells of rain sweeping in from the west, separated by brighter but showery weather.

 

And the UK one

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Dry in places on Saturday before rain and strong winds return later. Sunshine, showers and strong winds on Sunday. Potentially turning very stormy on Monday, particularly across southern areas.

 

And Northern Ireland's

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Drier, brighter start to Saturday then wet and windy. Bright interludes and heavy showers on Sunday and still quite windy. Drier with sunny spells and lighter winds on Monday.

subject to a lot of change i would expect gav

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subject to a lot of change i would expect gav

 

Of course current thinking seems to be it will affect the south but I remember a few years back one was due to hit the south but in the end it went across France, Holland ect and missed the UK

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watching the bbc weather earlier that was mentioned that it could just end up in france with a breezy south coast, 1 of a few possibilites nobody will no for for sure till sat i would of thought

Edited by Lee aka Boro Snow
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watching the bbc weather earlier that was mentioned that it could just end up in france with a breezy south coast, 1 of a few possibilites nobody will no for for sure till sat i would of thought

 

Yep, its possible it goes further south..or north. Yesterday the ECMWF (and GFS for a while) were showing the worst of the winds ending up in France, but this morning its changed to a more intense and more northerly track similar to the current GFS. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see more changes on the models in the days ahead!

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Channel 4 weatherman, Liam Dutton's blog on Monday:

 

 

Nasty autumn storm possible on Monday

 

There’s no doubt that the weather has turned very lively during the past week. Areas of low pressure have barrelled in off the Atlantic, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Sunday saw a suspected tornado hit Hayling Island in Hampshire, damaging around 100 homes and ripping up trees. It’s common for the weather to be very unsettled at this time of year as the jet stream takes its seasonal journey southwards, in response to cooling taking place at higher latitudes.

The jet stream is driven by the temperature contrast between the cold poles and warm equator, with its path marked by the zone of greatest temperature contrast at mid-latitudes.
 
As the air becomes increasingly cold to the north of the UK, this increases the strength of this temperature contrast and causes the jet stream to pick up speed, as well as head south. The end result is for low pressure systems to form over the Atlantic Ocean and then be catapulted towards us by winds of around 150mph at 30,000ft – the height at which planes fly.
 
Possible storm late Sunday into Monday
 
Something of particular concern that has been hinted at by the weather computer models in recent days is the possible formation of a nasty storm that could arrive later Sunday and into Monday. It is worth emphasising that there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the exact track of the storm and how nasty it will be, but given that it is a possibility, it needs to be highlighted. At the moment, different weather computer models are handling the severity and path of the storm differently. The American GFS model takes the centre of the storm across northern England, which would give much of England and Wales gusts of wind of 50-65mph inland, with 65-80mph for coasts and hills.
 
However, the UK Met Office and European ECMWF model have a more southerly track for the storm, which would take the worst of the winds through the English Channel and over northern France. Why such a range of possible outcomes? The formation of storms is finely balanced and needs a number of factors to come together in the right place at the right time. In order for a nasty storm to form, the fastest part of the jet stream at 30,000ft up needs to phase in time with the greatest zone of warmth, moisture and energy at the surface. If they are slightly out of phase, the path and intensity of a developing storm can be affected hugely.
 
It is these subtleties that are making it difficult to pin down the detail at this point and is why the situation will need to be closely monitored in the coming days. Even if we are spared a nasty storm, the weather through this weekend and into next week will still be wet and windy with gales

 

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Sums it up nicely, Robin...The 'writing's been on the wall' for some time now. So, there's no need to invoke the extraordinary...

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Whatever the outcome of this, they'll be some strong winds either way, so i'll be taking a trip down to the coast with my trusty Kestrel anemometer. I don't know if i'll  be bothered to go to Portland or not, as that's always a good place, so i may stick local and just go for a mountain bike ride down to the coast instead. 

Edited by Mapantz
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Amber warning : London and South East, South West.

 

Issued at:
1038 on Thu 24 Oct 2013

Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Valid to:
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

 

Warning

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday,bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.  At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However,the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and otherstructures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies. 

Chief Forecastors Assessment

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it. 

It is the lowest amber in terms of likelyhood, and the highest on the impact scale.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Met O amber warning out:

 

post-6667-0-65294500-1382608532_thumb.jp

 
Amber Alert of Wind28 Oct 2013, 01:05
Issued at - 24 Oct 2013, 10:38
Valid from - 28 Oct 2013, 01:05
Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 22:00
 
A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.  
 
At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

 

 

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Wet and windy weather is forecast through the weekend but things are expected to take a severe turn for the worse on Sunday, going into Monday. Dan Williams, senior press officer at the Met Office, said: "There is potential for a significant storm to come through. We can see some strong winds with gusts of 70-80mph in exposed parts.
 
Mr Williams said the storm had not yet formulated but added: "All the ingredients are there. We've got a really strong jet stream and warm air and the combination could create a deep, vigorous low pressure to the west of the UK." Heavy rain and strong winds are forecast through the weekend ahead of the probable arrival of the major storm. Mr Williams said: "There is all of that going on but people should really keep an eye out for Sunday night and Monday."
 
The Weather Channel has christened the weather event the 'Saint Jude Day Storm' after the patron saint of desperation and lost causes. The channel said according to its forecasts gusts could reach up to 90mph with rainfall of up to 40mm on Monday morning.

 

 
 
 

 

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As you folks are far more experienced with these things than I am, how unusual would you say it is for the Met to issue an Amber warning this far out, and one which is fairly strongly worded too? 

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As you folks are far more experienced with these things than I am, how unusual would you say it is for the Met to issue an Amber warning this far out, and one which is fairly strongly worded too? 

 

Very unusual. I think it is because the impact of it occurring is so great. Note that the likelyhood is low-risk.

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