South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[hernebaylooby]

well my nice new conservatory was nice while it lasted

[Coast]

OK, taking the hi-res Netweather NNM latest run, the action starts earlier now but is non-the-less potent and still affects broadly the same areas. Our regional coasts would get slammed if this played out (much as the other models) and I'm not sure if it's a good thing that this run moves it back a few hours. Here's the animated wind gusts anyway:

 

[Tamara]

I posted the ECM operational sequence earlier. The ECM individual maps give little reassurance with some very ugly charts...These are for midday Monday

 

 

It looks to me that there is good agreement that the bulk of the storm is in daylight hours and rather later than the GFS and NMM is suggesting

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Keraunic]

It's weird but....a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that....after the storms the other night, it all reminded me of the conditions just before the 1987 event. Spooky!!!!!

[Guest bjaykent]

I'm not going to lose too much sleep over it, there is little you can do but stay safe inside while it passes through and of course it still might not happen, fax chart tomorrow evening will decide it I expect. I was sleeping quite happily through 1987 storm until a tree hit the house, thankfully haven't got any close enough to me for any repeat of that.

 

As for an appropriate song how about Hey Jude, particularly with the first line 'Hey Jude don't make it bad'

 

Nice day here now despite the wind, sunny spells 19c.

[Coast]

there is little you can do but stay safe inside while it passes through 

 

Let's hope everyone does Ian

Edited October 25, 2013 by Coast

[Keraunic]

My bed is right under the window............'gulp' Maybe I should shift it.

[Tamara]

I'm not going to lose too much sleep over it, there is little you can do but stay safe inside while it passes through and of course it still might not happen, fax chart tomorrow evening will decide it I expect. I was sleeping quite happily through 1987 storm until a tree hit the house, thankfully haven't got any close enough to me for any repeat of that.

 

As for an appropriate song how about Hey Jude, particularly with the first line 'Hey Jude don't make it bad'

 

Nice day here now despite the wind, sunny spells 19c.

I like your attitude and philosophy. Its a good one to have I have to admit though I am increasingly very worried about this - I compared it with the November 2009 storm yesterday but the model suggestions have intensified further since then and the development of this one has something rather more exceptional about it that I don't like at all.  Its easy to see that the 2009 storm was already well developed by the time it arrived from the SW

 

Wheras this one is suggested to unleash itself just as it arrives instead and the ECM suggests a 20mb drop in pressure in just 12 hrs!! The nature of such a system has even more dangerous potential.  Gusts of wind over 80mph occured in some coastal/hillier exposed parts even with that storm system in 2009 so that makes me especially worried about what this system might be capable of. A coastal location like this feels especially vulnerable, even though obviously lots of us are at quite a risk from this  Uff - sometimes some modest learning/knowledge about these things on these forums is not good...there is something to be said for "ignorance is bliss"

 

Any hope of a sudden downgrade and escape from this thing is starting to look unlikely it seems

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Steve C]

Just looking through some old, poor quality photos from 1987.

Here is one of a large beech tree that smashed through the gable of a house, a two minute walk from where I lived at the time.

This is at the junction of Sturrick Lane and Thorrington Road in Great Bentley.

I took a few of the devastated woodlands too, which I won't bother posting, but it reminded me of just how devastating it was. It also reminded me of how the woodlands have recovered since, with little evidence of the destruction that was wrought, in most cases.

Not that I'm expecting a repeat, although we may obviously be facing something quite destructive, especially since (imho) we've had relatively quiet autumns / winters for the last 10 years and there may be a lot of unstable trees about -actually a fairly large one just collapsed into the main road, near where I live, without any real winds to cause it, only a month or so ago!

[lawrenk]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400&regionName=se

 

2 more boxses till red warning :/ Amber area extended much further North 

Given that as we get the nearer the event the certainty of the track of the storm will be greater does that this mean this could go up to red?

[Guest bjaykent]

Hi Tamara,

 

you have to be fairly philosophical about these things, there's really nothing you can do but be sensible, hopefully most people will have contingency plans and avoid dangerous journeys but sadly you know that some people have no choice but to go out in all weathers.

 

If it does happen I'm sure there will be stories about someone being swept away by the waves or being blown off mountain top with others having to risk their lives to save them.

 

Lets hope it downgrades, after all I don't think the low even exist yet, does it?.

 

As for your position you do sound a bit exposed there, my position is a little more sheltered here on the North Kent Marshes with ground rising to my south and west, just stay safe, property damage although inconvenient can always be fixed in time.

 

As for me I will probably sleep through it if it comes in the night, being a man in my 40's, believe me I can can sleep almost anywhere and through anything.

 

Ian

[Steve C]

Given that as we get the nearer the event the certainty of the track of the storm will be greater does that this mean this could go up to red?

I'd say there would be a pretty good chance if the circumstances remain unchanged, as far as the Met Office current thinking is concerned.

Would they ever issue a red warning this far out? I guess it might happen if there was a likely very severe easterly expected (Jan 1987 etc.) but I've no idea and it must be an extremely rare occurrence. 

[Tamara]

Just looking through some old, poor quality photos from 1987.

Here is one of a large beech tree that smashed through the gable of a house, a two minute walk from where I lived at the time.

This is at the junction of Sturrick Lane and Thorrington Road in Great Bentley.

IMG.jpg

I took a few of the devastated woodlands too, which I won't bother posting, but it reminded me of just how devastating it was. It also reminded me of how the woodlands have recovered since, with little evidence of the destruction that was wrought, in most cases.

Not that I'm expecting a repeat, although we may obviously be facing something quite destructive, especially since (imho) we've had relatively quiet autumns / winters for the last 10 years and there may be a lot of unstable trees about -actually a fairly large one just collapsed into the main road, near where I live, without any real winds to cause it, only a month or so ago!

One 'good' thing is that I don't have any large trees close enough to the house to worry about - though there is a line of sycamore trees right at the bottom of the garden that would cause plenty of problems to the garden itself if they came down. Also the neighbourhood in general along my road has no large trees at all. What few there are, are all within about 20ft anyway. Its a case of choosing a suitable car parking space...

 

I'll have to bring indoors some of my potted plants and palms and in general secure anything that could easily become airbourne. From an IMBY pov - the south westerly onshore phase of the low *probably* brings the highest risk at face value, but that said, the wake of the storm as the pressure rapidly rises and the winds turn more north westerly looks like holding some of the strongest winds overland.  I would think that eastern coastal places should escape any onshore wind influence, although the whiplash of the wind as the storm heads towards the North Sea looks a worry.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Coast]

Would they ever issue a red warning this far out? I guess it might happen if there was a likely very severe easterly expected (Jan 1987 etc.) but I've no idea and it must be an extremely rare occurrence. 

 

It's not unknown to issue an Amber 5 days out, but very rare. They also haven't really deviated from their view on intensity, locations and timing so if this does go red tomorrow, I'd say hats off to them and they're currently looking like they have it there or thereabouts

[Steve C]

I would think that eastern coastal places should escape any onshore wind influence, although the whiplash of the wind as the storm heads towards the North Sea looks a worry.

Yes, I agree with the last bit. I remember a storm sometime in the mid / late noughties, which created hurricane force gusts as it exited the coast - from memory Coningsby in Lincs had the highest winds and if the storm had been 100 or 150 miles ahead in its evolution, we could have had major problems. That's the thing with these situations isn't it? Factors need to come together.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We need to stop comparing it to previous storms till about Sunday afternoon when she is bearing down on us and we see the development if any at all..

 

We also need to take into account that this event is not yet set in stone and far from it yet and the low has not even developed yet...

[Tamara]

Hi Tamara,

 

you have to be fairly philosophical about these things, there's really nothing you can do but be sensible, hopefully most people will have contingency plans and avoid dangerous journeys but sadly you know that some people have no choice but to go out in all weathers.

 

If it does happen I'm sure there will be stories about someone being swept away by the waves or being blown off mountain top with others having to risk their lives to save them.

 

Lets hope it downgrades, after all I don't think the low even exist yet, does it?.

 

As for your position you do sound a bit exposed there, my position is a little more sheltered here on the North Kent Marshes with ground rising to my south and west, just stay safe, property damage although inconvenient can always be fixed in time.

 

As for me I will probably sleep through it if it comes in the night, being a man in my 40's, believe me I can can sleep almost anywhere and through anything.

 

Ian

I've just become a bit of a 'wuss' when it comes to severe weather of any kind. I blame it on my 92 yr old granny age

[Tamara]

We need to stop comparing it to previous storms till about Sunday afternoon when she is bearing down on us and we see the development if any at all..

 

We also need to take into account that this event is not yet set in stone and far from it yet and the low has not even developed yet...

This is true - but there is growing evidence that something significant could well occur. I talked of perspective yesterday, and always do in these situations usually - but that works both ways and means being realistic also if the signals are not good. If the system was going to downgrade then better signs of it should have been apparent by this morning. The trend appears to be going the other way with larger areas of the country at risk.

 

The post by Brickfielder on the dedicated storm thread illustrates what I mean in a way I would never be able to fully understand or express

Edited October 25, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Guest bjaykent]

I've just become a bit of a 'wuss' when it comes to severe weather of any kind. I blame it on my 92 yr old granny age

 

Never mind we are all weather geeks together here (some older than others ), I have never been in a position where I have feared the weather be it thunder wind or snow I have always just been fascinated by it from childhood, but I will treat it with respect if necessary.

[Coast]

We need to stop comparing it to previous storms till about Sunday afternoon when she is bearing down on us and we see the development if any at all..

 

We also need to take into account that this event is not yet set in stone and far from it yet and the low has not even developed yet...

 

I'm coming around to the idea now though that something low pressured and windy is on its way - maybe 65:35 for so far today. I'll still make the effort to clear the garden and take a few branches down on Sunday, they need doing anyway and why risk it?

[Steve C]

They've just said on BBC local news that they're expecting the worst winds since March 2008.

 

I think I can remember this. Were the worst of the winds around the middle of the day then?

[Coast]

They've just said on BBC local news that they're expecting the worst winds since March 2008.

 

I think I can remember this. Were the worst of the winds around the middle of the day then?

 

A wind speed of 82mph was recorded in Berry Head in Brixham, south Devon, as well as at the Mumbles in Swansea. In south-west England, 7,000 homes are without power, with 3,000 affected in Wales and 1,700 in Sussex.

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7287662.stm

 

 

[Steve C]

Crikey that was quick Robin!

[alexisj9]

They've just said on BBC local news that they're expecting the worst winds since March 2008.

 

I think I can remember this. Were the worst of the winds around the middle of the day then?

School home time, I remember seeing a sign fly past me and my daughter and hitting one of the people infront of us right in their face, they were walking towards us. Could have hit one of us in the back of the head, we got lucky.

[Coast]

Crikey that was quick Robin!

 

I'm already trying to find comparisons! (unfortunate)