South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

wind

look at the 28th

so agreement there then

 

rain

 

wet but not hugely so

 

so basically back tomorrow for more head scratching

Edited October 24, 2013 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

Could this storm develop a 'sting jet' as happened in 1987 ?

As I understand it that's what caused the most damaging winds back then !

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=16&mode=0&carte=0

 

gfs ensembles link above

 

as captain says some pretty nasty ones in there

 

 

hi mk

 

thats a problem that is possible

 

however very hard to impossible to predict

[alexisj9]

Me and my big mouth about the GFS ens

Ouch

[Snowangel-MK]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=16&mode=0&carte=0hi mkthats a problem that is possiblehowever very hard to impossible to predict

Thanks John - I thought it had the potential to happen but would be unpredictable and virtually a 'nowcast' situation .....it could be the difference between keeping or losing your roof though if you were unfortunate enough to be stung by the tail of it ! Edited October 25, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

here comes the batch of heavy rain for tonight and tomorrow morning-early afternoon

 

i am off to bed

 

goodnight all

[West Sussex Kate]

Night all.

Edited October 25, 2013 by West Sussex Kate

[alexisj9]

Just went into the will it be windy app, it says 71.2 for my area on monday. I hope that's not the sustained wind spead. I know it's just a guid and a lot can change. But that's just crazy.

 

Night everyone.

Edited October 25, 2013 by alexisj9

[Callie]

I haven't really been keeping much of an eye on where this storm is building from, other than knowing it is coming from the west. But this sentence from the Daily Mail is confusing me 'A storm is currently gathering strength in the Gulf of Mexico, before heading across the Atlantic towards the UK'. I am not entirely sure how such a storm could get to us as it would surely need to pass over Florida first, also it would need to move at a fair rate of knots to get here in 72 hours?? Or am I missing something, well it is nearly 2am in the morning...

Edited October 25, 2013 by Callie

[Sprites]

FoG forecast tonight, the wind is too strong i would say hmmm.

[Guest bjaykent]

Morning all, feeling like model fatigue is setting in already and no sign of winter yet!

 

Overnight runs still forecasting the storm that has yet to form, the only positive I can see at the moment is that GFS appear to have shifted the timing of the worst winds to between 2 and 5am. Gem having dropped the idea yesterday now have the storm back.

 

Sure we will know more tomorrow once the storm if it is a storm actually starts to develop in the Atlantic.

Edited October 25, 2013 by bjaykent

[Steve C]

Morning all

Fax chart for you know when.

Looks interesting for sure!

[Coast]

Morning all

Looks interesting for sure

 

Morning Steve, morning all.

 

Now I'm a little concerned and although nothing is set, the MetO 5 day has bumped up those potential gusts for all in the region:

 

 

More runs, more info and some decent satellite/radar pics would help, maybe this time tomorrow onwards we will have a better handle on this. On this mornings brief viewing, it's not good.

[Coast]

I haven't really been keeping much of an eye on where this storm is building from, other than knowing it is coming from the west. But this sentence from the Daily Mail is confusing me 'A storm is currently gathering strength in the Gulf of Mexico, before heading across the Atlantic towards the UK'. I am not entirely sure how such a storm could get to us as it would surely need to pass over Florida first, also it would need to move at a fair rate of knots to get here in 72 hours?? Or am I missing something, well it is nearly 2am in the morning...

 

I think they are referring to TD Lorenzo which is decaying and isn't what is coming to us. What it might bring to the party though is some warmth and moisture than may be added to the jet stream and provide additional 'ingredients' to bump the situation up a little.

Just went into the will it be windy app, it says 71.2 for my area on monday. I hope that's not the sustained wind spead.

 

Currently that looks to apply to gusts.

[Guest bjaykent]

Certainly a nasty looking low worth some advanced warnings

 

 

[legrandefromage]

will gather the apples before they get blown away and get the cider going

[Guest bjaykent]

Pretty dark, dismal and wet start to the day here this morning but very mild 14c, clocks go back this weekend, so at least the mornings will be lighter for a while.

 

Monday's 6am drive to Meopham station could be interesting at this rate!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

 

We seem to be getting a little consensus now, on the track of Sun/Mon low, after the overnight runs. Most models want to run this feature  NE through Wales/C.England exiting around the Yorks/Lincs coast. As bj mentions above, some disagreement on timing though.

GFS Op suggesting strongest winds will occur on the south coast of our region between midnight and 6 a.m Monday.

 

 

 

 

Still time for further adjustments, in the next day or so, re track and depth of this low.Certainly going to zip through, whatever happens and lets hope any damage is kept to a minimum and that there's no loss of life, due to this event.

 

Tom.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[hernebaylooby]

Morning everyone! Well its dark and wet out there I would say im gratefull its half term but I still have to take my littlest to playschool and the other two should be in a boxing ring with how many fights ive had to stop! Any hoo looks like we are still on for a bit of a bashing on monday

[hernebaylooby]

Also saw some pictures last night of the result of 87 down the side of the roof of my mum and dads house the bricks all blown out onto the neighbours garden. I was due to be born and my poor mum had started to get the odd contraction and had to sleep down stairs and try and wee on a bucket she said she thought I was going to arrive luckily I held off for another 2 weeks I was never one for a dramatic entrance

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh what a horrid day, grey and damp. At least today's interview is in Great Yarmouth though the industrial estate is a fair trek. 

Bring on the weekend, but not that blooming storm 

[Ste L]

They used a term on GMTV weather

 

"explosive cyclogenesis"  ( often associated with major winter storms and occurs when surface pressure falls by more than about 24 millibars per day. )

 

New term for me to learn  

[Tom Quintavalle]

Early morning rain clearing the extreme NE of our region now, should be mainly dry , probably until late tomorrow evening.

 

Rain looks to clear early hours of Sunday morning, during the rest of Sunday the strength of the wind will already be noticeable, before the strongest winds arrive, midnight onwards, with rain getting into our region during Sunday evening.

 

Tom.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[alexisj9]

Certainly a nasty looking low worth some advanced warnings

That one seems to be going through slightly slower, hope it doesn't slow down to much.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

 

More warnings?