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iapennell

LATE AUTUMN AND WINTER 2013/14: MILD, STORMY- SHORT COLD SNAPS LATER!

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Welcome and definately an intereasting read there. Brave of you to put your neck on the line. 20 years of atlantic observation myself and I have to say, not too far off the mark I recon. Just remember, the weather does not play by our forecast rules and is good at slamming our forecasts back in our faces.

Ric

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Welcome to the forum and a very sensible first post imo! Very clearly outlined and I very much agree with your thoughts. I think there will be very little cold weather before Christmas this year. Could get interesting on the wind and rain front though!

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Hello, its so lovely to be able to chat about my favourite subject with like-minded folk!

Indeed, my money is definitely on a milder, but stormier winter this year.  I have close to 30 years of records, and have tended to find that substantially warmer than usual summer half years (with the proviso that the warmth is shifted more June-September) tend NOT to be followed by frosty Octobers (though this rule does not always hold); IF September and October together are then mild and no air frost occurs until November that almost always means a mild winter.  Clear examples of such years with warm summers/autumns (and ensuing mild winters) are 1989, 2001, 2004, and 2006.    

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When you live in Alston, it's more difficult not to be interested in weather. Posted Image

 

Your post makes an interesting read. Let's see if you're right.

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Welcome Ian. I agree with your reasoning but we have to remember we are in uncharted waters now so what was one the norm may not be no more due to the effects of solar output. Having said that even during the MM and Dalton minimum mild wet winters were still possible.

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interesting post. I have a fieling u could be rite if oct 2011's anything to go by then a mild winter is not out of the question, although from what's been said by many posters that patern matching doesn't work in this field. Nice to have u on nw.

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Welcome to the forum, and a great way to begin, with a well reasoned read.

Interesting thoughts, I shall watch with interest.

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We have now gone right through to November without the air temperature dropping below +3C (and that is 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines).  This flags  up the likelihood of a mild, stormy winter.

 

Oh, and to correct one oversight above, sunspot maximum peaked this year (2013)- not 2011 and 2012 (when it was still actually increasing to its maximum).  Higher sunspot activity lends itself to solar storms that impact on the Earth's atmosphere (which itself is- on its sun-facing side- "moving east to west" at 1.6 million miles per day), thus the impact is to increase the "Westerly" momentum of the atmosphere.  This lends itself to stronger Ferrel Westerlies and south-Westerlies over higher latitudes; these block the passage of bitter Arctic or Russian air towards Britain whilst bringing warmer air from somewhat lower latitudes of the North Atlantic (this, combined with the warm North Atlantic and ice cover in the Canadian Arctic but not the European Arctic encouraging cyclogenisis in the right locations, was responsible for the mild, wet and totally frost-free October!).

 

The warm October will mean that the seas around and west of the UK will have been kept warm, which will encourage mild strong Westerlies to sweep in right through the winter.  The only precedents of a warm extended summer (May to September) then a mild, frost-free October that I have actually recorded were 1989 and 2004- both ensuing winters (1989/90 and 2004/05 respectively) were very mild and wet with little in the way of serious snow until February.  One can therefore infer that winter 2013/14 will be mild, stormy and wet;  but there will be short cold snaps later (probably about February) though the cold snaps won't last.  Don't count on temperatures getting more than a couple of degrees below 0C until then (unless you happen to live in a frost-hollow):  I will go to Ladbrokes and bet a grand on there being no snowcover (or snowfall) across lowland England on Christmas Day 2013!!    

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There was widespread snow across central and northern England on 18th November 2004 as a cold front swept south. Where I was in Sheffield we got about six inches. There was also a good fall of snow in January (can't remember the date) though it melted later in the day.

 

By the way, if you're really using 2004 for deciding to bet a grand on a green Christmas (Posted Image ) you should know that northern and western areas also had snow on Christmas Day, even in Liverpool (it's the last time snow fell and settled here on the big day, though we also had lying snow in 2009 and 2010).

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We have now gone right through to November without the air temperature dropping below +3C (and that is 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines).  This flags  up the likelihood of a mild, stormy winter.

 

Oh, and to correct one oversight above, sunspot maximum peaked this year (2013)- not 2011 and 2012 (when it was still actually increasing to its maximum).  Higher sunspot activity lends itself to solar storms that impact on the Earth's atmosphere (which itself is- on its sun-facing side- "moving east to west" at 1.6 million miles per day), thus the impact is to increase the "Westerly" momentum of the atmosphere.  This lends itself to stronger Ferrel Westerlies and south-Westerlies over higher latitudes; these block the passage of bitter Arctic or Russian air towards Britain whilst bringing warmer air from somewhat lower latitudes of the North Atlantic (this, combined with the warm North Atlantic and ice cover in the Canadian Arctic but not the European Arctic encouraging cyclogenisis in the right locations, was responsible for the mild, wet and totally frost-free October!).

 

The warm October will mean that the seas around and west of the UK will have been kept warm, which will encourage mild strong Westerlies to sweep in right through the winter.  The only precedents of a warm extended summer (May to September) then a mild, frost-free October that I have actually recorded were 1989 and 2004- both ensuing winters (1989/90 and 2004/05 respectively) were very mild and wet with little in the way of serious snow until February.  One can therefore infer that winter 2013/14 will be mild, stormy and wet;  but there will be short cold snaps later (probably about February) though the cold snaps won't last.  Don't count on temperatures getting more than a couple of degrees below 0C until then (unless you happen to live in a frost-hollow):  I will go to Ladbrokes and bet a grand on there being no snowcover (or snowfall) across lowland England on Christmas Day 2013!!    

 

OK... but September wasnt warm, there is a growing cold anomaly in the mid atlantic which is more and more looking like the -NAO tripole, and I have never seen any evidence of a lack of frost in October meaning anything at all come January. In fact there are some folk who see a warm October as a sign of a cold winter.

 

There does seem to be a warm winter bandwagon developing this year with people jumping onto it. Predicting the long wave pattern 3 months out is a mugs game I think... and more established signals are contradictory. I think we are still a month away from having any idea what winter proper will hold.

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OK... but September wasnt warm, there is a growing cold anomaly in the mid atlantic which is more and more looking like the -NAO tripole, and I have never seen any evidence of a lack of frost in October meaning anything at all come January. In fact there are some folk who see a warm October as a sign of a cold winter.

 

There does seem to be a warm winter bandwagon developing this year with people jumping onto it. Predicting the long wave pattern 3 months out is a mugs game I think... and more established signals are contradictory. I think we are still a month away from having any idea what winter proper will hold.

 

You are right of course, but severe winters tend to require a strong predisposition towards blocking well to the North of Britain (or to the north-west near Iceland):  The predictor for such blocking patterns would be a warm Arctic (Canadian side, this year the ice there is near normal), unusually cool conditions over the North Atlantic going into winter (sea surface temp anomalies along 45-50N in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic were +2C in September) and cold conditions with more snow/ice than usual over around Scandinavia [to encourage high pressure to form there]- the opposite is true this autumn and sea-ice in the Eurasian Arctic is near record lows for the season.  A colder North Atlantic would provide less moisture to fuel depressions moving across the North Atlantic, less ice and extreme cold over far NE Canada would weaken the Arctic-North Atlantic baroclinic gradient required to further fuel such storms- the reverse is true this year so that points to stronger storms and more consistent mild West/SW winds.

 

The other fly in the ointment affecting things is 2013 is at the peak of the 11.5 year Sunspot Cycle:  Though this peak is weaker than in 2001 and 1989-90 it is still enough to add an extra 0.5 to 1 Wm-2 to the Solar constant and cause a solar wind of sufficient strength to impact with the atmosphere (this has been observed to intensify the strength of the Polar Vortex) at times- ergo this means stronger Westerlies approaching Britain and less chance of bitter north/east winds.

 

I still assert that there are likely to be one or two cold snaps by February:  The Canadian Arctic and Greenland gaining a head-start with cooling this year will be very cold indeed by February- so it is entirely possible that the Greenland High will develop stronger in February this year.  It is certain to mean that following the passage of some of the deeper depressions to the north of Britain some of this very cold Arctic air will plunge south-east towards Britain with a ridge forming in the old air to the west- some snow and a couple of sharp frosts are likely.  But this cold wont be coming from the east, it will be Maritime Arctic air and Scotland is likely to bear the brunt of it:  Such cold snaps will also be of short duration- as the ridge in the North Atlantic collapses over  (likely) still warmer-than-usual seas and the very strong baroclinic atmospheric temperature gradient between bitterly frigid NE Canada/Greenland and the North Atlantic ushers in renewed cyclogenisis and more mild, strong Westerlies!

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We have now gone right through to November without the air temperature dropping below +3C (and that is 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines).  This flags  up the likelihood of a mild, stormy winter.

 

Oh, and to correct one oversight above, sunspot maximum peaked this year (2013)- not 2011 and 2012 (when it was still actually increasing to its maximum).  Higher sunspot activity lends itself to solar storms that impact on the Earth's atmosphere (which itself is- on its sun-facing side- "moving east to west" at 1.6 million miles per day), thus the impact is to increase the "Westerly" momentum of the atmosphere.  This lends itself to stronger Ferrel Westerlies and south-Westerlies over higher latitudes; these block the passage of bitter Arctic or Russian air towards Britain whilst bringing warmer air from somewhat lower latitudes of the North Atlantic (this, combined with the warm North Atlantic and ice cover in the Canadian Arctic but not the European Arctic encouraging cyclogenisis in the right locations, was responsible for the mild, wet and totally frost-free October!).

 

The warm October will mean that the seas around and west of the UK will have been kept warm, which will encourage mild strong Westerlies to sweep in right through the winter.  The only precedents of a warm extended summer (May to September) then a mild, frost-free October that I have actually recorded were 1989 and 2004- both ensuing winters (1989/90 and 2004/05 respectively) were very mild and wet with little in the way of serious snow until February.  One can therefore infer that winter 2013/14 will be mild, stormy and wet;  but there will be short cold snaps later (probably about February) though the cold snaps won't last.  Don't count on temperatures getting more than a couple of degrees below 0C until then (unless you happen to live in a frost-hollow):  I will go to Ladbrokes and bet a grand on there being no snowcover (or snowfall) across lowland England on Christmas Day 2013!!    

We broke the temperature record in 2011 for october with 29° so warm autumns don't precursor mild winters, in fact just the opposite i have found. During the last period of cold winters we have had rather warm Sept/Octobers. Until we see some significant evidence of sustained trending, one can only assume we are still in this cycle of blocking patterns. The models still suggest a blocking pattern forming. Maybe not as extensive as recent years but the trend is still cold or at worst average. From what i have seen in the models high pressure will again dominate the northern hemisphere with well above average temps for the acrtic, disturbing the vortex and leading to some stratosphere warming as previous years have shown. How strong it gets is usually down to timing with the tropical wave cycle!!!!

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11.30 pm on Tues, 3rd December 2013

 

It would seem that my predictions for the winter 2013/14 based on the warm summer in 2013, warm sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic along 50N in September and Arctic ice only approaching the seasonal norm near Canada in the autumn- for mild and stormy conditions would seem to be confirmed:  Check out the 16 day surface pressure charts up to the 19th December- high-pressure to the south and SE over central/southern Europe and deep depression tracks well north and NW of the country-

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm

 

There is a short cold snap for the next couple of days, though I anticipated there would be some short cold snaps from the north-west as the winter progressed- but nothing prolonged or severe.  So it is proving!

 

That said, the air temperature outside my home at 410 metres' elevation in the North Pennines is 7C; the seasonal norm here at night in early December is around 1C!!

 

Ian Pennell 

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11.30 pm on Tues, 3rd December 2013It would seem that my predictions for the winter 2013/14 based on the warm summer in 2013, warm sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic along 50N in September and Arctic ice only approaching the seasonal norm near Canada in the autumn- for mild and stormy conditions would seem to be confirmed:

I'm sorry but how can your winter prediction be seemed to be confirmed when we are only into the first week? Further to that, where has it been stormy recently during late autumn? Granted there will be a storm on Thursday but if you look at the charts currently, I don't see vigorous frequent gales buffeting the country. And even mild is not a cert not if we get anticyclonic inversion. Infact, November was below average, so it wasn't even a mild end to autumn at that.I don't like criticising but I feel I don't think you can make such a claim just yet. Edited by Weather-history
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More like a blink cold snap. My chances of snow now have become ziltch. the cold air actually lasts 6 hours.

From 510dam and -12c uppers for 4 days to 535dam and -7c uppers for 6 hours. Pathetic. Think this winter is going to be awful based on the latest cold spells or should I say cold failures.

I have now decided that I will not trust that a cold spell is coming until it is within 24 HOURS

Depressing because I was looking forward to a few snow showers and up until 18 hours ago that lookked good. Now I am stuck with wind and rain, something I have already experienced today. Yawwwn.

Get me out of this boring nondescript hell hole

Edited by smithyweather

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More like a blink cold snap. My chances of snow now have become ziltch. the cold air actually lasts 6 hours.From 510dam and -12c uppers for 4 days to 535dam and -7c uppers for 6 hours. Pathetic. Think this winter is going to be awful based on the latest cold spells or should I say cold failures.I have now decided that I will not trust that a cold spell is coming until it is within 24 HOURS

I won't believe a cold spell is coming until it has actually arrived. Too many  false hopes.

Edited by cheese

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11.30 pm on Tues, 3rd December 2013

 

It would seem that my predictions for the winter 2013/14 based on the warm summer in 2013, warm sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic along 50N in September and Arctic ice only approaching the seasonal norm near Canada in the autumn- for mild and stormy conditions would seem to be confirmed:  Check out the 16 day surface pressure charts up to the 19th December- high-pressure to the south and SE over central/southern Europe and deep depression tracks well north and NW of the country-

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm

 

There is a short cold snap for the next couple of days, though I anticipated there would be some short cold snaps from the north-west as the winter progressed- but nothing prolonged or severe.  So it is proving!

 

That said, the air temperature outside my home at 410 metres' elevation in the North Pennines is 7C; the seasonal norm here at night in early December is around 1C!!

 

Ian Pennell 

 

Come on you comic its the 4th December and you seriously believe your forecast is correct for WINTER after just 3 days, today being the 4th!

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I won't believe a cold spell is coming until it has actually arrived. Too many false hopes.

Well it was looking good within 3 days. In December where I live we usually get a few days of lying snow at least. So this is just atrocious, we have only seen snow once and we have had like six frosts.. Yawn.I've never seen a cold spell downgrade so much in my life. Yesterday 528 line was over galway now it is over glasgow. Think tbh the cold spell will downgrade right until it happens until we are having 7c and rain on friday. But yeah thats typical..This time we have all learn't not to get drawn in because the super duperty axores high will destory everythingI. Have to agree. I think our winters are going back to their mild norm after the cold in 2010, think that was just a blip and not a patteen change. The last two winters would back me up. Edited by smithyweather

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I think our winters are going back to their mild norm after the cold in 2010, think that was just a blip and not a patteen change. The last two winters would back me up.

Can't see how last winter can back you up? Both January and February were below average for the CET even by 1961-90 values and then came March!Granted March is a spring month but it was anything but a spring month!
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As far as I'm aware, NI didn't do as well last winter, but come March they joined in on the fun and they had some of the deepest totals in the UK, although I guess it depends on where you live - Belfast doesn't do as well for snow due to the sea influence.

 

I guess we'll wait and see. The current pattern does remind me of winters gone that had cold shunted into the Balkans and everywhere else, including Scandinavia, remaining milder. Sofia has gotten significant snow before both Stockholm and Helsinki which strikes me as absurd.

Edited by cheese

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Can't see how last winter can back you up? Both January and February were below average for the CET even by 1961-90 values and then came March!Granted March is a spring month but it was anything but a spring month!

He also forgot to mention the winter of 2009/10 which was the coldest for over a hundred years. Still why let the facts get in the way of a good old wind up.

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Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, December 4, 2013 - Have a guess
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, December 4, 2013 - Have a guess

A good old wind up? Excuse me how dare you. I have asbergers syndrome. Don'f you dare say that about me

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I've never seen a cold spell downgrade so much in my life. Yesterday 528 line was over galway now it is over glasgow. Think tbh the cold spell will downgrade right until it happens until we are having 7c and rain on friday. But yeah thats typical..

 

all 17 years, come on lad 17 years of weather is not even a blink in terms of climateology. You just have to learn to take the rough with the smooth. How much frost and snow did you get in your back yard in 2009-10, 10-11, 11-12, and 12-13 in any month. Show us the figures to back up your claim compared to the averages of the last 30 years.

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Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, December 4, 2013 - Quoted post removed
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, December 4, 2013 - Quoted post removed

A good old wind up? Excuse me how dare you. I have asbergers syndrome. Don'f you dare say that about me

What as that got to do with what you posted?

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