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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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This is an astonishing image to see on the CFS because it's off the 10 day averaged run. Would not be surprised to see this on an individual run, but these massive anomalies on the 10 day are amazing. 

 

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18z GFS rips the worst damaging winds of the southern section of the secondary low through Brittany and Channel Isles. Which model to follow? It's pretty clear now that this will be a major event for the south coast.

 

Edit: what seems to set this feature off is a limb of warm plume south of Nova Scotia (south of Sable) acting as a late subtropical gyre.

Edited by kumquat
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This is the latest news on the storm, it looks a real beast and has a big wrap around of heavy rain, gusts of 60-80 mph. The primary reason for the intensity of this storm is the sheer power of the jet stream blasting across the atlantic to the south of the uk at 200 mph..get ready to batten down the hatches and stay safe everyone.Posted Image

Looks like the south gets the strongest winds, but much of Yorkshire gets the heaviest rain from that image Frosty? Edited by Paul_1978
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Currently wind wise , the Southern coast and the English Channel looks like getting the Brunt, I would hope they at least make sure there is no boats or ferry's in the area. But as we all know the storm has not even formed yet, it is due to form according to computer models tomorrow evening and from then on I would use the HIgh res Models such as the NAE and the NMM . Main concern wind wise right now for me would be Cornwall, Devon and Dorset due to the large amount of open countryside in that area , It is also the area that have the Highest unseasonable temps . Fallen trees on them country roads are likely to be an issue going by current models, The M5 ends at Exeter , after that it is small communities and villages that are likely to be also in the strongest part of the Storm.... 

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from the severe storm area

 

The Fax charts maintain much the same track of the last 24 hours although the latest 12z Monday position is about 4mb higher and 4 degrees further east than the previous one. Again UK Met are consistent with their most likely track. Nothing showing in the models to alter that view either.

Tomorrow will see the most likely wind speeds showing with a very strong probability of them occurring so a red warning is quite probable from them I would think although Jo may be able to give more information on that.

It is going to be the worst storm over southern districts for some years that does now seem certain. Wind being the major issue although temporary surface flooding may also occur on the nothern side of the low, the severe winds on its southern side.

 

Beyond that there remains nothing in the predicted upper air pattern (6-15 days ahead, possibly longer)  to suggest any major change in wavelength thus the disturbed spell will continue. Detail of course coming from the synoptic models nearer the time.

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Tomorrow will see the most likely wind speeds showing with a very strong probability of them occurring so a red warning is quite probable from them I would think although Jo may be able to give more information on that.

 

The Met do like to give us 24 hours notice of Red Warning events - allows emergency planners to move equipment, sort out staffing and in my case, get some of our pumping equipment serviced and temporary generators installed.  They might well issue a red warning at or before the 10am update tomorrow morning, what with it being a weekend.

 

And this was supposed to be my week off.  *sigh*.

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Hi there guys...

 

I am reading comments and I am thinking... looks like the armageddon is been predicted!

 

what is it exactly what you can see that will be so extreme and special?

I though that anything over +72hr is no enough accurate to make any predictions (FI)

 

Sorry if you may cover your eyes when reading this XD Im a bit amateur on this :( although I love to learn :):)

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Noticed the GFS has come in line with UKMO. However it's removed the re-run from FI. Dunno if it's my eyes but after this weekend lows look slightly further north and hgh pressure close to the south so a quieter spell maybe in the offering for southern areas.

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Looks like the south gets the strongest winds, but much of Yorkshire gets the heaviest rain from that image Frosty?

 

The Gfs 00z op run brings very severe weather northwards across england and wales during monday with a spell of torrential rain and severe gale to storm force s'ly winds which then veer to a westerly severe gale which funnels across the pennines so that northeast england then  gets blasted by extremely strong winds from the south and then the west. The rain spreads right up into eastern scotland  on this run but not the same wind problems as further south but in answer to your question paul, the whole of england and wales is at high risk of gusts of 80 mph + bringing power lines and trees down as the storm tracks northeastwards across the southern half of the uk..a very severe 12-18 hours from monday 00hrs to monday 1800hrs. Take care all, this is going to be very severe indeed.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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There's not as much rain as I'd have thought for the Midlands with this storm?

 

We've already had some pretty bad flooding the past week with all the rain, so a big rain event would be terrible, especially with it bringing all the leaves down and them blocking the drains?

 

Anymore news on the rain front?

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There's not as much rain as I'd have thought for the Midlands with this storm?

 

We've already had some pretty bad flooding the past week with all the rain, so a big rain event would be terrible, especially with it bringing all the leaves down and them blocking the drains?

 

Anymore news on the rain front?

 

Rainfall totals look like they'll be worst in the west on Monday

 

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Latest from GIbby

 

All models show an unsettled and breezy weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as the weekend evolves. A Brisk showery SW flow over Western and Northern Britain will weaken overnight as winds decrease. A window of drier weather tomorrow will be superseded by a trough of low pressure crossing ESE across the UK with a band of heavy rain and squally winds crossing the UK tomorrow afternoon and night. Following that a very strong WSW showery flow will affect the UK through Sunday with gales in the North and West and showers heavy with hail and thunder in places.

 

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

 

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting SW and all of Southern England with the strongest gusts near the South and Bristol Channel coasts worst of all.

 

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 975mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 960mbs with the strongest winds here over all of Southern England and South Wales with gusts to 80mph with exposure. Some structural damage would be likely.

 

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 980mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 970mbs as it leaves the East Anglian coast. Southernmost  Britain bordering the English Channel coasts would experience the strongest winds with storm force gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

 

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales at 975mbs on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon at sub 970mbs with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales for a time through the day.

 

Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This holds for a day or two across Southern Britain while the North and West quickly become influenced by a strong SW flow with rain at times. Things would turn milder again for many. Thereafter strong winds and rain are a regular feature shown as deep Low pressures continue to cross just to the North of the UK with bands of rain alternating with squally showers in temperatures turning rather chillier with time. Late in the run High pressure replaces Low pressure from off the Atlantic with frost and persistent fog becoming the problem by the end of the run.

 

UKMO shows pressure relatively High over the South from midweek but with a mild, moist and quite strong Westerly flow thick cloud and rain and drizzle is likely with the North seeing some heavier rain at times.

 

GEM has a quieter spell midweek with some dry weather in the South. However as the run progresses it quickly become very unsettled again with deep low pressure areas crossing East over or to the North of the UK with strong Westerly winds bringing bands of rain alternating with squally showers across all areas. As winds turn more to the NW late in the run it would turn rather colder later.

 

NAVGEM shows pressure building to the South of the UK warding off the worst of Low pressure further North to principally continue to affect the North of the UK. This would have the affect of restricting the amounts of rain reaching the South for a time midweek before all areas return to windy and unsettled weather late in the run as Low pressure digs down deeper into Britain next weekend.

 

ECM this morning shows a continued changeable and sometimes windy theme as winds remain Westerly. Pressure does build midweek across the South with a calmer spell here before all areas become prone to an active Atlantic Low pressure area up to the North of the UK with troughs bringing bands of rain and showers for all in a strong to gale force Westerly flow. The end of the run shows changeable weather continuing with Low pressure remaining close by and it may become somewhat colder by Day 10.

 

The GFS Ensembles do maintain an unsettled and changeable picture with rain at times and winds blowing strongly at times too. Temperatures are likely to remain quite close to average overall but there is a lot of spread between the members later, both warm and cold of the average as successive periods of alternating warm maritime and colder air masses cross the UK.

 

The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the reliable future. It will fluctuate North and South of this general position at times in response to deep Low pressure areas approaching and moving away, most of which cross East over or to the North of the UK.

 

In Summary the storm system on Monday is the main talking point and there is some firming up on the path of the storm. It looks like it will cross from Pembrokeshire across Wales and the Midlands then out into the North sea near the Humber. It depth looks like being between 965mbs to 980mbs making it a powerful storm on Southern Britain standards so some structural damage is likely along with traffic chaos on Monday morning. Once passed the weather quickly calms to a more standard Autumn pattern of Low pressure to the North and higher pressure to the South giving these areas at least a window of drier weather in the middle of next week. In the longer term conditions look like remaining or becoming changeable for all with rain and wind at times and temperatures never far from average but the North may see some colder incursions later and these may extend a little further South at times.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

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the 06z position from Exeter is shown on the link below as 41N 52W centre 1009mb, about where you would expect it given the prediction 3 days ago of where we could start looking for it at 12z today. This was 451N 50W and a bit below 1012mb so the start is about spot on.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

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the 06z position from Exeter is shown on the link below as 41N 52W centre 1009mb, about where you would expect it given the prediction 3 days ago of where we could start looking for it at 12z today. This was 451N 50W and a bit below 1012mb so the start is about spot on.http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

If the fax at t60 is correct, then the NE would make as many headlines as anywhere else in the country IMO.
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The Gfs 06z places a big target on the uk for another storm next weekend on a different track which also puts northern uk in the firing line. Overall the 6z is a very unsettled run with near average temps, sometimes a little above and below and generally it will feel cold compared to all the recent extreme warmth, so at least it should be feeling like it should on the cusp of november, later next week could become more settled for a few days towards the southeast as high pressure builds across the near continent but it only looks like temporary respite before we are again thrust into the wild atlantic slip stream, the north and west of the uk, especially the northwestern half of the uk are likely to remain unsettled and windy at times throughout the whole run.

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The 6z gives us the first relatively cold shot of the autumn, nice to see these type of charts appearing even though they are deep FI.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Looks like the vortex looks to split slightly, with part just west of Greenland? 

 

Ideal for High Pressure to form through the Middle , just to the West of the BI ... Haven't seen the PV that strong in that area for Months now , so we also have to be wary that it also doesn't setup shop for the Winter over GL which would reduce chances of anything Cold for early Winter. 

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Ideal for High Pressure to form through the Middle , just to the West of the BI ... Haven't seen the PV that strong in that area for Months now , so we also have to be wary that it also doesn't setup shop for the Winter over GL which would reduce chances of anything Cold for early Winter. 

I feel the heights would be more likely to our North east with the potential for low pressure to feed into the Mediterranean. Not without back up with the JMA monthly forecast going for heights close to the UK and to the north east introducing drier and cooler weather with an easterly flow during the middle part of November. Still a very long way off though.

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