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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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Taking a look at the GFS 0Z in H.R on Meteociel. Following charts are Rainfall, Wind Gusts and Pressure.

post-15543-0-52456900-1382680132_thumb.g post-15543-0-00878000-1382680140_thumb.g post-15543-0-93271100-1382680145_thumb.g

 

post-15543-0-44840200-1382680220_thumb.g post-15543-0-73610500-1382680246_thumb.g post-15543-0-04911700-1382680253_thumb.g

 

post-15543-0-55138400-1382680351_thumb.g post-15543-0-93116500-1382680358_thumb.g post-15543-0-29086900-1382680365_thumb.g

 

The images are from 11pm,2am and 5am, on this run it seems that the worst of the weather will push in through these times, with a northward advancement since the 12z last night. 

 

 

 

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GFS beginning the normal downgrade progress this morning. Low much less developed and further south. The far south still gets a blow but much less than before.

 

There are now met office amber warnings for sun night & monday for the southern half of england and wales, gusts of 60-80 mph and a spell of heavy rain..that's no downgrade, whatever the gfs shows, I believe the met office, not the gfs.Posted Image

Edited by Frosty.
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There are now met office amber warnings for sun night & monday for the southern half of england and wales, gusts of 60-80 mph and a spell of heavy rain..that's no downgrade, whatever the gfs shows, I believe the met office, not the gfs.Posted Image

The eye of the storm could be over Normandy. We will still be hit pretty bad down the southern half of england.

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There are now met office amber warnings for sun night & monday for the southern half of england and wales, gusts of 60-80 mph and a spell of heavy rain..that's no downgrade, whatever the gfs shows, I believe the met office, not the gfs.Posted Image

You say that now but only because it isn't showing what you want frosty.

Baring in mind the bbc breakfast is showing the graphics from the 0z , come the 06z you find they change there forecasts accordingly. There as much in the dark as we are and I have witnessed them time and time again change there forecasts like the clappers to match what the latest NAE is showing , I no they have there own models but Iv witnessed this every winter for the last 10 years .

So while your right in saying you have more faith in the met office I wouldn't take too much notice in there warnings until 24hrs before the event. Things normally get downgraded and i personally think it will this time.

Gales yes certainly , severe gales maybe . But the storm of the century absolutely not , and unfortunately a lot of the hype regarding the storm has been found on hear . As a kid I remember every year we used to get a very stormy spell , so having gales of 60mph doesn't really do it for me, yes it's strong winds , but not Dangerous unless on a mountain . Drive sensibly , and be careful . That's the only message that needs to go out as far as I'm concerned.

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There are now met office amber warnings for sun night & monday for the southern half of england and wales, gusts of 60-80 mph and a spell of heavy rain..that's no downgrade, whatever the gfs shows, I believe the met office, not the gfs.Posted Image

His comment was more about what the GFS was showing rather than his belief as to whether he felt it was correct or not I think. As this is still some time away much could change. Position, strength etc but it is, IMO, correct that the met are making the public aware of the possibility, they have time to increase or decrease warnings as we get nearer to the time.
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His comment was more about what the GFS was showing rather than his belief as to whether he felt it was correct or not I think. As this is still some time away much could change. Position, strength etc but it is, IMO, correct that the met are making the public aware of the possibility, they have time to increase or decrease warnings as we get nearer to the time.

all I know is it was yellow and now amber which is an upgrade in the alert, we know how the gfs jumps around from run to run.

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Indeed the storm moves through quickly according to models but that is not anything to pick up on re it happening or not as the 1987 storm was an overnighter too.  Breezy when I went to bed and woke up to a breeze Posted Image .  Could be the same for many again!!

 

So UKMOECM, GEM still want it and GFS doesn't on the 00z.

 

SSIB, what era are you talking about about every year getting very stormy spell and what is stormy? I agree if it becomes just a gale it ain't notable as coastal gales are commonplace .  Its track and potential strength are currently of note but lots can change here.

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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GFS beginning the normal downgrade progress this morning. Low much less developed and further south. The far south still gets a blow but much less than before.

UKMO may still have it tracking across the country but the time period doesn't show this and the low jumps quite a distance between the time slots.

 

see my post in the storm area thread where I discuss this

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Latest from Gibby

 

All models show a major storm system affecting parts of England and Wales as we move out of the weekend and into the start of next week. In the short term there will be plenty of rain and showers scattered about the UK in fresh to strong West or SW winds. the rain could be heavy in places as a cocktail of troughs cross the UK in the strong breeze. It will feel rather colder than of late. The main problems begin on Sunday evening as a vicious storm system which develops explosively down to the SW of the UK on Sunday whistles across Wales on its way to the North Sea and Northern Europe. Wind gusts of 70-80mls per hour could occur across Southern England for a time in the first hours of Monday morning. through the day the storms transfer east out into the North sea and things calm down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly and a window of dry and quiet weather is shown to develop for all for a time around midweek as a ridge of High pressure crosses East.

 

GFS then turns things rather unsettled again as Low pressure, this time well to the NW brings a return to rain and strong winds at times to all but more concentrated towards the NW. This pattern continues throughout the rest of the run with all areas seeing some rain though temperatures will never be far from average values for late October and early November.

 

UKMO shows a ridge having crossed the UK on Wednesday with a short drier spell with light winds before low pressure moves in towards the NW again on Thursday with increasing winds, cloud and rain rolling in off the Atlantic towards the North and West in particular.

 

GEM today shows an unsettled and changeable pattern beyond the midweek quieter period with a return to brisk and sometimes strong West or SW winds with rain at times and temperatures close to average.

 

NAVGEM too shows changeable conditions but with High pressure closer to the South at times the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rains will be felt across Northern and Western areas with some brighter and drier periods across the South. Temperatures will be close to or maybe a fraction above average at times.

 

ECM is locked well into a changeable pattern from the midweek next week with spells of rain blowing through on a fresh to strong Westerly breeze. there will inevitably be some drier and brighter periods especially in the South at first and between bands of rain sunshine and showers are possible. Temperatures will be close to average for the time of year.

 

The GFS Ensembles look less wet in the South this morning with a trend towards milder weather with above average uppers over us from the exit of the early week storm. In the north the sine wave pattern of a mild day, then a cooler one is noted with very changeable conditions in terms of rain and wind amounts too look likely.

 

The Jet Stream shows a fairly incessant pattern of the flow undulating in a SW to NE direction across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure will be present over Europe keeping much of the UK on the mild side of the jet flow with any cold air held well north of the Jet flow and the UK over the period.

 

In Summary the weather will remain unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times for all. The storm system of Sunday night and Monday morning will be the most severe weather of the period with the UK reverting to a much more average period thereafter with the rain and showers being heaviest and most prolonged to the North and West of Britain along with the strong winds. temperatures will be always close to average and probably above at times, especially in the South.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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Moving away from the potential storm on Monday and looking further ahead into November. Current modelling suggests some sort of heights building to our South/South West later next week, moving east into Europe; 

 

yes the anomaly charts continue to show a more or less westerly 500mb flow over the Atlantic into the broad trough west of the UK and staying very unsettled from the way that looks. So expect further Atlantic systems some fairly deep ones crossing the UK at times into early November.

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FWIW:

 

 

  MattHugo81
Latest EC32 maintains an unsettled +NAO pattern throughout the bulk of November with little evidence of a pattern change #unsettled
25/10/2013 09:16

 

Certainly the latest GFS runs have only temporary ridges (next 15 days) that just improve the south for the short term.

These patterns once entrenched tend to linger for a while, just based on recent history, nothing scientific.

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The update from the EC32 is once again unpleasant viewing for those wanting cold conditions or those seeking settled weather as we advance into November and beyond. It is dominated by the Atlantic, with a conveyor belt of low pressure systems taking aim at the UK.

Posted Image

with the ensembles indicating a +NAO as we move into November, it seems likely that unsettled weather will rule the roost.

Posted Image

here is how the ecm monthly/control sees accumulated rainfall out to t768 (25th Nov)..

Edited by draztik
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The update from the EC32 is once again unpleasant viewing for those wanting cold conditions or those seeking settled weather as we advance into November and beyond. It is dominated by the Atlantic, with a conveyor belt of low pressure systems taking aim at the UK.

Posted Image

with the ensembles indicating a +NAO as we move into November, it seems likely that unsettled weather will rule the roost.

 

 

Yep +NAO looking likely now for November

 

Posted Image

 

We could be looking at one of the mildest Autumns in a long time this year

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I know it doesn't work like this but I would rather we get our 2 month stint of Atlantic dominated weather now rather than commencing in December. Hopefully the pattern can run itself out by late November.

Edited by Matty M
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JMA has it bang on top of us during daylight hours on Monday rather than overnight Sunday/Monday. 

 

Posted Image

just realized that is yesterdays run Posted Image

Edited by karlos1983
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Yep +NAO looking likely now for November

 

Posted Image

 

We could be looking at one of the mildest Autumns in a long time this year

Thank god it will soon be winter Posted Image

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I know it doesn't work like this but I would rather we get our 2 month stint of Atlantic dominated weather now rather than commencing in December. Hopefully the pattern can run itself out by late November.

 

The only problem is when the Atlantic arrives it can take months to shift I personally think December will be mild seeing a continuation of Autumn

Edited by Summer Sun
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