Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Newberryone]

FWIW:

 

 

  MattHugo81

Latest EC32 maintains an unsettled +NAO pattern throughout the bulk of November with little evidence of a pattern change #unsettled

25/10/2013 09:16

 

Certainly the latest GFS runs have only temporary ridges (next 15 days) that just improve the south for the short term.

These patterns once entrenched tend to linger for a while, just based on recent history, nothing scientific.

For those among us who enjoy active weather thank goodness we're not being subjected to constant ridging from the Azores as was happening during the 2011/12 winter season.

At least the general prospects as we head towards Winter this time appear interesting to say the least.  

[Frosty.]

For those among us who enjoy active weather thank goodness we're not being subjected to constant ridging from the Azores as was happening during the 2011/12 winter season.

At least the general prospects as we head towards Winter this time appear interesting to say the least.  azore 2011.PNG

Totally agree, this is a much more interesting pattern than benign mild nothingness, as time goes on I believe the jet will tilt more towards nw / se with a much better angle of attack for atlantic depressions to draw progressively colder shots as we go further into november, our patience for cold will be rewarded at some point next month, and then we have 12 weeks of winter to relish.

[Ian Brown]

Totally agree, this is a much more interesting pattern than benign mild nothingness, as time goes on I believe the jet will tilt more towards nw / se with a much better angle of attack for atlantic depressions to draw progressively colder shots as we go further into november, our patience for cold will be rewarded at some point next month, and then we have 12 weeks of winter to relish.

 

 

Well we are certainly in a period of uber zonality, with the classic zonal bowl in place. Fortunately its only October 25 but it is hard to see a way out of this for at least 3 weeks.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z has this low at 980mb

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well we are certainly in a period of uber zonality, with the classic zonal bowl in place. Fortunately its only October 25 but it is hard to see a way out of this for at least 3 weeks.

I find it amusing that any one at all can write off 3 wks of weather , or is it 5 or 6 you mean when you say "at least" ? We know how quickly things can change and things can die down as quickly as they get going . We can try and look at analogs all we like , but things change very quickly . But of course it is autumn and we should expect zonal conditions at this time ,

[karlos1983]

This would give a chilly breeze, nice heights over Greenland also..

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows severe weather developing across the far south of the uk from sunday evening through to monday afternoon with a brief lull, relatively speaking during monday morning before winds veer to gale or severe gale force westerly, before then it's a severe gale to storm force s'ly, I really fear for places like kent and also southern coastal counties on this run as they get battered for longest but the wind is not the only hazard because a band of torrential rain also pushes north through sunday night and continues to push northwards during monday. For the rest of the uk it's normal unsettled weather in comparison but still with strong gusts at times.

[draztik]

Conversely, the ecm 0z has the higher rainfall totals further north on Monday, with both NI and Scotland affected....

t78 / 6z monday

t84 / 12z monday

Edited October 25, 2013 by draztik

[ukpaul]

I think we need to realise that many are posting about their own backyard, late yesterday I saw that things had become potentially less stormy for around here but the GFS I just checked on is much more worrying, sadly, partly because the timing has now expanded and that earlier and later have more consistently  strong winds but also because the gust speed overland through the far south east has increased. I think we also need to check out what might happen to the channel islands, I'm sure there are forum members from there and they'll definitely have to batten down the hatches.

Edited October 25, 2013 by ukpaul

[Frosty.]

A nice end to the Gfs 06z op run..i.e. cold & unsettled with much more to come beyond then. The jet stream is blasting across the atlantic at around 200mph at higher levels and this is the primary reason for the rapid intensification of the big storm piling in from the southwest by sunday night and throughout monday, sunday is literally the calm before the storm, it's going to cause a lot of problems and leave a trail of significant damage in it's wake but later next week, high pressure builds across the southeast on this run with a more settled spell for at least a few days, possibly 3 days with overnight fog and a touch of frost but it continues unsettled and windy at times across the northwestern half of the uk throughout, with very brief colder incursions (pockets of colder air) further north. The further outlook shows the fine weather across the southeastern half of the uk being blown away by very unsettled weather with occasional buckling of the jet as lows swing up from the southwest approaches, so a disturbed outlook, especially for the north and west and turning colder as we go deeper into november with wintry ppn across northern hills as time goes on and more in the way of frost.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Moving away from the potential storm on Monday and looking further ahead into November. Current modelling suggests some sort of heights building to our South/South West later next week, moving east into Europe;

image.jpg

Before continuing east towards Russia/Far East territory;

image.jpgimage.jpg

This would suggest a milder air source later next week after a brief cooler period associated with Mondays low. Temperatures likely to return to slightly above average values by the end of next week as heights build over Europe. Further out into week 2 and as heights continue east, shown below by 2 ensemble suites for East Europe territory;

image.jpgimage.jpg

This may allow lower heights to dig further south towards the UK/Europe, tilting the Jet Stream on a more NW/SE axis allowing a cooler pm/rPm flow over the UK at times, as shown by the EC Det FI;

image.jpg

With the latest MJO forecast settling around phase 1 territory;

image.jpgimage.jpg

This would also support the idea of troughing digging south over the UK around the week 2 timeframe;

image.jpg

A brief window mid next week for southern England to see something less unsettled as heights move west-east close to southernmost counties, otherwise the pattern looks more unsettled than settled to me still for the foreseeable future. Mostly mild rather than cold too (with the possible exception of Tues/Weds next week briefly). Something cooler/more average possible in week 2 maybe.

 

I came on to suggest the first signs of a more amplified pattern, possibly developing toward the second week of November, may just be being hinted at in the outer reaches of the output.

Whether this just provides a cooler zonal type flow before reverting to something flatter or produces a mid Atlantic ridge with the potential to derail the zonal train in the second half of November who knows?

 

Of course you said all that and more much better but hey I'm here now...

Edited October 25, 2013 by Mucka

[snow freak]

I for one, am glad we are currently in a +NAO and unsettled mild period.  At least we will hopefully get this all out of the way now so by the time winter really settles in we will have moved out of this mild unsettled period and the rest of winter will be much colder and snowier.  Usually early cold in the winter is followed by the remainder of the winter being mild most years, so if we start off mild then hopefully the opposite could happen and we get the cold when its likely to be most productive in the depths of winter.

[karlos1983]

stronger, but same position

[Captain Shortwave]

stronger, but same position

Oh dear, damn you GFS and being wrong and giving false hope. Well maybe I can flog official storm 2013 roof tiles on ebay 

Yes SS, it was reply number 666, you quoted me before I managed to edit my post.

Note to self, learn to type quicker 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

GFS has the low peaking at 970mb early afternoon on Monday

 

 

Before it quickly pulls away

 

 

Wet for many

 

How apt for post number 666 of this thread 

 

I make his post 667 and yours 668?

[Summer Sun]

This storm looks nasty and short lived with the south still looking like getting the worst of the winds by Tuesday its the clam after the storm

 

13:00 Monday

 

 

13:00 Tuesday

 

 

19:00 Tuesday

 

 

01:00 Wednesday

 

 

07:00 Wednesday

 

 

So once this storm wizzes through on Monday we should see high pressure building up from southern Europe giving us some settled weather after what could be the stormiest day in the south for decades

Edited October 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[AWD]

I wouldn't say it's calm as such on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Obviously nothing like what could happen Monday, but both Tuesday & Wednesday look decidedly breezy in a westerly wind too.

With the possible winds on Monday weakening tree structures and weak man made structures, the strong breeze on Tuesday might not help problems either.

Worth noting, Sunday afternoon and evening also look moderately windy for some areas too.

Edited October 25, 2013 by AWD

[Frosty.]

This is the latest news on the storm, it looks a real beast and has a big wrap around of heavy rain, gusts of 60-80 mph. The primary reason for the intensity of this storm is the sheer power of the jet stream blasting across the atlantic to the south of the uk at 200 mph..get ready to batten down the hatches and stay safe everyone.

[Summer Sun]

October ends with the next low crossing north of Scotland this time with high pressure in the right place to keep the worst of it away from the UK

 

[Gaz1985]

GFS continuing to signal the worst of the winds in the English channel well away from populated areas, looks like East Kent may well have the strongest of the winds inland and possibly Isle of Wight/Channel islands, for the rest of south just very windy but that's all, nothing we haven't seen before though.

 

[The PIT]

Looks like an action packed Monday coming up for southern areas. Windiest day for us looks like Sunday although nothing special there. Still time for everything to track further northward. Fingers crossed. Otherwise the unsettled mostly mild theme looks set to continue although cooler than of late

[Summer Sun]

GFS continuing to signal the worst of the winds in the English channel well away from populated areas, looks like East Kent may well have the strongest of the winds inland and possibly Isle of Wight/Channel islands, for the rest of south just very windy but that's all, nothing we haven't seen before though.

 

 

Looks like this storm will be some where around the one in 2007

[Summer Sun]

UKMO also showing a more settled end to October in the south with any low pressure systems back in there usual place tracking north of Scotland 

 

[Chris K]

This is the latest news on the storm, it looks a real beast and has a big wrap around of heavy rain, gusts of 60-80 mph. The primary reason for the intensity of this storm is the sheer power of the jet stream blasting across the atlantic to the south of the uk at 200 mph..get ready to batten down the hatches and stay safe everyone.

 

On that chart you show there, the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary look like getting absolutely hammered from the trailing NW'erly as that Low moves away...ouch.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Chris K

[Ali1977]

Is that a Scandy high starting to form and move North West at the end of the GFS run?  Novice!!!