Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Recommended Posts

I would have to look back to check. Early thoughts probably around the end of October.

Fine. But at the moment, I assume things are looking better than last year? We have weak El Nino, east QBO, low sunspot activity?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just some FI GFS stuff going around... :D

10mb.png 10mbt.png 10mboz.png

 

The zonal mean zonal winds in comparison with the same date yesterday (from ECMWF reanalysis).

umean.png u-in-netcdf-atls05-20140.png

 

Regards

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just some FI GFS stuff going around... :D

10mb.png 10mbt.png 10mboz.png

 

The zonal mean zonal winds in comparison with the same date yesterday (from ECMWF reanalysis).

umean.png u-in-netcdf-atls05-20140.png

 

Regards

What are they telling us, Recretos? I cannot read charts. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are they telling us, Recretos? I cannot read charts. Thanks.

If i could just answer FB.

The orange colours are weak westerly winds in the lower Stratosphere which indicate a slow moving pattern  near the surface with blocking high pressure,(We can those oranges fading to white at near ground level indicating a lack of flow)

If you look at the 500hPa charts you can see a lot of high pressure around mid-latitudes in the Atlantic sector which ties in with this.

 

The Stratospheric vortex is only just starting to cool as the Autumnal equinox approaches and the sun disappears over the pole.

Any changes to the shape and development of the polar vortex will start being monitored around late October as Chiono said earlier.

Until then there's not much to be gained by any discussion at this early stage really.

 

Have a read of Chiono's first post in the thread,if you havent already,link

 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/#entry2806808

 

which explains very nicely all the background to how the Stratosphere works and it's effects on our Winter weather patterns.

 

I hope that helps. :)  

Edited by phil nw.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But surely wave breaking events could warm the stratosphere despite the lack of a polar vortex?

 

But the wave breaking is propagated in the atmospheric flow though - such as in the vortex.

 

If i could just answer FB.

The orange colours are negative (easterly)winds in the lower Stratosphere which indicate blocking high pressure,putting it simply.

If you look at the 500hPa charts you can see a lot of high pressure around mid-latitudes in the Atlantic sector which ties in with this.

 

The Stratospheric vortex is only just starting to cool as the Autumnal equinox approaches and the sun disappears over the pole.

Any changes to the shape and development of the polar vortex will start being monitored around late October as Chiono said earlier.

Until then there's not much to be gained by any discussion at this early stage really.

 

 

The orange colours in the lower two charts are westerly winds - the weak early stratospheric vortex can be seen towards the top right, and the tropospheric subtropical jet in bottom centre.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But the wave breaking is propagated in the atmospheric flow though - such as in the vortex.

 

 

The orange colours in the lower two charts are westerly winds - the weak early stratospheric vortex can be seen towards the top right, and the tropospheric subtropical jet in bottom centre.

Yup my mistake Interitus cheers. :)

Have amended my post above so that it should make more sense.

I should have realised, i post enough of those things through Winter!

Edited by phil nw.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

increased SO2 caused by the Icelandic volcano last month could increase ozone in these places. Thus, the stratosphere would have more ease to warm. Here is the current ozone and the difference from last year is eloquent on Iceland / Greenland

 

September 20, 2013:

 

Nag2Dn.gif

 

september 20, 2014:

 

vLn1Gs.gif

 

Regarding QBO, it is now in the full negative 5 to 50 included hpa:

 

MzP9P6.gif

 

 

It is certain that winter 2014/2015 should be significantly different from 2013/2014 for the simple reason that the current settings (QBO, ENSO, Stt etc) are in total contrast with 2013 and conducive to wave surges waves into the stratosphere regular way. 

 

Stay tuned...

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

increased SO2 caused by the Icelandic volcano last month could increase ozone in these places. Thus, the stratosphere would have more ease to warm. Here is the current ozone and the difference from last year is eloquent on Iceland / Greenland

 

September 20, 2013:

 

Nag2Dn.gif

 

september 20, 2014:

 

vLn1Gs.gif

 

Regarding QBO, it is now in the full negative 5 to 50 included hpa:

 

MzP9P6.gif

 

 

It is certain that winter 2014/2015 should be significantly different from 2013/2014 for the simple reason that the current settings (QBO, ENSO, Stt etc) are in total contrast with 2013 and conducive to wave surges waves into the stratosphere regular way. 

 

Stay tuned...

I've been wondering why the cfs keeps churning out cold northern blocking runs since August!!!I know that the cfs is not the best tool to use but it must be onto something when it keeps churning out cold runs especially for the end of november and December!
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been wondering why the cfs keeps churning out cold northern blocking runs since August!!!I know that the cfs is not the best tool to use but it must be onto something when it keeps churning out cold runs especially for the end of november and December!

 

I'm pretty certain it was chucking those sort of charts last year and nothing came of it. That model should be taken with a lorry load of salt! I can't find the Archive for 2013/2014 winter, but I'm convinced it was horrendous in its long term modelling, which should come as no surprise really. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CFS was showing lots of blocking and a cold DJF with much snow until it flipped in October and started to back off the idea. Worth looking at but not depending on.

Edited by simshady

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty certain it was chucking those sort of charts last year and nothing came of it. That model should be taken with a lorry load of salt! I can't find the Archive for 2013/2014 winter, but I'm convinced it was horrendous in its long term modelling, which should come as no surprise really. 

 

Here you go Karlos, the cfs archive link

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=3&run=10&archive=1&mois=9&heure=6&jour=22&annee=2013

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty certain it was chucking those sort of charts last year and nothing came of it. That model should be taken with a lorry load of salt! I can't find the Archive for 2013/2014 winter, but I'm convinced it was horrendous in its long term modelling, which should come as no surprise really.

hopefully these cold charts will still be there end of October/november!!
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CFS was showing lots of blocking and a cold DJF with much snow until it flipped in October and started to back off the idea. Worth looking at but not depending on.

 

Yes, the CFS backed off its blocking projections at this point last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello FU Berlin site, long time no see...

 

post-7292-0-58621500-1412287402_thumb.gi

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to explain that this is the Southern Hemisphere and a late season (possibly final) warming. Possibly good news for NH strat events this winter if it is indicative of a strong Brewer Dobson Circulation. We live in hope....

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It does seem to be FW actually.

Hope is something I have this year and I look forward to the new thread.

Should be a blast.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice wave 1 intro into the new season. :D

nhhgt10mb384.gif

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice wave 1 intro into the new season. :D

nhhgt10mb384.gif

Nice start. Will hopefully be able to get the new strat thread up and running within the next couple of weeks - possibly this weekend time permitting!

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks guys,looking forward to the new thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...