Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[UV-RAY]

Looks like the MetO are also seeing the potential for much colder weather towards the latter part of January. It's been a fantastic thread again this year, with more and more new members offering some first rate analysis alongside our established members. Great work , even if I do have to constantly cross reference  to the opening page to try and grasp a lot of the terminology used.

[bluearmy]

The meto update for late jan certainly seems to be strat derived. Mogreps-15 doesnt go far enough and ec 32 wasnt showing anything at that range. Clearly their strat model must be seeing a warming around the third week jan with a quick downwelling to follow.

[feb1991blizzard]

The meto update for late jan certainly seems to be strat derived. Mogreps-15 doesnt go far enough and ec 32 wasnt showing anything at that range. Clearly their strat model must be seeing a warming around the third week jan with a quick downwelling to follow.

 

Quite, although their caveats probably mean they are offering a quick downwelling as a possibility rather than probability and hopefully as February comes into range over the next few weeks they start to firm up on some blocking with a bit more certainty.

 

Last year the SSW was Jan the 6th I think, we had cold within a week, if not the extensive blocking that we all though might happen.

Edited December 28, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

Quite, although their caveats probably mean they are offering a quick downwelling as a possibility rather than probability and hopefully as February comes into range over the next few weeks they start to firm up on some blocking with a bit more certainty. Last year the SSW was Jan the 6th I think, we had cold within a week, if not the extensive blocking that we all though might happen.

I suspect their caveats are based on the fact their model may be wrong before they begin to think about downwelling!

[cooling climate]

Posted this in the model thread but more suited in here. Very exciting developments on

the GFS 12z run when looking at the strat charts on instant maps.

This could all be gone on the next run but if not very, very encouraging signs for blocked

and cold weather later in January and on into February.

[chionomaniac]

It is encouraging, cc. I think that the vortex will try and reorganise itself somewhat following the surge in wave 2 activity over the coming days - but it is what happens after this stratospherically in the second half of January which may just hold the key as to whether we will see any prolonged and notable cold spells this winter. I feel that for the last 6 weeks we have been treading water whilst waiting for the business end of this winter to get closer. Well, we are getting to that point where the GFS will give us some idea of what could occur from mid January onwards (stratospherically) and then what could be translated tropospherically into February - maybe a little sooner or maybe a little later - we won't know just yet.

 

For those who have not monitored the upper strat charts previously, it takes some time from seeing GFS T+384 1 hPa charts showing some kind of warming, for that to be translated to lower stratospheric levels and also for that to then affect the vortex. Patience will be the key as always, alongside reasonable expectation.

[Ruben Amsterdam]

It's back. And a tiny bit stronger again (at 10hPa) than the 12z run. 

Edited December 28, 2013 by Ruben Amsterdam

[bluearmy]

And the timing would tie in with exeters comments from this morning. interesting ................

[cooling climate]

And the timing would tie in with exeters comments from this morning. interesting ................

Yes just scene the 18z strat charts, Looks like their strat model may be on the

ball already. Certainly could not ask for a better place for the warming to take

place.

Also the charts showing the warming get down to the 20mb range by the end of

the run. If this is no red herring then we could very well be looking at a winter of

two halves.

Edited December 28, 2013 by cooling climate

[feb1991blizzard]

What is the met office 'Strat model' I keep hearing about please, surely its a monthly / seasonal / Ens model including input data at all levels of the atmosphere, I know their seasonal / monthly models were upgraded to include right up to the very top of the strat, is this what people are talking about?

[Gael_Force]

What is the met office 'Strat model' I keep hearing about please, surely its a monthly / seasonal / Ens model including input data at all levels of the atmosphere, I know their seasonal / monthly models were upgraded to include right up to the very top of the strat, is this what people are talking about?

 

Here's their press release on it.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/improved-winter-guidance

[lorenzo]

Fair to say the GFS is ramping up the interest.. this looks significant.

 

Couple of things -  if the vortex does go , what an extreme amount of cold is bottled up there ready to spill to lower latitudes considering the nearly off the grid JMA plot this morning cranking in at -87 degrees. Regarding where it spills, 2 locations come to mind as figuring throughout this season - 1 the core of the CONUS and 2 to our East with that repeat hit of troughing deep into the continent. I reckon it would be about impossible to guess where a 'fallout' would occur from any immediate down-welling but these have certainly been this years favourite locations.

 

Also,wrt to the Glosea 4 this model has ran in winter seasons where there has been something of an inevitability about the SSW event happening, solid Wave activity existed throughout the seasons leaving the vortex open to a final hit.  The Kamchatkan ridge bossed the NH profile and no surprises it gets noticed on the output.

 

This season the vortex is in a different category of strength to the last couple of years, so you wonder if the model, if indeed that is what the longer outlook is based on, is reacting to the very strong wave activity and interpreting as a SSW whereas perhaps this wave activity against this season vortex isn't going to deliver the same result. What a start to 2014 coming up for watching the developments.

 

 

[sundog]

One thing ive been wondering is that how cold the strat has been and how strong the pv has been this month is that how come at times this month North America has had some very cold weather. Is it simply because the normal home of the pv is over greenland /east canada which would make North America at times likely to get cold weather anyway regardless of the strat? So could it be said to a certain degree that strat warming is of much greater importance to other areas in the northern hemisphere like Europe for example and other places other than North America? Sorry if this is a silly question.

[NorthernRab]

One thing ive been wondering is that how cold the strat has been and how strong the pv has been this month is that how come at times this month North America has had some very cold weather. Is it simply because the normal home of the pv is over greenland /east canada which would make North America at times likely to get cold weather anyway regardless of the strat? So could it be said to a certain degree that strat warming is of much greater importance to other areas in the northern hemisphere like Europe for example and other places other than North America? Sorry if this is a silly question.

 

It's certainly a very logical question and you're likely quite right in your assertion (though I don't know enough in this area to comment fully with regards to the stratosphere itself). Given that our planet spins in the way that it does, locations to the west of any given continent will be considerably milder or moderated in their climate than their eastern coastal equivalent of the same latitude (compare the west coast of Scotland to northern Newfoundland, at the same latitude and both coastal). 

 

Hence Europe is granted much focus when we talk about major climate shifts such as the mini ice age or the collapse of the NAO - locations such as Norway and Scotland would see drops in excess of 10'C to 12'C, with similar drops in Ireland, Wales and England - while by no means entirely lethal for people it would be disastrous for the ostensibly hardy, though in reality fragile, ecosystems which exist in such locations. 

Edited December 29, 2013 by NorthernRab

[chionomaniac]

I think that we are seeing increasing signs that the vortex will be taking a big hit come the end of January. Time to start looking for/at Ocean heat fluxes and blocking precursers to SSW's.....

 

 

.....more to follow on this in the coming days.

 

But first look at the reduction in mean zonal wind speed at 1 hPa forecast over the next 10 days, the period of Vortex Intensification (VI) may just be coming to an end.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=1&forecast=all&lng=eng

[cooling climate]

The warming that is forecast to take place to the north of the UK is probably down to

the deep convection 160-120w in the Pacific drawing warm air high into the atmosphere.

I am hoping that the runs today will intensify this warming again as we saw last evening.

[Ruben Amsterdam]

 According to GFS06 fi, the vortex reforms slightly, but pressure on the vortex is ramped up again at the end of the run

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Same signature at 10hPa. 

 

[bluearmy]

I think this 06z gfs run is the first I've seen this winter that splits the vortex right up to 1hpa.

[chionomaniac]

I think this 06z gfs run is the first I've seen this winter that splits the vortex right up to 1hpa.

Think of it in this case as from 1hPa down to the tropopause. Cautiously excited.....

 

 

...we will need a lot more interrun consistency though.

 

(Note  - not a SSW forecast but an encouraging split that with further wave activity could lead to a SSW by the end of the month)

[bluearmy]

Think of it in this case as from 1hPa down to the tropopause. Cautiously excited.....  ...we will need a lot more interrun consistency though. (Note  - not a SSW forecast but an encouraging split that with further wave activity could lead to a SSW by the end of the month)

tbh, because I look at 10hpa first on meteociel, I referenced up to 1hpa when this is clearly led top down. Incidentally, as I just mentioned on the model bread, if we still have a split trop vortex and neg/neutral AO when a SSW strikes, will be interesting to see what follows. ( that assumes we actually see one).

 

noticed you brought cohen's paper back to the top of the 'teleconnective learning thread'.  you are thinking positively ed aren't you !!  i crudely noted that a positive trop anolomy n scandy precedes a strat vortex split. always, no question,  its a given ......., never fails.   now, back to reality and i get a feeling form the extended ens this morning that we could have a period of confusing output. hope i'm wrong cos i'm not sure the MOD thread will cope !

Edited December 29, 2013 by bluearmy

[cooling climate]

It will be interesting to read the Meto updates over the coming days.

I would of thought the nearer we get to a SSW the stronger the blocking

and synoptically and tropospheric wise the closer we could get to a

Jan87 or Feb 91 type of event.

I know I am getting way, way ahead of myself but its hard to curb my

enthusiasm after such a poor first third of winter plus if this is to be a

significant warming then the possibilities mentioned are certainly on the

table.

[chionomaniac]

tbh, because I look at 10hpa first on meteociel, I referenced up to 1hpa when this is clearly led top down. Incidentally, as I just mentioned on the model bread, if we still have a split trop vortex and neg/neutral AO when a SSW strikes, will be interesting to see what follows. ( that assumes we actually see one).

 

noticed you brought cohen's paper back to the top of the 'teleconnective learning thread'.  you are thinking positively ed aren't you !!  i crudely noted that a positive trop anolomy n scandy precedes a strat vortex split. always, no question,  its a given ......., never fails.   now, back to reality and i get a feeling form the extended ens this morning that we could have a period of confusing output. hope i'm wrong cos i'm not sure the MOD thread will cope !

Even though SSW's are unlikely in wQBO and current potential solar flux conditions as has been reported through the likes of Karen Labitzke's excellent work, I have always thought that there was a possibility of strong wave 2 activity in January that would lead to possible vortex disruption throughout February. This somewhat goes against the January forecast for the OPI (October Pattern Index) and the SAI (Snowcover Advance Index), but can be backed up by Cohen's earlier work on the SCE (Snow Cover Extent index).

 

Now we are seeing strong wave 2 forecasts that match the predicted analogue years, I feel that there are grounds for some optimism. Even if we do not see a SSW, we may still achieve enough of a disrupted and weakened vortex to allow some of the pent up high latitude cold to be dragged towards us during late January and February. I never at any point in this winter expected any cold outbreaks to occur until well into January/February (if at all) and see no reason to alter those thoughts.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

hi guys, anyone dareing enough to have a guess as to the likely location of any blocking that forms from this particular type/location of strat warming, maybe based on similar previous warmings? - if there has been a warming previously in a similar location to that forecast?

i know thats probably an impossible question to answer, but thought id give it a shot anyway!

thanks for the excellent cutting-edge thread choino and friends :-) 

[cooling climate]

hi guys, anyone dareing enough to have a guess as to the likely location of any blocking that forms from this particular type/location of strat warming, maybe based on similar previous warmings? - if there has been a warming previously in a similar location to that forecast?

i know thats probably an impossible question to answer, but thought id give it a shot anyway!

thanks for the excellent cutting-edge thread choino and friends :-) 

If I am not mistaken end of Jan2009, Jan 1985, and Jan 1991 all of which brought a

Scandinavian ridge and east/northeasterly airflow. Not sure about 1987 but would not

be at all surprised if this was the same.

[aginob]

good evening

 

this model again black and white ( pity )

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-36

go to see posting #707 ( source: instantweathermaps free )

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northern hemisphere

most recent polar vortex 2013 - 2014

 

when you wish 2013 - 2014 animation is possible to post ( 82 frames ... ~2.5 MB )

Edited December 29, 2013 by aginob