Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[phil nw.]

Looks like the 06Z is becoming the 'SSW run!'

Yes really promising stuff in all of today's outputs Ed for HLB to develop.

ECM charts showing zonal wind reversals right through the levels over the Arctic(in Lorenzos post) is a real positive this morning.

[Recretos]

 

Looks like the 06Z is becoming the 'SSW run!'

 

 

Without a doubt. If only his "cousins" would follow.  It is suspicious that only the 6z run is always so aggressive. 

 

Technical SSW at T366 in this 6z run. 10mb time series:

 

Edited January 26, 2014 by Recretos

[Ruben Amsterdam]

I know nothing about the strat in order to comment on it, but I pop in here now and again and look at some posts, and it seems to me that the warmings that show up always seem to be at the end of the run, and still aren't getting any closer?!

Or is this just me not seeing everything as I only have a look every couple of days??

It's not just you. 

[feb1991blizzard]

This chart at 30hpa surely indicative of a subsequent Greeny block?

 

[Northern Sky]

Without a doubt. If only his "cousins" would follow.  It is suspicious that only the 6z run is always so aggressive. 

 

Technical SSW at T366 in this 6z run. 10mb time series:

 

I'm sure I read somewhere that the different GFS runs have variable - more/less/different sources of data input? I wonder if that is true of the data input from the stratosphere? Surely there must be a reason why the 6z powers up these warmings to such an extent?

[lorenzo]

I wonder if Snowballz or fergieweather can now tell us a little more about what Glosea5 was seeing mid January?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Great posts this morning,nice to see that horrid PV getting shredded-the burning question is how long do the experts think the lag will be before we see changes in NH profile? The clock is certainly beginning to tock now Feb is only 5 days away...

[cooling climate]

 

This chart at 30hpa surely indicative of a subsequent Greeny block?

 

 I doubt we would need a warming that strong to see some very tasty synoptics

developing during February.

Great stuff again Recretos.

Agreed Lorenzo is this what Ian F and co were hinting about if so and we do

continue to see a very strong and amplified wave 2 pattern and split I

wonder when there may be a mention in their 30day forecast of perhaps a big

pattern change on the way.Although it could be argued that what we are seeing

in the model output now is the start of this change.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

  I doubt we would need a warming that strong to see some very tasty synopticsdeveloping during February.Great stuff again Recretos.Agreed Lorenzo is this what Ian F and co were hinting about if so and we docontinue to see a very strong and amplified wave 2 pattern and split Iwonder when there may be a mention in their 30day forecast of perhaps a bigpattern change on the way.Although it could be argued that what we are seeingin the model output now is the start of this change.

Hmmm-longer range modelling (GFS/ECM)continue with the poor profile to the north west as far as the eye can see...

[Interitus]

Hmmm-longer range modelling (GFS/ECM)continue with the poor profile to the north west as far as the eye can see...

 

Well it's a bit too early to see any possible impact. In any case the troposphere AO shows a tendency to increase towards and around the time of SSW so the disappearance of the polar high and consolidation of the tropospheric vortex in FI may be a possible indication of this.

[Snowy L]

Looks like we're getting 12z support for the 06z. Temperature charts are pretty much identical to t300

 

 

Vortex well and truly split:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360

Edited January 26, 2014 by Snowy L

[ITSY]

Looks like we're getting 12z support for the 06z. Temperature charts are pretty much identical to t300  Vortex well and truly splithttp://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360

I seem to recall chino mentioning how, as these are temperature graphs, it's impossible to know exactly where the vortex is on these graphs - although it's obvious there is a relationship between the temp and the relative positioning of the vortex. The question is how long these stratospheric Synoptics take to propagate downward, and where exactly any resultant block at our level would form. The fact that the warming seems to be over Greenland would presumably give us an advantage on this front.

[Snowy L]

I seem to recall chino mentioning how, as these are temperature graphs, it's impossible to know exactly where the vortex is on these graphs - although it's obvious there is a relationship between the temp and the relative positioning of the vortex. The question is how long these stratospheric Synoptics take to propagate downward, and where exactly any resultant block at our level would form. The fact that the warming seems to be over Greenland would presumably give us an advantage on this front.

 

I know I posted the pressure chart under it. Interestingly the split propagated down fairly quickly on this run with a very near split on the 30hpa charts;

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012612&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384

[Ruben Amsterdam]

ECM and GFS reasonably agree. 

[cooling climate]

Looking at the daily composite strat charts for 2009 the are many

similarities between this warming and that in regards to location,

depth etc althouth of course most of this is in the extended range

and is still just a forecast at this stage.

[Guest I'm a superstar]

Just one question: 

 

From the PV split to the effect in weather pattern is what i have heard can be several days to 1-2 weeks, but can you say overall the more closer you live to the pole the faster effect? 

[Snowy L]

Upgrade! Clear split as early as t250-300 on this run

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=276

Edited January 26, 2014 by Snowy L

[chionomaniac]

Yes - a good one this. 

 

[Cloud 10]

Spectacular warming from the 18z!

 

 

 

edit.

heights added. 

 

Edited January 26, 2014 by Cloud 10

[ITSY]

Yes - a good one this. viewimage.png

Fantastic upgrade - I wonder if the last frame of the 18Z run (with blocking headed northwards) is a sign of possible downward propagation. All interesting!

[feb1991blizzard]

SSW on this one, over to you Recretos to tell us at what point, I will be conservative based on my previous hasty estimates. I will guess 348.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=348

Edited January 26, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[chionomaniac]

SSW on this one, over to you Recretos to tell us at what point, I will be conservative based on my previous hasty estimates. I will guess 348.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=348

I reckon it will be sooner than that. Going on the visual I reckon between T+288 and T+300.

[karyo]

The 18z warming makes the one that the 6z offered look rather tame!

 

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

  I doubt we would need a warming that strong to see some very tasty synopticsdeveloping during February.Great stuff again Recretos.Agreed Lorenzo is this what Ian F and co were hinting about if so and we docontinue to see a very strong and amplified wave 2 pattern and split Iwonder when there may be a mention in their 30day forecast of perhaps a bigpattern change on the way.Although it could be argued that what we are seeingin the model output now is the start of this change.

 

 

Yes, I think we are about to at least buy a ticket, I think these FI trop runs with the trough anchored to the WNW of us will verify though, Ian F and the met say strong signal for a WSW flow now so I think a little bit later before FI corkers start showing though, think that will be hard to shift, I will go about another 5 days before we see some great FI runs showing up Blocking mid feb, one thing bugging me is EP flux charts showing strong equator ward flow though, need that to change.

[feb1991blizzard]

I reckon it will be sooner than that. Going on the visual I reckon between T+288 and T+300.

 

I would have said that but I always seem to be out, very hard to tell unless you have some sort of measuring screen software, plus its hard to tell exactly what point in between the isobars identified as to where the Westerlies become Easterlies, great post from Recretos on this subject with that diagram last night, is he Einstein in disguise!!!