Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[lorenzo]

Not to my knowledge, ECM server needs a kick now and again..!

 

Found this though..

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.93,84.73,512

[cooling climate]

Anybody having trouble accessing stratosphere instant weather maps,

[bluearmy]

Anybody having trouble accessing stratosphere instant weather maps,

 

nope

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013121500&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=216

[cooling climate]

nope

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013121500&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=216

Strange, It still does not work the stratosphere section is missing from the drop down section

when you press maps. I also wonder if anyone uses the NOAA arctic theme page site to look at

temperatures around the Arctic.These are still showing the 17th of September and on the Arctic

maps site Athropolis the temps on the russian side are still from the summer.

Sorry to clog the thread up but since it is quite in here, hope you do not mind. Cheers.

[Summer Sun]

This maybe of interest for some in here

 

Stratospheric vortex

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-10.29,61.29,432

 

Thanks to Matt Hugo for tweeting the link

Edited December 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

This maybe of interest for some in here

 

Stratospheric vortex

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-10.29,61.29,432

 

Thanks to Matt Hugo for tweeting the link

 

helps if you read the previous posts on the thread gav !!

 

cc - fortunately the strat charts are still there but its strange how they cant be accessed from the main menu

[lorenzo]

Hopefully the fu Berlin will get their stuff sorted out tomorrow. Looked about on the web and it looks like the material from ECM is not available anywhere else.

 

Some poleward EP Flux on the stratospheric plot on the JMA Page was the most interesting thing I could find today.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Back on.

 

 

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im sure many of us are scouring this thread in the hope of developments in the strat.

The intense Polar vortex is absolutely destroying any hope of HL blocking.

[Duane S.]

Quite a decent profile around 80N up to about 50mb on the face of it but seeminly unable to make any real inroads.

 

 

(This was taken from yesterday's Berlin data as well, today's not quite as good in that respect).

 

Maybe going into January we will start to see the vortex take some effective body blows. The 30mb level seems to be hard to penetrate, constant fuelling by the W-QBO no doubt helping that.

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone get the feeling that if this was another year with a weaker PV, some of this wave 2 activity might have been enough to force a nice split?

[Snowy L]

Quite a decent profile around 80N up to about 50mb on the face of it but seeminly unable to make any real inroads.

 

ecmwfzm_u_f96.gif

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

 

(This was taken from yesterday's Berlin data as well, today's not quite as good in that respect).

 

Maybe going into January we will start to see the vortex take some effective body blows. The 30mb level seems to be hard to penetrate, constant fuelling by the W-QBO no doubt helping that.

 

100mph zonal winds yikes, surely this is a sign that wave breaking is putting some pressure on the vortex making it more concentrated, rather than the vortex getting stronger in general?

[lorenzo]

Re: Weaker vortex and Wave 2, Recretos made some excellent analysis on this very point a couple of posts back.

 

Looking at Chiono's very first post and the composite for December and in comparison with December to date, could we be a little bit further on than predicted at this stage? With the vortex tightening wondering if it is using up all it's winter juice more quickly than usual?

 

Looking at the zonal wind profile however, it certainly isn't messing around.

 

Next few charts show the heatflux and wave 2 peaks in current output and a gif starting at the top of the strat. down to show there impact.

 

Think we may need an anomalous Siberian ridge or any kind of Greenland ridge to eventually get in about this Winter's vortex.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chionomaniac]

100mph zonal winds yikes, surely this is a sign that wave breaking is putting some pressure on the vortex making it more concentrated, rather than the vortex getting stronger in general?

That's 100m/s which is around 224mph........

Re: Weaker vortex and Wave 2, Recretos made some excellent analysis on this very point a couple of posts back.

 

Looking at Chiono's very first post and the composite for December and in comparison with December to date, could we be a little bit further on than predicted at this stage? With the vortex tightening wondering if it is using up all it's winter juice more quickly than usual?

compday.OaOfpj37nj.gifpost-4523-0-55618700-1381779316.png

 

Remember to check the scales, Tony!

[lorenzo]

That's 100m/s which is around 224mph........

Remember to check the scales, Tony!

 

No chance, avoid them at the gym at all costs !

 

Did notice the scale was slightly different with the monthly composite having a higher range, was thinking more about the geography of the anomaly, with heights concentrated more on the Kara vs East Siberian sea. Either way the vortex is the important part of the puzzle, and it's bang on.

[Recretos]

No chance, avoid them at the gym at all costs !

 

Did notice the scale was slightly different with the monthly composite having a higher range, was thinking more about the geography of the anomaly, with heights concentrated more on the Kara vs East Siberian sea. Either way the vortex is the important part of the puzzle, and it's bang on.

 

The scales are not the problem. Its the date. You have made the composite from 1.1 to 13.12.

 

This is the actual mean so far for December.

 

 

And this is the daily mean for 30/12, from the year collection in Chionos composite form the first post. 

 

[lorenzo]

The scales are not the problem. Its the date. You have made the composite from 1.1 to 13.12.

 

This is the actual mean so far for December.

 

 

And this is the daily mean for 30/12, from the year collection in Chionos composite form the first post. 

 

 

Glad you are around to keep me right Recretos So, as an added bonus / distraction, in my original post that was 2013 so far 30mb heights ! 

[Recretos]

No problem, tho my intention was not really to correct you, but just to point out the date, so people wont get confused.

 

GFS Control run doesn't look too bad, considering how the operational run looks like. And considering the ageostrophic flux, it does seem to have some decent wavebreaking, which is quite remarkable, given its 2mb model top (or perhaps that is the reason. ).

 

 

 

 

Cheers.

 

P.S.: On a side note, as noted on the NOAA modelling site, they are considering ensemble resolution increase to T574L64 (model top at 0.3 hpa) in 2014. Not confirmed yet, but it is a possibility. And I would say that it is a likely possibility, given the resolution increase priority at NCEP. The most evident being the considered GFS resolution increase to T1148 (~18km) on a semi-lagrangian grid. Tho the question remains, how the FIM model comes into play, with its revolutionary icosahedral grid. 

Edited December 16, 2013 by Recretos

[lorenzo]

No problem, tho my intention was not really to correct you, but just to point out the date, so people wont get confused.

GFS Control run doesn't look too bad, considering how the operational run looks like. And considering the ageostrophic flux, it does seem to have some decent wavebreaking, which is quite remarkable, given its 2mb model top (or perhaps that is the reason. ).

 

 

Cheers.

 

P.S.: On a side note, as noted on the NOAA modelling site, they are considering ensemble resolution increase to T574L64 (model top at 0.3 hpa) in 2014. Not confirmed yet, but it is a possibility. And I would say that it is a likely possibility, given the resolution increase priority at NCEP. The most evident being the considered GFS resolution increase to T1148 on a semi-lagrangian grid. Tho the question remains, how the FIM model comes into play, with its revolutionary icosahedral grid. 

 

Confused myself, totally agree with the correction and thank you for doing so.

 

Part in bold needs some further explanation please , have you been having coffee with Snowballz ( another quite technical, well versed poster on here).  GFS surely has to step up and match the ECM lid, unfamiliar with the semi-langrangian ( is this some form of mathematical processing / interpretation). Icosahedral sounds like hardcore physics! Fascinating, but please go further, I know one other poster mentioned FIM previously, really not sure what it's aims are.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

[Interitus]

Semi-lagrangian is a method for calculating fluid dynamics, advection in particular, here is a presentation by the ECMWF for anyone who really wants to know more - http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/training/rcourse_notes/NUMERICAL_METHODS/NUMERICAL_METHODS/Numerical_methods6.html

Basically it's just a frame of reference for calculation - the trajectories individual parcels of air can be followed (Lagrangian) or the changes in air that pass through a fixed point (Eulerian).

 

Icosahedral refers to the layout of grid points used. A typical grid based on degrees has points which are far apart near the equator and concentrated closely at higher latitudes, culminating in singularities at the poles. Representing the globe with an icosahedral or spherical geodesic attempts to space the points out more evenly - think of the most common example being a football or truncated icosahedron (which is also the shape of the carbon Buckminsterfullerene molecule).

This presentation demonstrates implementation of a icosahedral globe, and shows a few other example grids.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/rpn/SEM/dossiers/2010/seminaires/2010-02-19/Seminar_2010-02-19_Janusz-Pudykiewicz.pdf

 

Note that this doesn't exclude either semi-lagrangian or pure Eulerian techniques either of which will be typically applied to icosahedral globes, with potentially improved efficiency.

[OldMetMan]

Hi all,

I am a complete novice when it comes to the science of the stratosphere but I am trying to learn the basics at least!

I study the various indicators for changes in that part of the atmosphere, and one chart caught my eye this morning, and I was wondering if one or more of the knowledgeable posters could explain the significance, if there is any, of what this chart shows:

These are the 10mb temperature changes over the last week and my attention was drawn to the dark red area over Asia which, according to my interpretation of the chart legend, would seem to be showing a substantial temperature rise in the latest chart of the series.

I am beginning to grasp the whole idea of stratospheric warming and its impact on the normal cyclonic, circumpolar W-E flow in the troposphere, so is the apparent temperature increase indicative of such a warming?

Excuse my ignorance! I doubt if I shall ever understand the physics involved here but I am finding this whole area of meteorology quite fascinating.

Any comments would be greatly appreciated!

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7709.0

The creators of the OPI have announced they will work together in the future with Judah Cohen. Please use google translate if your Italian is not that good.

 

This chart below represents their expected wave activity.

 

[karyo]

The GFS continues to show a warming event over Asia at the 30hpa level but not until early January.

Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7709.0

The creators of the OPI have announced they will work together in the future with Judah Cohen. Please use google translate if your Italian is not that good.

 

This chart below represents their expected wave activity.

what does the graph show ? 

[chionomaniac]

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7709.0

The creators of the OPI have announced they will work together in the future with Judah Cohen. Please use google translate if your Italian is not that good.

 

This chart below represents their expected wave activity.

Thanks for the great link, Sebastiaan. From reading that it would appear great news that Judah Cohen has approached them to enter a future collaboration. It certainly seems that they are onto something and this could be groundbreaking for long term winter forecasting. Note the colder February hinted at for the UK but stong vortex conditions likely early Jan.

 

The thing is, and this is more regarding longer term forecasts, is that I feel we have been close to making a breakthrough for a while now and the work of those such as Stewart Rampling who have always suggested that long wave patterns are not simply random, but can be predicted and re-occur time and time again when the starting teleconnective conditions are the same will be vindicated in their thoughts. The Italians seem to been able to analyze the autumnal vortex conditions and have used this to be able to predict the following winter vortex state, And so far this winter their prediction correlates very well. It is a pity that we see so many longe range hopecasts out there that do a lot to denigrate from the work of the true researchers. The Italians work still has to be published and peer reviewed and so until this occurs we should be more cautious, but the fact that they have predicted this winter in advance will give us some kind of mark to judge the authenticity of their work without peer review. Interestingly, their own winter forecast does fit in with the previous analogue composite years that I have used to base NW winter forecasts - again, it will be interesting to see how this plays out as I am a strong believer in the predictability of repeated patterns and that the butterfly effect may not be quite as true as initially thought .