Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[rug]

Does this not bode well for a SSW?

 

 

 

Having looked through the archive charts for thoses dates , I would say they all look pretty good ( or lead onto something good) for cold.

 

[Buriedundersnow]

small question for the more experienced in here.

 

we have heard being banded about that the closest to this year was 62/63.

 

that year was a west phase QBO as well like this year.

 

did we have an SSW that year and if we did when did this occur and did it tie in with the cold weather or did we see cold outside of any SSW effects.

[chionomaniac]

small question for the more experienced in here.

 

we have heard being banded about that the closest to this year was 62/63.

 

that year was a west phase QBO as well like this year.

 

did we have an SSW that year and if we did when did this occur and did it tie in with the cold weather or did we see cold outside of any SSW effects.

I haven't seen 62/63 being bandied around. There was a CW and SSW that winter. However, it was an East QBO year (not west like this year) with lowish solar flux.

[joggs]

Are we not overdue a CW?,thanks

[chionomaniac]

Are we not overdue a CW?,thanks

Yes, statistically. But the last one in a wQBO was 1980/81 so I wouldn't hold your breath.

[UV-RAY]

I haven't seen 62/63 being bandied around. There was a CW and SSW that winter. However, it was an East QBO year (not west like this year) with lowish solar flux.

I think 1947 was west based QBO which also had a CW, I think?

Edited October 30, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Buriedundersnow]

I haven't seen 62/63 being bandied around. There was a CW and SSW that winter. However, it was an East QBO year (not west like this year) with lowish solar flux.

 

sorry must be reading the QBO charts wrong will pick it up with time though.

[phil nw.]

Yes further to Chiono.s reply Canadian warmings have been almost absent recently-- last one in 2000/01.

 

We had 20 in the last half of the 20th century occurring mainly in November and 3 in December.

 

Link here

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

 

very few CW in west QBO years-4 in fact since 1950 so the odds are not in our favour this year but they have happened.

 

Yes 1962/3 Winter was a double whammy for warmings,as C said,with the CW in November and SSW in February and we all know what sort of Winter that was-i remember it well!

 

Out of interest the archived NH 500 hPa chart shows the intial disruption to the vortex around Christmas 1962

 

the vortex never really recovered after the early warming and was ripe for the second warming later on which saw many areas of the UK remaining snow covered until early march when the Atlantic finally broke through.

 

Many of those CWs resulted in some form of blocking around Greenland/Iceland-here are the best examples since 62/3

 

the initial warmings would have been 2-4 weeks approx prior to the resulting mangled vortex shown in those charts.

 

Of course not all warmings induce blocking in the right area for the UK to get the cold so this is something to bear in mind when looking at any weakening of the strato PV.

Edited October 30, 2013 by phil nw.

[bluearmy]

I mentioned canada some weeks ago. I have no idea if some of the data/charts i've seen have subconsciously led me to think we will see a CW within the next 6 weeks or if its just intuition. Not long to find out !

Incidentally, i just posted in the 'model resolution' thread that ecm op now has 137 vertical levels and that a proposed upgrade to the ens suite is due next monthwhich will take that model's ceiling from 5hpa to 0.01 hpa. both these changes should improve the strat/trop modelling.

Edited October 30, 2013 by bluearmy

[phil nw.]

I mentioned canada some weeks ago. I have no idea if some of the data/charts i've seen have subconsciously led me to think we will see a CW within the next 6 weeks or if its just intuition. Not long to find out !Incidentally, i just posted in the 'model resolution' thread that ecm op now has 137 vertical levels and that a proposed upgrade to the ens suite is due next monthwhich will take that model's ceiling from 5hpa to 0.01 hpa. both these changes should improve the strat/trop modelling.

Yes interesting to look at the archived 500 NH patterns for November Nick.

Many of them showing the vortex being pulled about with that Aleutian ridge often showing it,s hand.A popular area for wave breaking it seems over the years.Of course they don.t always give us the result we coldies are looking for.!

[Duane S.]

I must admit I've never quite got my head around the elusive Canadian Warming. What is the actual definition of one? Is it as simple as saying it is an SSW (i.e. reversal of zonal winds @ 10mb / 60N) occuring by early December? Why 'Canadian'? I assume this is where above most of these early winter warmings occur as opposed to where they have to be located above in order to be named as such.

[lorenzo]

Here is one for you Phil http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

Re Canadian Warmings, this post from last year thread from Gael Force located the paper with the definitions.

 

Here is a copy of the definition to save you clicking around. 

 

2.4 Canadian Warming
The fourth type of warming, a Canadian warming is actually a hybrid; a minor
warming disguised as a major warming. At first, a Canadian warming looks like a
major warming, in which the easterly winds replace the zonal westerly flow in the
polar latitudes. However, a closer examination of this phenomenon shows that the
westerly polar night jet has not really been destroyed, as in a major warming, but
is displaced south of 60°N and, usually, relocated over southern Siberia. Canadian
warmings set up when an intense strengthening of the Aleutian High forces the high
to build into northern Canada. The warm air and easterly winds associated with the
high displace the cold polar vortex, pushing it south into Siberia, causing easterly
flow in the high latitudes (Labitzke, 1977). When the Aleutian High weakens, the
polar vortex pushes northward and the stratosphere returns to its normal winter

 

circulation.

 

[Gael_Force]

This is a very detailed look at the stratospheric conditions during winter '62''63 - it was written in the summer following the event so will be lacking in a lot of the technical detail that has subsequently been added to our knowledge.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281964%29003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Edited October 30, 2013 by Gael_Force

[Interitus]

Unlike the earlier CW, the SSW of February 1963 can't really be considered as a cause of the extreme cold for the UK that winter, if anything it led to a change towards more normal conditions as considered in this previous post-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/?p=2605326

[Catacol]

Where can I get NH archive charts at 500hPa? 

 

So... we have an Aleutian High set to build in the reliable time frame in early November but the vortex heading more for Canada rather than Siberia. Can anyone post archive charts of the classic November CW warming scenario? I'm being dull I expect but cant seem to find any.

 

Is there perhaps any correlation with a weak Siberian high brought about by poor snow cover in late October and a CW? Or is that too simplistic?

 

Being dull again I cant find any long term archive of NH snow cover charts either. Do they exist?

Edited October 31, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[crikey]

 

 

The 10 hpa stratospheric warm anomalies have completely subsided in the SH and the NH is ramping up

------------------------------

 

ACCESS G ( model) is indicating a severe intense low in the sub polar nth pacific ocean next wed 6th nov 2013

Last year an intense low in the same area accompanied/initiated an SSW in the same area.

Could be a good one to watch..
Select..Play the animation and watch next Wednesday the 6th NOV around 5pm

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Where can I get NH archive charts at 500hPa? 

 

So... we have an Aleutian High set to build in the reliable time frame in early November but the vortex heading more for Canada rather than Siberia. Can anyone post archive charts of the classic November CW warming scenario? I'm being dull I expect but cant seem to find any.

 

Is there perhaps any correlation with a weak Siberian high brought about by poor snow cover in late October and a CW? Or is that too simplistic?

 

Being dull again I cant find any long term archive of NH snow cover charts either. Do they exist?

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1871&map=4&mode=2

[johnholmes]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1871&map=4&mode=2

 

wow what a find, thanks for that, can spend hours scrolling through some of the cold winters I've lived through from 1947 onwards, don't remember 1940-honest!

[bluearmy]

interesting test of the trop vortex approaching as an alaskan ridge seems likely to be pushed well into the arctic. the vortex looks like it will respond well to this onslaught but maybe further wave 1 activity from the accompanying downstream aleutian trough will provide further strat led tests later in nov.

[Catacol]

 

 

The 10 hpa stratospheric warm anomalies have completely subsided in the SH and the NH is ramping up

------------------------------

 

ACCESS G ( model) is indicating a severe intense low in the sub polar nth pacific ocean next wed 6th nov 2013

Last year an intense low in the same area accompanied/initiated an SSW in the same area.

Could be a good one to watch..

Select..Play the animation and watch next Wednesday the 6th NOV around 5pm

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

 

 

Yep - that seems to be what pumps up the projected HP by the end of the week.

[Catacol]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1871&map=4&mode=2

Awesome - thanks. I use Meteociel all the time and had never spotted that.

 

So... where in Nov 62 was the CW evident? Reading the definition posted a few posts up the vortex moves to south Siberia and pulls easterlies along its northern flank... but this chart from 17 Nov 62 which I presume is the CW seems to have a pumped up Siberian high and a vortex being broken into pieces rather than relocated. I'm confused.

 

[Catacol]

interesting test of the trop vortex approaching as an alaskan ridge seems likely to be pushed well into the arctic. the vortex looks like it will respond well to this onslaught but maybe further wave 1 activity from the accompanying downstream aleutian trough will provide further strat led tests later in nov.

I'm determined to try and get a better handle on pacific teleconnections this year... so I have to ask this dumb question. Alaskan high and Aleutian low. OK - but to my very untrained eye the aleutians sit directly south of Alaska. How can the aleutian trough be downstream of an alaskan high? Does an aleutian low not actually pump up an alaskan high as per next week?

[johnholmes]

Awesome - thanks. I use Meteociel all the time and had never spotted that.

 

So... where in Nov 62 was the CW evident? Reading the definition posted a few posts up the vortex moves to south Siberia and pulls easterlies along its northern flank... but this chart from 17 Nov 62 which I presume is the CW seems to have a pumped up Siberian high and a vortex being broken into pieces rather than relocated. I'm confused.

 

 

 

hardly anything in meteorology is ever straightforward. Once you get that idea it is easier to live with what nature throws at us!

[MPG]

Awesome - thanks. I use Meteociel all the time and had never spotted that.

 

So... where in Nov 62 was the CW evident? Reading the definition posted a few posts up the vortex moves to south Siberia and pulls easterlies along its northern flank... but this chart from 17 Nov 62 which I presume is the CW seems to have a pumped up Siberian high and a vortex being broken into pieces rather than relocated. I'm confused.

 

A bit like what the GFS has just churned out...

 

[forecaster]

I'm determined to try and get a better handle on pacific teleconnections this year... so I have to ask this dumb question. Alaskan high and Aleutian low. OK - but to my very untrained eye the aleutians sit directly south of Alaska. How can the aleutian trough be downstream of an alaskan high? Does an aleutian low not actually pump up an alaskan high as per next week?

 

I think "Aleutian High" typically refers to a pressure pattern in the stratosphere.