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Looking forward to the thoughts of all contributors immensely! Great learning thread!

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Here's to the best thread on meteorological forums. Shame we will miss stewart's input and insight but there are plenty of informed posters to make up for this.

quite a bold opening post ed and you've made a solid 'prediction' of where you think we may be headed. My attention is drawn to the canadian sector at this early stage of the season.

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Here's to the best thread on meteorological forums. Shame we will miss stewart's input and insight but there are plenty of informed posters to make up for this.quite a bold opening post ed and you've made a solid 'prediction' of where you think we may be headed. My attention is drawn to the canadian sector at this early stage of the season.

Agree with that - Stewart will be missed greatly.

 

I think that by the end of November we will see where that prediction is heading. I think that if the strat cools down less quickly than anticipated then we may even be able to bring the feedback schedule through a bit quicker. The low sea ice years 500 hpa anomaly give us a massive tropospheric headstart.

 

post-4523-0-06147700-1381781666_thumb.pn

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Great to see this seasons thread up and running Ed.

I am sure many members have been eagerly waiting for this and i am sure this will become more popular than ever thanks to your efforts over the last few years.

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Thanks for that Ed, I would just advise members not to get too obsessed the Strat or see it as a refuge to come to for future hope when we see that barrelling zonality setup.

There have been many instances of the Greenland PV refusing to yield to supposed tropospheric developments and the colder spells of last winter and spring were not necessarily what 'should' have happened, though of course we are talking about positioning of blocking and how that impacts on small mid latitude islands .

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Thanks - this thread is very informative for all - will you update the forecasts in the OP peridocially?

 

What happened to GP?

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Thanks - this thread is very informative for all - will you update the forecasts in the OP peridocially?

 

What happened to GP?

 

He's left Netweather and his new job prohibits him from doing forecasts available to the public.

Here's to another great season (with no Polar Vortex remnants trailing about in the Atlantic again !).

 

What looked like a month or two ago for a SSW to be a statistical improbability, and thinking that we are due a cold and vortexy Winter, things this season have echoes of last year and the SAI and Siberian High potential have ramped things up somewhat.  

 

Hopefully another season of the vortex finding setting up home problematic and providing us all with some great model watching.  The best thing about this thread is that it is one of the best learning threads on any weather forum around, so much new material and 5 months to watch it all play out.

 

That comment deserves a +10.

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nice to c this thread back up an running chio. Gp's input will be mist how ever chio, lorenzo and 1-2 others will get most of us thru this up coming rolacoster ride. To lot of the new comers take a look at the links to websites and papers on the opening post by chio.

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Typhoon Wipha does a recurve as explained in some great detail here .

 

Net result is that over the course of the 10 day period North Pacific Ridge of some strength is reinforced, looks similar to the Kamchatka Peninsula feature from last year, and the troughing in the Aleutians develops. 

post-7292-0-43129800-1381820780_thumb.gipost-7292-0-91171400-1381820785_thumb.gi

Potentially more wave activity to follow then and more disruption to the vortex as it starts it's winter engines.

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Great to see the thread back. Fingers crossed for a winter heatwave in the stratosphere.

Edited by Suburban Streamer
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A great new topic, and so much material to work with. Posted Image And the awesome intro post by chionomaniac. Posted Image

 

 

That composite speaks for itself, but you have to keep in mind that there is much more to those years than just the low sea ice, like the oceans. So if I could rephrase that sentence, I would say "The current AMO/PDO combination 500 hpa anomaly give us a massive tropospheric headstart". Posted Image Of course among many other things, but keeping the main players in mind. Also realizing that the PDO and AMO are the "gatekeepers" to the Arctic. Too bad the sea ice data goes only back to 1980, because it would be interesting to see a correlation of these two cycles and the sea ice, for at least 100 years back. Posted Image

 

For example: Comparison of the last 3 great ocean cycle swings. 

50-75= Cold PDO / Warm AMO

80-98= Warm PDO / Cold AMO

99-12= Cold PDO / Warm AMO (as 50-75)

 

Posted Image

That would be all for now. Posted Image

 

Best regards.

Interesting that the last cycle shows no negative anomaly areas though Recretos - so one would think that there is more at play here - hence the difference being the low sea ice link?

 

Oh and to edit - love the phrase the 'gatekeepers'.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Interesting that the last cycle shows no negative anomaly areas though Recretos - so one would think that there is more at play here - hence the difference being the low sea ice link?

 

Oh and to edit - love the phrase the 'gatekeepers'.

 

Would that not be because the base period for climate is the most recent and the warmest; 1950 - 1975 would probably not have the same negative anomalies when referenced to the appropriate base.

 

Thanks for the great opening post - my favourite topic on here.

Edited by Gael_Force
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Would that not be because the base period for climate is the most recent and the warmest; 1950 - 1975 would probably not have the same negative anomalies when referenced to the appropriate base.

 

Thanks for the great opening post - my favourite topic on here.

Yes and no. I was in particular referring to the the last phase which was from 1999-2012 against the climatological mean of 1981 -2010. I would expect over the whole NH to have areas of positive anomalies and negative anomalies similar to 1950-1975, even allowing for the change in base state. With the composite building site still out of bounds I can't have a play around to demonstrate this. If the climatology comparison was using the years 1950-2010 I don't think the composites would look too different - though I could be wrong without checking.

Edited by chionomaniac
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I know this blog has been referred to a number of times already:

 

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk

 

Of particular interest (http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/late-winter-stratospheric-warming-likely.html):

 

 

Confidence continues to stay high with regards to a warm DEC in the east with a wet and cool pattern in the west. Analogs and modelling continue to stay in decent agreement. In sharp contrast, JAN-March looks increasingly interesting across the eastern CONUS. Looking back at +QBO, Low Solar and neutral ENSO years (85-86,90-91, 80-81 and 01-02) I found that in all cases their have been at least one late winter stratospheric warming event. With the expected warming ENSO state things could get very interesting in late winter and early spring if warmth can work its way down to 500mb. With an overall state of low solar continuing, this winter should be no different then the analog years with late winter EAMT events helping disrupt the upper stratospheric vortex. 

 

 

Tends to back up the general thoughts from many on here so far. 

 

And if we take a look at the composite years chosen there:

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

The general idea is of a late January/Early February potential SSW, with 85/86 being the odd one out (and a little bit of a curveball generally I feel).

 

If we take a look at two of our other discussed analog years, 08/09 and 78/79:

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

(The data doesn't quite go back to 1978/79, but as you can see by the time we get to February 1979, an SSW has already taken place)

 

So this is where the general idea of a potential SSW during the second half of this winter comes from, and it may well be a case of having to be rather patient until then without a few surprises.

 

SK

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Taken from the Tokyo centre shows the cooling vortex at 30hPa

 

post-2026-0-49612800-1381849338_thumb.gi  post-2026-0-64026400-1381849404_thumb.gi

 

cooling around the average for this point in Autumn.

Latest models reflecting this with a more influencial 500hPa vortex developing Atlantic mobility.

 

 

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Taken from the Tokyo centre shows the cooling vortex at 30hPa

 

Posted Imagetlat_t30_nh.gif  Posted Imagepole30_nh.gif

 

cooling around the average for this point in Autumn.

Latest models reflecting this with a more influencial 500hPa vortex developing Atlantic mobility.

 

There is just the minutest of spikes on that North pole chart, lets hope that becomes a massive spike in the coming days.

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I was feeling optimistic about an SSW this winter with us being at solar maximum with a west QBO (SSWs are more common under these conditions than in an east based QBO during solar minimum). However, the solar cycle has been very weak this year and it's gone against predictions of a maximum this year. 2011 is now considered to be the maximum and in fact we've seen a sharp drop in sun spot counts to levels last seen in the mid 2000s in the last few weeks.

 

Snow is advancing nicely below 60 degrees and we've already seen a few wobbles in the temperature profile in the stratosphere. I'm hoping we will see a minor warming or 2 to give us a shot at a cold spell in late November/December. Wave-1 activity is set to increase in the next few days, but while it will give a warming it doesn't look like anything too strong and I doubt it will disrupt the vortex too much,

Edited by Snowy L
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I was feeling optimistic about an SSW this winter with us being at solar maximum with a west QBO (SSWs are more common under these conditions than in an east based QBO during solar minimum). However, the solar cycle has been very weak this year and it's gone against predictions of a maximum this year. 2011 is now considered to be the maximum and in fact we've seen a sharp drop in sun spot counts to levels last seen in the mid 2000s in the last few weeks.

 

Snow is advancing nicely below 60 degrees and we've already seen a few wobbles in the temperature profile in the stratosphere. I'm hoping we will see a minor warming or 2 to give us a shot at a cold spell in late November/December. Wave-1 activity is set to increase in the next few days, but while it will give a warming it doesn't look like anything too strong and I doubt it will disrupt the vortex too much,

 

Solar max is a somewhat nebulous arithmetic concept anyway: where's the max here?

 

Posted Image

 

Rest assured we are in the current year(s) of peak activity. The poles have flipped recently as we can see here:

 

Posted Image

 

I'm pretty dubious about solar-climate connections to be honest, especially at the short range.

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So far, the 01/02 situation seems "close" to what we have now, but to be realistic, that warming event was basically useless, and not even a downweller (like the classic 81 and 91 events), which serves as a reality check in the great world of the stratosphere and cold shots. Posted Image

 

 

Well if we get a Winter similar to 2001/02 there will certainly be very little to cheer about from a coldie's perspective!

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Well if we get a Winter similar to 2001/02 there will certainly be very little to cheer about from a coldie's perspective!

 

he is only referring to one particular warming though. a singular event. remember that no two winters are the same

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