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The first tropical cyclone since Mahasen in May has formed in the Indian Ocean. Will have a full post later. Looks like a serious threat to Eastern India.

 

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080952ZOCT2013//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   090000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 93.4E     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 93.4E    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   091200Z --- 13.6N 92.3E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   100000Z --- 14.2N 91.1E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   101200Z --- 14.8N 89.8E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   110000Z --- 15.5N 88.3E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   120000Z --- 17.2N 85.9E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   130000Z --- 20.0N 83.9E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS    ---   120 HRS, VALID AT:   140000Z --- 22.7N 82.7E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---REMARKS:090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 93.1E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 554 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 082337Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 02B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN INDIA, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIA, JUST NORTH OF VISAKHAPATNAM. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28 TO 29C) SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 84). OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 081000Z OCT 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 081000).//

 

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02B has strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Phailin, with winds of 40kts. The cyclone has been moving over the Andaman Islands today, bringing high rainfall totals here. A curved banding feature is fuelling some renewed convection over the LLCC this evening, which has been lacking this afternoon. Phailin is expected to push west-northwest further into the Bay Of Bengal, then northwestwards towards eastern India as a weakness in the ridge to the north weakens slightly. With low shear and very warm waters expected along track, Phalin is expected to become a hurricane strength tropical cyclone. High end cat 1 on the SS scale is currently forecast by JTWC, but Phailin could get stronger than this as it has a good 3 days in this favourable environment.

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The latest JTWC advisory has Phailin's winds at 55kts. However, latest satellite imagery shows an increasingly well defined eye emerging from the central dense overcast, so expect these winds to rise next update. The quicker than expected strengthening is not good news for India.

 

post-1820-0-53897100-1381385648_thumb.jp

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Deep depression turns into cyclone Phailin

 

IMD says the cyclone will intensify into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours
 
Bhubaneswar: After crossing North Andaman Islands, the deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal Wednesday night intensified into cyclonic storm Phailin, while remaining practically stationary at about 950 km from Paradip, the Indian meteorological department (IMD) said in its latest bulletin. The cyclone would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours with a wind speed of 175-185 kmph and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by 12 October night, the bulletin said.
 
Odisha was likely to experience rain and thundershower at many places and heavy rainfall at one or two places in the state in the next 12 hours, it said. Odisha government issued a high alert and cancelled the Dusshera holidays of employees in 14 districts with chief minister Naveen Patnaik asking collectors to ensure the safety of the people. The alert was issued to Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Jajpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts.
Appealing to the people not to panic, revenue minister Surya Narayan Patro said it was decided to deploy the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force teams in the 14 districts from Thursday.
 
Earlier, the state government had asked the Union home ministry to keep helicopters ready for rescue and relief operations.
Special relief commissioner P.K. Mohapatra said the authorities were asked to stock up on food and relief materials at cyclone shelters. Stating that all district collectors have been provided satellite phones so that they could remain in touch with the government, he said that mobile service providers were asked to ensure that towers were repaired immediately in case of damage in the cyclone.
 
Distant Cautionary Signal Number One (DC-I) was replaced by Distant Warning Signal Number Two (DW-II) at Paradip and Gopalpur ports. Fishermen in the deep sea were asked to return to the coast immediately. “Sea will be rough to very rough after 12 hours,†the bulletin added. Official sources said the cyclone situation was likely to be discussed at a cabinet meeting scheduled here for Thursday. Meanwhile, people living in the coastal region have started panic buying of essential items

 

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Phailin has bombed this afternoon. Winds are now at a 100kts according to JTWC, though I think the estimats is a little conservative. 100kts is cat 3 on the SS scale. With nothing to stop Phailin strengthening over the next couple days as it treks toward India, cat 4 is very likely, and cat 5 is possible. I really hope India are as prepared as they can be for this- but I think this storm is going to be devastating.

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This has got to be a cat 4, at least:

 

post-1820-0-92323300-1381431518_thumb.jp

 

 

What a beauty! I just wish it wasn't where it was. The rapid intensification of this thing has been incredible.

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The latest ADT estimates based on satellite interpretation are stunning :

917.5 (mb)
146.0 (270 km/h)

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That is a devastating system, completely echo the thoughts there SS really hope they have taken warnings seriously.

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JTWC have now upped the winds to 125kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. The eye remains well defined. Low shear, radial outflow and high ocean heat content means that Phailin probably has not finished strengthening yet.

 

JTWC were slow on the uptake and lagged behind Phailin's true strength through today. However, India Meteorological Department have handled Phailin very badly in my opinion, and are nothing short of a complete joke. 90kts? Even using the 3 min sustained windspeed (JTWC uses 1 minute), that is a gross underestimation of Phailin's strength. Hopefully they soon recognise this and the people of India can be properly warned. As I said, JTWC were slow but at least they are near the mark now. It is scary because IMD are the official forecasting agency for this basin, not JTWC.

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ADT estimates keep getting stronger. It's just an estimate based on imagery but now at 910mb and and 281 km/h. You'd imagine the storm surge will be a huge concern with something this intense and large....

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 If the ADT estimate were to be correct, then Phailin would be the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the North Indian Basin. Odisha (1999) was 912mb and had winds of 260 km/h.

 

Posted Image

Edited by radiohead

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ADT estimates keep getting stronger. It's just an estimate based on imagery but now at 910mb and and 281 km/h. You'd imagine the storm surge will be a huge concern with something this intense and large....

 

Where can you see the ADT information Radiohead, do you have a link for that?

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Thanks radiohead. Still 910.7. 70.8 mb drop in 24 hrs, 2200 - 2200 10/10. Massive Bomb.

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Just look at the surrounding moisture, she's so beautiful.

If a state of emergency has not been declared then it should be, the impact of this will be catastrophic.

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Twitter wakening up now and more and more posts going up instantly.

 

Dr Maue comparing intensity to Katrina and storm surge will be devastating.  The size of this system on that global satellite image is unreal.

 

post-7292-0-15074000-1381446376_thumb.jppost-7292-0-13832600-1381446381_thumb.gipost-7292-0-25137800-1381446483_thumb.jp

 

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JTWC still underestimating Phailin's intensity IMO. They have Phailin at 135kts, just shy of cat 5. I think this thing attained that title a while ago. JTWC do forecast Phailin to become a cat 5 on the SS scale prior to landfall. As for IMD, they are still doing a terrible job,  putting Phailin at 105kts with a central pressure of 955mb! What a joke!

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Tropical Cyclone Phailin has intensified rapidly in the Bay of Bengal and is headed for the northeast coast of India.

 

Posted Image

 

Satellite of Phailin

 

As of Thursday night (U.S. time), Phailin was rated as the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Phailin is forecast to make landfall along the coast of the state of Odisha or the northern Andrha Pradesh state, northeast of the town of Visakhapatnam in India, on Saturday. The cyclone is forecast to approach the coast as the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane.

 

This portion of the India coast where Phailin is headed will likely be threatened by storm surge flooding, damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The northeast Indian coast is extremely prone to storm surge flooding, which makes this particular impact a huge concern for low-lying areas. Many of the world's deadliest tropical cyclones have come from the Bay of Bengal because of the region's extreme vulnerability to storm surge flooding. This includes portions of northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-cyclone-phailin-20131010

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast

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After undergoing an eyewall replacement this morning, Phailin is strengthening again with more time over warm waters still to go before landfall.

 

Latest ADT estimates : 919mb, 140 knots, cloud tops -83.6.

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'Fishermen have been asked not to go out to sea ' reports the BBC ! It makes me wonder why the effort to save lives in advance of an obvious catastrophe is so underplayed ...thousands will almost certainly die unnecessarily over the next few days .  As with Katrina ,'no expense' will be spared cleaning up the devastated lives of those left . We live in a world of very confused priorities !!

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Yes looks like this will be a big killer unfortunately.

 

GFS has it making landfall around noon on Saturday European time.

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

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