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Tropical Storm Narda

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After a lull lasting over two weeks, Tropical Storm Narda has formed in the East Pacific. The storm is located at around 13N 120W, well out to sea. Winds have increased to 40kts. Narda has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC, and some fairly strong banding features. As shear is set to remain low and waters warm over the next few days, Narda is expected to become a hurricane. Based on the structure of Narda and the favourable environment ahead, NHC's forecast peak of 70kts could be a little conservative, though based on the behaviour of the previous storms in this basin this year, it may well be near. Narda will not affect land as it takes a typical west-northwestward track over the coming days. In a few days time, shear will rise significantly and the storm will move over colder water, which will quickly weaken Narda. As the storm weakens, it will slow down and crawl towards the west as the steering currents are expected to collapse.

 

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013

200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.2N 120.9W

ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST. NARDA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NARDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/070840.shtml

 

Tropical Storm NARDA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

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At 200 am PDT, 0900 UTC, the center of tropical storm Narda was located near latitude 13.2 north, longitude 120.9 west. Narda is moving toward the west near 14 mph, 22 km/h, but a turn toward the West-northwest is expected later today. A decrease in forward speed should begin by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, 75 km/h, With higher gusts.
 
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda could become a hurricane on Tuesday.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb, 29.62 inches

 

 

http://www.wtvy.com/news/morningshow/headlines/Tropical-Storm-Narda-Forms-in-Pacific-226720361.html

 

No fast forward progress and nothing near land it appears so far.

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Narda has intensified quickly this afternoon, and winds are now at 55kts. The storm has developed a central dense overcast, flanked by strong banding. It won't be long before Narda becomes a hurricane.

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Tropical Storm Narda is gradually strengthening. The system is located about 985 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

 

http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2013/oct/07/expect-warm-day-today-chance-showers/

 

Tropical Storm NARDA: Current probability of tropical storm winds

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A Hurricane Narda 2013 projected path for Tuesday is prompting concerns for Mexico, and specifically Baja California. Tropical Storm Narda will become Hurricane Narda on Tuesday October 8, 2013, the National Hurricane Center tells news moments ago. But how close will Narda reach Mexico with hurricane force winds?
 
Hurricane Narda 2013 was spotted by radar this morning. Narda is currently one thousand miles southwest of Baja’s southern tip. Narda is moving roughly fifteen miles per hour. No watches or warnings remind in place, NHC tells news.
 
The National Hurricane Center in their latest news update Monday indicates that the center of Tropical Storm Narda is moving toward the west-northwest. “This motion with a significant decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of daysâ€, reps indicate to news.
 
Narda will become a hurricane tomorrow. “Additional stretching is forecast during the next 48 hours and Narda is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesdayâ€. Narda is carrying strong winds which are currently extending roughly sixty miles outward today. Narda on Tuesday will become the only current active hurricane striking North America. A further news advisory is set for later today and Tuesday morning.

 

 

http://news.lalate.com/2013/10/07/hurricane-narda-2013-projected-path-for-tuesday-strikes-mexico/

 

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Well, Narda has fooled us. Since I last posted, convection has been on the decline. Winds have dropped to 40kts. It appears that Narda has ingested some dry air, causing the weakening. Narda will no longer become a hurricane, and instead will weaken at an even faster pace once shear rises to join the dry air to kill Narda.

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Well, Narda has fooled us. 

 

 

Tropical Storm Narda kept losing strength Tuesday as it moved in the Pacific well off the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, weather forecasters said. Narda, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, was about 1,225 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 13 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 p.m. PDT advisory.
 
No coastal watches or warnings were in effect. Forecasters said Narda was forecast to decrease in forward speed later Tuesday and move slowly westward by Wednesday afternoon. Narda was expected to weaken during the next 48 hours and become a tropical depression by Wednesday. Tropical storm-force winds extended as far as 35 miles outward from Narda's center.

 

 

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Narda is now a 25kt tropical depression. The LLCC became completely exposed overnight, and it looked like NHC were going to issue the final advisory this afternoon, but a small cell of convection has flared south of the LLCC, thus prolonging Narda's life a little longer. However, as shear and dry air continue to affect Narda, the depression is not long for this world.

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it looked like NHC were going to issue the final advisory this afternoon, but a small cell of convection has flared south of the LLCC, thus prolonging Narda's life a little longer. 

 

000WTPZ34 KNHC 100232TCPEP4BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013...NARDA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTSWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.5N 128.7WABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDAWAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST. THEDEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHTOR ON THURSDAY.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------NONE.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

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Tropical Depression NARDA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 45 hours lead

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