scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Buriedundersnow]

Dunno about this either, but worth a  read:

 

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=1073

 

nice find

 

 

If you step away from your screen and then look at those thumbnails of the Northern Hemisphere then one important factor should jump out at you...where is the Polar Vortex?

 

off to Siberia direction and lets just hope it stays over there.

[Buriedundersnow]

heres winter 39/40 and if you think we have it bad think of this during war times

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=tHGHkUlYxQU

 

just a link this time wont let the video up

Edited November 22, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[mistyqueen]

Evening Peeps! Been really boring weather here the last few days, dreary and drizzly, nae sun and fairly mild. Currently 5.9 degrees. Nowt much to report, are we actually going to get a winter up here?

[A Winter's Tale]

AWT: If you're reading this what do you think are the chances for an ice day at Glasgow Airport tomorrow? The forecast is for freezing fog or mist until 12pm, if the fog's thick enough and it's cold enough tonight then you never know tomorrow?

Certainly a better chance tomorrow. Despite today's sunshine in Bearsden this afternoon it had look and feel of a near ice-day (a really fantastic day of proper winter sunshine and blue sky), today's maximum at the airport was 4C so perhaps in foggy conditions it may have been closer to freezing. Certainly, last night was one of the coldest of this year and within the top 5 coldest November minima in the past 15 years with low of -7C. Currently -2C at the airport so if skies remain largely clear and if the temperature is below -3C by midnight then I would suspect that in foggy conditions we could see one of the coldest days of the year. But I'm expecting the maximum to be somewhere between 1C and 3C.

[Buriedundersnow]

here you go CATCH I have put in 192,216 and 240

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Evening Peeps! Been really boring weather here the last few days, dreary and drizzly, nae sun and fairly mild. Currently 5.9 degrees. Nowt much to report, are we actually going to get a winter up here?

 

theres still the chance of seeing something good as there are still promising signs in the models main thing is we aren't zonal so we are halfway to a good solution already its just a case of waiting and seeing if we can get the push to finish it off and get heights to our north.

[Buriedundersnow]

Thanks BUS. Do you get the feeling that the models are toying with us? We're on the hook, they know it and they're loving seeing us squirm.

 

(obviously I appreciate that the models are just a huge interaction of lots of 1s and 0s and have no power of self-awareness)

 

it does seem like they are playing with us a bit and like u say they a just 0's and 1's but they still have some human input as well maybe its them screwing with us.

[A Winter's Tale]

A short northerly feed from the ECM at +216hrs

 

Lettuceing computer won't save the file properly....you'll have to go and see for yourselves

 

 

Looks like a wee running track between Santa Claus' house and Marseille

 

Judging by the 850s it seems there's a snail race going on!

Edited November 22, 2013 by A Winter's Tale

[balmaha]

I'm sure other people have warned you but stay away from the Port wummin This is neither the time nor the place for jokes about females from Port Glasgow, just stay away from them

 

Dunno catchmydrift..... i like port wummin.

 

was once in the port glesga  area and got 2 crates o tennents for the price o one  fae a local off licence.

Put the crates in the front seat and went to regent street in greenock for some diesel before heading home.

Gorgeous wee blond was fillin up next to me , leaned in ma passenger  windae ,  eyein up ma two crates  and said" fancy a wee bit o barterin handsome? fancy tradin sex for beer???"

gied it a wee bit o thought for a second and said " aye hen. what kin o beer have ye got?"

 

[Tom Jarvis]

Hi everyone

Bit cold outside. After 3 weeks in hospital my grandad has finally been diagnosed with vesticulitus

So don't know what they can do now and weather it is perminent or not. Hopefully he will get the right treatment now

[Buriedundersnow]

Dunno catchmydrift..... i like port wummin.

 

was once in the port glesga  area and got 2 crates o tennents for the price o one  fae a local off licence.

Put the crates in the front seat and went to regent street in greenock for some diesel before heading home.

Gorgeous wee blond was fillin up next to me , leaned in ma passenger  windae ,  eyein up ma two crates  and said" fancy a wee bit o barterin handsome? fancy tradin sex for beer???"

gied it a wee bit o thought for a second and said " aye hen. what kin o beer have ye got?"

 

 

       

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ok, that didn't work (tried to embed BUS' vid but failed).

 

Deleted.

Edited November 22, 2013 by scottish skier

[Buriedundersnow]

ok, that didn't work (tried to embed BUS' vid but failed).

 

Deleted.

 

 

what do you mean

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

what do you mean

 

You didn't manage to embed the video earlier. Looked like a link format problem. Had 'https' (secure connection) instead of 'http' and other additional code.

 

I changed it to standard youtube just so it should appear as normal for folks to view directly in the thread. Didn't work and no idea why.

 

I've seen the same with other videos in the past; even when the link is seemingly standard, NW just refuses to auto-embed as normal.

Edited November 22, 2013 by scottish skier

[Buriedundersnow]

You didn't manage to embed the video earlier. Looked like a link format problem. Had 'https' (secure connection) instead of 'http' and other additional code.

 

I changed it to standard youtube just so it should appear as normal for folks to view directly in the thread. Didn't work and no idea why.

 

I've seen the same with other videos in the past; even when the link is seemingly standard, NW just refuses to auto-embed as normal.

 

 

I think its part to do with the power saving for the site they probably turned the video thing off so they could put the names back at the bottom of the thread today.

 

I just didn't understand what you were meaning at first I thought there was a problem seeing the video but understand now.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Can someone explain what an "ice-day" is??

[Buriedundersnow]

I really hope next month we get some good clear crisp polar air over us because if this comet ison makes it past the sun we can get either

 

 

the biggest show in the sky in our lifetime which is something I would really hate to miss

 

or

 

they have totally underestimated the suns pull on it and it changes trajectory toward us in which case I would well be wanting to have a good view of the thing that's gonna splatter us.

Can someone explain what an "ice-day" is??

 

 

its where the temp stays below freezing all day

[Buriedundersnow]

I saw this on twitter and I know we have heard LS talking about warm layers and thought you would like this LS to save to your computer to help with illustrate to any new comers exactly what you are meaning to save you going into loads of technical stuff  

 

[Highland Snow]

Maximum today +4.6C so not an Ice Day OTR. Currently -0.5C/-1.6C.

[edo]

Liking the new mobile site for netweather .... Well done to the website team... Can now see locations and click more reply options for uploading photos.... Handy when we hopefully get some snow

[Hairy Celt]

Liking the new mobile site for netweather .... Well done to the website team... Can now see locations and click more reply options for uploading photos.... Handy when we hopefully get some snow

 

I'll field test it next week where I get one bar 2G reception when I'm lucky during the day. The Scottish gov't is spending vast amounts to get more of the rural population serviced with fast optical broadband, yet still lots of places where all you have is a landline (mongoose all reception) and snail mail. Support your rural population as much as the urban, I say.

 

Um, weather... a bit less cold perhaps, still just endless stratus... crap really!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I saw this on twitter and I know we have heard LS talking about warm layers and thought you would like this LS to save to your computer to help with illustrate to any new comers exactly what you are meaning to save you going into loads of technical stuff  

 

BZsVhB2CUAAP6Qj.png

Cheers, almost exactly (maybe even the same) chart as we got in our meteorology lectures for the differences in precipitation type.

I've certainly been enjoying the settled spell but unfortunately it looks like our luck may run out soon when the high sinks a bit too far south, allowing mild mushy drizzly nonsense over the top:

 

It is a, dare I say it, a pattern worthy of the era of modernity, but that's not to say that amplification can't occur - early December 1990, part of a composite winter on my forecast and more recently picked up on by SK for its shorter term analogies, is an interesting example of this. 1st December 1990 - not much doing:

8th December 1990 - fairly notable snowfall:

Both the ECM (posted earlier on) and the GFS (in this case the pub run) do try and bring in a toppler, although not quite as impressive a toppler as the chart above in many respects, but that high is going to be a rather fickle friend over the next fortnight at least, provided it stays around our latitude and doesn't drift too far east:

Signs of a strat warming beginning in Russia towards the start of next month too, which could make thing interesting combined with the limpet Pacific/Aleutian high. As others have pointed out, without these we'd be locked into a classic 'zonal' pattern but with the ridge causing temporary disruptions to the tropospheric vortex and also aiding wavebreaking into the strat (perhaps eventually building up into a more substantial warming) we still have hope for setups which, if they land in the right place for us, could be very interesting for snow and cold here.

The anomaly to the 20th was -1.1(below 1st-20th average) and with the last three days coming in well below average that will have been pushed down to maybe more like 1.3/1.5C below average. However, with the incursion of a Tropical maritime airmass early next week we're going to have to hope for a toppler to come good before the month's end to keep the anomaly in the significantly below average category.

[LomondSnowstorm]

By the way, here's a handy way to tell if it's going to be freezing rain based on the infamous Christmas 2010 'why the swearing is not big or clever (touché netweather, touché) isn't it white' episode where Catch woke up on Christmas morn, eagerly ran down to the laptop to check the radar, saw a band moving in, saw the temperature at -4C, jumped around excitedly running in and out of the house trying to catch a better look at the lamppost for the snow only to find rain falling, at which point he ran back inside, had an extended TOORP on the thread and then threw the Christmas turkey in the bin in protest at the unfavourable 'lower uppers' (or at least that's how it happened in my head). It's for Albermarle which is, stupidly, the closest mainland station to Scotland where soundings are done (I'm lobbying for a weather balloon in every settlement populated by a member of the kilted thread post-indy) but it's similar for the one Northern Irish one, if not more emphatic, and marks the point when we started using 950hpas as a definite no-go for snowfall:

The moral of the story is 1) don't ever bank on a technical white Christmas and 2) you can have a million and one factors in favour of snowfall but if just one layer of the atmosphere sneaks above 0C then you might as well have booked a month long cruise of the Med for all the snow you're going to see.

I'll do a sleet example another day (probably that gut-wrenching 2nd/3rd February 2009 event or the many horrible near misses of January 2009) but for now I've got a night of cricket watching before I head off to Glesga the morra for some serious student politics (meet for 30-60 minutes then hit the pub, basically).

Edited November 23, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Buriedundersnow]

that storys brilliant couldn't stop laughing picturing all that going off in my head that would be the worst let down ever 

Edited November 23, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

that storys brilliant couldn't stop laughing picturing all that going off in my head that would be the worst let down ever

It's pretty bad but in fairness the fact that it was December 2010 and we'd had a full month of almost nonstop snowmaggedon probably took the edge off a bit. Chuck that same story into a 'near-miss' winter and you've got the tragic tale of how even Christmas failed to deliver the only gift worth having - the gift of snow.

Edited November 23, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm