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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

     

    my original post from September and I have put it in as if we do get an early cold blast we will have to watch the ice in September as it cant be a coincidence with how early cold would come with early ice advance and could give us a useful tool at telling if we might get an early blast as early as September I will be watching this in winters to come

     

     

     

    Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:49

    CatchMyDrift, on 24 Sept 2013 - 09:38, said:Posted Image

     

    seems like a reasonable request to me.

     

    i'm gonna do some hard digging into things in the next couple of weeks as I know there has been some recent model updates going for early heights around Greenland and iceland and I think they might be on to something I just have a funny feeling we could get a 2010 hit again

     

    should probably add why I think that.

     

    I think our cold could be put down to early ice advance and snow cover and I hear all these people saying about this as concern to developing an SSW but I really think there missing out on something as I think the early ice advance and snow cover is what we might need to give the cold an early kick up the bum for it to make the travel down here as it cant be a coincidence that the two years we had really good early advance in sea ice more so than the snow cover is the two winters we had deep cold over the uk

     

    this year the ice has started its comeback already and we are way ahead in snow cover with good 850's forecast this should advance over the next week so we will wait to see how things go this year.

     

    if this turns out that we do see a correlation this could be a really good tool to try and gauge through September and start of October what we might see in the following winter.

    Edited by Buriedundersnow, 24 September 2013 - 11:06 .

     

    great stuff BUS and sounds as plausible as any other theories...... i guess i miss some good posts in my summer hibernation from here

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Evening guys, thought I would clock in for the winter season !

     

    Things starting to get really interesting, that GFS control run earlier was unreal.

     

    Here's to another cold winter hopefully ! Posted Image

     

    Welcome back - LOL nearly -40 500hpa temps on that Control run earlier..

    post-7292-0-25909600-1384469190_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    lol Posted Image they could form a support group................. the irony is she thinks this is pointless whilst her activity of choice is reading out statuses on facebook to me of people i do not know.......

     

    That's similar to what Mrs Catch said, she's going to start "her own thing". I didn't want to point out that the weather was started many moons ago by the forces of physics, not really something you can just start up yourself.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Evening all. Modelgasms on said thread again tonight I see! Certainly looks as if it will be chilly round the proverbials next week. Personally i always prefer if the snow thing holds off until December after a lot of cold, frost and ice days last third of November. Isn't that what happened in 2010? Anyway, I'm always a bit wary of snow around 19th,20th,21st November dates as  often that's about it for the rest of the winter! Hopefully it will hold off for another couple of weeks but be very cold in the lead up. That's just me though.  Who knows. it may be the start of a long, hard, winter!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Welcome back - LOL nearly -40 500hpa temps on that Control run earlier..

    Posted Imagegraphe_ens3.gif

     

    Aye, some of the runs have had them at sub -40ºC over Iceland and then moving south with the low. It could be a tasty little feature :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    That's similar to what Mrs Catch said, she's going to start "her own thing". I didn't want to point out that the weather was started many moons ago by the forces of physics, not really something you can just start up yourself.

    this really made me chuckle.......keep me posted on her thing Posted Image maybe we could start hobby suggesting posts for frustrated partners

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Check where the 528dam line is on the one..

     

    Lovely.

     

    post-7292-0-07829400-1384470029_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    the GFS 18z is a horror show again tonight but I wanted to post a chart to go along with my post earlier about the high sinking if it goes for Scandinavia and if we are to go down that route the 18z might have gave us a get out of jail card which would allow us to hit Greenland

     

     

    the arrow on the right is the get out of jail free card which in this run seems to fade but if we can see this develop and hang around it could stop the highs linking and sinking and the arrow on the left shows that we would have a chance of the high being pushed into Greenland

     

    didn't go right on this run but might be something to watch

     

    post-18233-0-95546300-1384470133_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    ahhh the blitzen gonnae no snaw on 19,20 or 21 November and ruin winter theory.................. I kinda agree with the too early theory but not so sure of the specific date cut off point :) 

     

    was november 24th we had first snow of the famous 2010 period but to be fair most of the snow then fell between then and early january with little new snow beyond that

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Check where the 528dam line is on the one..

     

    Lovely.

     

    Posted ImagePPVO89.gif

     

    Where did you get that chart, I can't find properly updated charts anywhere :(

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Where did you get that chart, I can't find properly updated charts anywhere Posted Image

     

    http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

     

    I like that link because they are time stamped and it saves my brain working out if am looking at the latest one or last nights !

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Outside the newsagents in Ladybank today I saw a lone snow shovel for sale.  Fingers crossed Posted Image

     

    We've had a big FSDU full of snow shovels at work for a couple of weeks now...maybe GP works for the UK's 2nd biggest supermarket? Posted Image

     

    Thanks Lorenzo for the link, it's been suitably bookmarked for future reference :good:

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft

    evening all, reporting for winter duties.

     

    looking forward to the next few months constantly checking charts and updates from those in this thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    ahhh the blitzen gonnae no snaw on 19,20 or 21 November and ruin winter theory.................. I kinda agree with the too early theory but not so sure of the specific date cut off point :)  was november 24th we had first snow of the famous 2010 period but to be fair most of the snow then fell between then and early january with little new snow beyond that

    Id happily settle for that again......more than willing to forgo feb and march to experience that 1 in 100 year event ...only a few years later!!Of course id also be very happy to experience a mix of 1947/1963 and 2010....although we may experience this along with it...post-18260-0-72310900-1384471150_thumb.jpost-18260-0-12434600-1384471168_thumb.j
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Id happily settle for that again......more than willing to forgo feb and march to experience that 1 in 100 year event ...only a few years later!!

    Of course id also be very happy to experience a mix of 1947/1963 and 2010....although we may experience this along with it...

    Posted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpg

     

    My memories of the 2010 event were of constantly feeling that we were missing out, it's the only time I've felt a bit disappointed when we "only" had 10 inches of snow. The day of the streamer was immense though, I must have photos somewhere...

     

    It was the 28th of November 2010, I do have pics but they've all got my kids in them.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    GFS pub run & Control run = more madness..

     

    post-7292-0-76102200-1384471873_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-73067900-1384471906_thumb.pn

     

    That's an early 80s January winter chart..!!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    My memories of the 2010 event were of constantly feeling that we were missing out, it's the only time I've felt a bit disappointed when we "only" had 10 inches of snow. The day of the streamer was immense though, I must have photos somewhere...

     

    It was the 28th of November 2010, I do have pics but they've all got my kids in them.

     

    It was a superb spell, utterly top notch, thought I'd have to wait years to see snow as deep as it was in 2009/10 (which was just under a foot I believe) but less that a year later we had way more than that (I think my depths were conservative because snow kept falling off the measuring table!). Day after day it pilled in off the North Sea, with the temperature nudging slightly downwards right through to the Wednesday when it sat pretty much dead on 0C the whole day, and the first time 'snow week' off from school in memory. Just an amazing time, everyone should get a week like that at least once in their life, and because of January 2010 (a rather different but similarly excellent affair) I basically had two snow weeks in the space of 11 months.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    It was a superb spell, utterly top notch, thought I'd have to wait years to see snow as deep as it was in 2009/10 (which was just under a foot I believe) but less that a year later we had way more than that (I think my depths were conservative because snow kept falling off the measuring table!). Day after day it pilled in off the North Sea, with the temperature nudging slightly downwards right through to the Wednesday when it sat pretty much dead on 0C the whole day, and the first time 'snow week' off from school in memory. Just an amazing time, everyone should get a week like that at least once in their life, and because of January 2010 (a rather different but similarly excellent affair) I basically had two snow weeks in the space of 11 months.

     

    The only snow week (or part week) which I ever got was in 1987. I assume the snow fell from a Forth-Clyde streamer, it was that really small fast snow which we had in Nov 2010. My sister and I ended up getting packed off to our grandparents' house, we were gutted as they lived in Bridge-of-Weir which didn't have much snow at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    yeah LS 2010 was a cracker for snow best I can remember apart from one year I cant remember which one was in the 2000's anyway where we had frontal snowfall which dropped around a foot but melted the next day.

     

    another 2010 or better would do me I am choking to beat my 2010 pics gonna be hard to beat these in SNOW SHIELD Falkirk area

     

    post-18233-0-61056600-1384474923_thumb.jpost-18233-0-17800500-1384474933_thumb.jpost-18233-0-80986200-1384474940_thumb.jpost-18233-0-16182600-1384474949_thumb.j

     

    probably got a bit deeper than the last pic when the front stalled over us but with nothing to do I got pretty mashed out ma face and forgot about taking pics lol

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    would be good to see some snow next week personally I wasn't holding out much hope as northerlies tend to be crap here with the highlands cutting everything off before it gets here but I suppose in November theres always a chance of something managing to make its way over if it was into winter theres no chance unless its a front.

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Absolutely doctor I too would forego 2 months for that type of weather....I'm not greedy though 3 or 4 weekends of sledging with the kids and I will be happy

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Too early to say, but keep your eyes on the satellite charts from Monday night onwards...

     

    I'd noticed that about the 500Temps too, didn't want to say much about it as it never seems to happen, although I couldn't resist mentioning them earlier on. One of these days we'll see a proper PL or two, in full glory on radar and satellite pics.

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