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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    A nice clear and sunny day here still on the cold side.

     

    Some windy weather moving in tonight, more less the whole of Scotland will see an increase in wind speeds but the Western and Northern parts are due to get hit the worst with gusts between 60 to 70mph possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    CFS or GFS !!

     

    12z going off on one...

    Posted Imagegfs-0-300.pngPosted Imagegfsnh-0-324.png

     

    All day pub session from the GFS today, rather than waiting til the evening.

     

    One of the irritating flaws of the GFS - overdeepening lows to the point where it completely distorts the outlook. All of last winter seemed to be a similar story, although occasionally the GFS would actually come out on top, but the number of times the GFS has tried to create extratropical storms that would make the writers of the Day After Tomorrow blush is quite something. Today it's managed to turn a standard northerly into some kind of mutant Braer storm except with a mid Atlantic ridge.

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    Cold dry sunny  day here frost lay all day in very shaded areas currently 1c clear with a grass frost.

     

     

    Going to see Aurora Storm on Tuesday in Edinburgh and was going to try and take in this ; http://www.rmets.org/events/forthcoming-meetings. Anyone else going?

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

     

     

     

    Going to see Aurora Storm on Tuesday in Edinburgh and was going to try and take in this ; http://www.rmets.org/events/forthcoming-meetings. Anyone else going?

    I wasn't - but now I know about it, I'm quite tempted… woud you care to work out some way of making ourselves known to each other, or will I just carry a copy of the Times and wear a red carnation in my buttonhole and look for the chap with wellies and a flat cap? :)Lomond Snowstorm or the other Edinburgh Kilties, care to make it a wee gathering? Sounds like a good talk, and it would be lovely to put a few faces to names! 

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Cold dry sunny  day here frost lay all day in very shaded areas currently 1c clear with a grass frost.

    Going to see Aurora Storm on Tuesday in Edinburgh and was going to try and take in this ; http://www.rmets.org/events/forthcoming-meetings. Anyone else going?

     

    Managed to get along to last months meeting, can't make this one unfortunately, work calls, off to Manchester to attend an awards gig, managed to somehow convince someone that I actually work when at the office. Cannae turn down a free bar and free evening meal, plus an overnight in a hotel, with no hungry baby waking you up at silly o'clock !

     

    Hopefully you all get to meet up, great idea, if it doesn't happen this time, we should arrange a date for all fellow Kilters to meet up and have a few ales and a blether.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I managed to make the last RMetSoc event but I'm not sure if I'll make Tuesday as my piping society's on then. I agree with Lorenzo though, would certainly be worthwhile having a Kilted meetup sometime, most likely in Edinburgh (since that seems to be roughly the geographical centre of our regular readership and the easiest place to get to)

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    not very good runs from the ECM 12z or the GFS 18z which is a bit of a worry but on a brighter note the ensembles still look decent hopefully its just the OP runs going out of KILTER a bit and they will come back into line tomorrow

     

    post-18233-0-69647400-1384129797_thumb.gpost-18233-0-29569800-1384129808_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    not very good runs from the ECM 12z or the GFS 18z which is a bit of a worry but on a brighter note the ensembles still look decent hopefully its just the OP runs going out of KILTER a bit and they will come back into line tomorrow

     

    Posted Imageensemble-tt6-london.gifPosted Image9.gif

     

    It's well into F.I. but the overnight ECM 00z is very nice for the time of year:

     

    post-2844-0-22845600-1384154964_thumb.gi

     

    post-2844-0-32407800-1384154974_thumb.gi

     

    Definitely a good bit of snow at altitude but that would be interesting for a lot of people Posted Image

     

    It is partly me hopecasting I think but the ECM and GFS aren't a million miles away from each other, the biggest difference would seem to be the GFS overcooking the trough over Scandinavia through the run...too progressive which takes the build of high pressure further north on the GFS and stops the cold air filtering in?

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

    Morning all! Back to dreich and murk today. Ach well, it was good while it lasted! Loving the F.I charts there! We can dream I suppose!

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Morning all! Back to dreich and murk today. Ach well, it was good while it lasted! Loving the F.I charts there! We can dream I suppose!

     

    I'm not sure it's dreaming, there's something cooking but we're not sure what it is yet. It smells quite nice though :)

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    overnight rain (heavy enough to get me dreaming of crows pecking at the velux), now just mild and cloudy.  there was an early frost as I drove up last night but all gone in t'north by mid evening, ee ba gum.

     

    Edinburgh not quite on my radar these days, Caithness & Sutherland making a bid for independence soon...

     

    Wait, breaking news! The parish of Melvich is the North's first independent city-state since the bronze age. Yee harr, go crofters!

    Edited by Hairy Celt
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I'm not sure it's dreaming, there's something cooking but we're not sure what it is yet. It smells quite nice though Posted Image

     

    Maybe my soup? I'm back in soup making mode now that the darker nights have arrived but a nice big bowl of broth tastes much better if it's cold and snowy outside. Trying to follow the models thread and such but despite the optimism in some quarters I've got the niggly, pessimistic feeling it won't come to much. Anyway, for November I'll be happy enough with a continuation of the snow over the hills to give a good base for the ski resorts onto which December's massive snow falls can settle. Posted Image

     

    As for this morning, no frost as the temp at 9am was around 4C. Earlier cloud cover has largely gone to be replaced with a mixture of maybe 50/50 blue skies and thin, grey clouds. Not noticed any rain since I got out of bed, but it is a bit breezier than it's been the last few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Maybe my soup? I'm back in soup making mode now that the darker nights have arrived but a nice big bowl of broth tastes much better if it's cold and snowy outside. Trying to follow the models thread and such but despite the optimism in some quarters I've got the niggly, pessimistic feeling it won't come to much. Anyway, for November I'll be happy enough with a continuation of the snow over the hills to give a good base for the ski resorts onto which December's massive snow falls can settle. Posted Image

     

    As for this morning, no frost as the temp at 9am was around 4C. Earlier cloud cover has largely gone to be replaced with a mixture of maybe 50/50 blue skies and thin, grey clouds. Not noticed any rain since I got out of bed, but it is a bit breezier than it's been the last few days.

     

    For me the biggest thing to take from the models is that there is space for a cold blast, it's not a complete shut out of westerlies or south-westerlies. The big picture is different from how it looked a week ago, the details will fall into place soon. I am not saying that there will be a cold blast, just that there's a chance of one.

     

    Edit: It's really sweet on the model thread sometimes, some people are still waiting for their first proper frost of the autumn. It was so cold here yesterday morning that when I sprayed de-icer on the windscreen it simply turned to slush, started flowing down the screen and then refroze.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

    That'll teach me to try and do things at short notice - looks like I won't make Tuesday's lecture either - I've been volunteered for family chauffeur duty...

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

    Much like yesterday now but milder. Plenty of sun and 13c in a light westerly breeze. Been a great few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    That'll teach me to try and do things at short notice - looks like I won't make Tuesday's lecture either - I've been volunteered for family chauffeur duty...

    Well you are a BMW...

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    The 6Z was quite a looker, with -8C uppers covering all of Scotland by Day 8:

    Posted Image

     

    and with it potential for a first snowfall for lowland areas. To be honest, as much as decent high latitude blocking is desirable at any time of year, the lack of any real continental cold means that a large number of blocking setups would be largely pointless at the moment, unless they were to be sustained for long enough to tap into the real cold. The exception to this is, of course, the Greenland High (which everyone in this thread should be rooting for anyway because it is by far the most reliable source of cold and snow for Scotland) but if we can't get a proper GH then the next best thing is a mid Atlantic ridge with an amplified jet diving southwards into the continent. Most of the charts I posted on here and on the MT regarding November snow and cold had nothing more than a mid Atlantic ridge and yet the most recent two at least were reasonably notable cold snaps with both falling and lying snow for many.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Just on the way back from pipe band so I can't post the charts but both the ECM and GFS are excellent runs if you like cold and snow potential. It's still very far from set in stone but these are as good as you'll get for November, barring a 2010 style early disintegration of the vortex (which looks unlikely at the moment).

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    See the climates hotting up on the model thread and we had a very pleasant dry sunny milder day after overnight rain and wind. Cows and calves better still out when its changeble but next week they may be taken in in a hurry. Thousands of geese landing in the surrounding fields and also a big flock of Whooper swans. Will try to lift a store of neeps on Thursday and Friday this week. Cats hugging the Rayburn tonight so nature backing up the computers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Just on the way back from pipe band so I can't post the charts but both the ECM and GFS are excellent runs if you like cold and snow potential. It's still very far from set in stone but these are as good as you'll get for November, barring a 2010 style early disintegration of the vortex (which looks unlikely at the moment).

     

    This.

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

    Posted Image

     

    Ramp scale? Probably small to medium at this stage.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

    NL - my wee one visited a local farm today, had a great time in the milder conditions - muddy on the farm but dry and not too windy.

     

    Definitely noticing a change in my chickens behavior - the 3 old birds are moulting and decided not to leave the warmth of the coop today! Most unusual for them.

     

    I had a lovely day in with a lovely cuppa from my new Aga Kettle Posted Image

    Edited by snowy owl
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    ECM is as good as it gets for the time of year, if we get anything close to it some people inland and at altitude will be happy :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    ECM is as good as it gets for the time of year, if we get anything close to it some people inland and at altitude will be happy :)

    Worth remembering also that northerlies/northwesterlies don't have the same issues with coastal mixing as easterlies so -5C is often good enough to do the trick (although with the obvious caveat that we'd still be likely to see daytime melting with those kinds of temperatures).
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