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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    a few on the GEFS 12z for central areas dipping below the magic -5 line

     

    post-18233-0-57868000-1384020351_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    Woah,really didnt expect to be scraping my car window at 6 oclock this evening.Temp down to zero....ground very wet from todays rain.Potential for some seriously dangerous conditions out there.

    If your going out driving....please take care!! Its going ti be very icy later on

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    If your going out driving....please take care!! Its going ti be very icy later on

     

    Oh cool.Posted Image

     

    Oh crap - had a couple of beers already so Leon staying in the drive.

     

     

    0.1 °C

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    A very cold day but mostly dry.Was up the Spey valley at a farm sale today car said it was only 2c at 1.00pm.Cairngrms ski area was looking very  white but  with a bit of cloud cover.post-2744-0-67831400-1384025457_thumb.jp

     

    Crystal clear air over the Firth in the middle of the afternoon showed up the cliffs at Dunbeath which must be at least 40 miles away as the crow flies. 4c maximum temperature today currently 2c with cloud cover.post-2744-0-80824200-1384025431_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)

    Just been oot for a walk, and can confirm it is baltic. Everywhere iced over nicely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

    Coldest day since late March with a maximum of 6C - more like winter than early November. Already 8 days with the temperature failing to reach 10C:

     

    Looking at recent years with single-figure maxima during the first 10 days of November:

    2012 - 7

    2011 - 2

    2010 - 6

    2009 - 6

    2008 - 5

    2007 - 0

    2006 - 2

    2005 - 0

    2004 - 0

    2003 - 1

    2002 - 3

    2001 - 2

    2000 - 8

     

    A pretty good start to November this year - making up for the lack of cold conditions earlier in the autumn. A fairly traditional start too with plenty of changeable conditions offering a mix of sunshine, showers, cool, fresh days and clear, crisp nights - which has been enjoyable. Good to hear that there has been enough snow on the Cairngorm mountain for an early start to 2013/2014 skiing season. 

     

    Just now it is a really cold, crisp November evening - absolutely clear and calm after some wonderful pale colours earlier in the twilight. Already -2C at the airport so a cold night is on the cards with a subsequent calm, clear, cold but bright start to Remembrance Sunday. Again, daytime temperatures should struggle but increasing cloud cover then rain from a front should see the temperatures rise - followed by a mild Monday with clearer conditions spreading from the NW. Tuesday should see a return to cool, fresh, showery air . I suspect around the 10th-15th, we should see a mixture of frontal, mild, cool, showery and settled conditions with mid-atlantic anti-cyclones moving east - slowly making progress further north - into Europe. We've had a cool start and at the moment there's no indication of any prolonged mild spell on the horizon - instead, there is a continued frequency for cool, changeable spells and there are hints of some potentially more interesting cold spells during a time when we traditionally see the coldest of the November weather. We are a long way from a November 2010 spell (although that possibility isn't a million miles away) but given the current theme across the models, there should be a number of shots at cold spells given the influence of the mid-atlantic high. They could be fleeting, but nevertheless, it should continue the cool theme to our weather and if things materialise nicely then we could be offered the first 'significant' cold spell of the winter that could deliver snow to some parts. 

     

    The models show the MAH wanting to move northwards.

    Posted Image

    The above chart however is an example of how brief cool spells is a likelyhood, BUT, the high pressure makes northward progress a bit to late for our liking as it moves into Europe. We need high pressure on the other side of the atlantic to be placed a little further north and then be pushed upwards. In that scenario, we could end up in a more than meaningful cold and wintry situation. At this stage, the likelyhood is such as spell would be brief but if high pressure could achieve a significant foothold over/or around Greenland then we could really be in the business. Certainly, where we stand now, model watching for what may unfold later this month will be interesting - the impact of the MAH in particular and the nature of resulting conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    think this is the first time I have seen the GEFS with no scatter

     

    post-18233-0-35893600-1384040309_thumb.g

     

    ignore that lol Posted Image Posted Image

     

    post-18233-0-65720400-1384042240_thumb.g

     

    theres the scatter and still a few dipping under -5 and even one going under -10

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    Live from Glasgow: black ice + alcohol = falling on my ass far more often than I'm willing to admit.

    Edited by Harve
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    JJ Frost has been on the rampage overnight, feeling like proper Winter oot there this morning. Didn't quite make it to the 3am Ice skating session though. 

     

    Charts to match too ! 

    post-7292-0-04289800-1384072969_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-19525900-1384073212_thumb.pn

     

    GFS determined to deliver a Greenland high, will it still be the same at 12z....?? Mixed solutions across this theme from GEFS, GEM and the ECM out at day 10, so plenty of model watching between now and the 20th to see how the strength of this ridging and warm air advection turns out.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

    Morning all! Temp got down to 1.4 here last night and it's a gorgeous crisp and clear day. Long may it continue!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Morning.  Lovely morning here also. Currently 1.1c after an overnight low of  - 0.5c and hardly any wind. Sun has melted most of the frost but still there in the shade. Models appear to be leaning towards something more wintry later on in the month?

     

    post-1989-0-19417600-1384075999.txt

     

     

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Just had a quick drive (Posted Image officer) to town and can report temps recovering from freezing quickly in the sun. Splendid views westwards from Kessock bridge to hills with snow down to the treeline.  Back to work now malheureusement Posted Image.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

    On the way back from Glasgow where it was a frosty start. Clear blue sunny skies. Lovely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

    Can report the same from here too! Clear blue sky and sunshine after a hard frost first thing. 

     

    Thanks for the updates AWT, LS, Lorenzo, BUS - I shall away and have a gander at the old charts this morning then. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)

    Beautiful clear crisp winters day. Oot the sun freezing, but nice in the sun.

    Posted Image

     

     

    Lorenzo if you want skating, my deck oot back is very slick with ice still holding firm.

    Edited by Cheggers
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Beautiful clear crisp winters day. Oot the sun freezing, but nice in the sun.

     

    Lorenzo if you want skating, my deck oot back is very slick with ice still holding firm.

     

    Much the same here Cheggers, took a wander out to the local shop around 8pm last night and nearly fell on my airse a few times.

     

    Not got a weather station of any kind, but it was cold enough to freeze the wheely bin lid shut, which I guess is -2 / -3 overnight.

     

    Still looks frosty out there, Atlantic action inbound.

     

    http://meteocentre.com/sat/get_sat.php?map=_vis&anim=1&area=uk〈=en

     

    post-7292-0-82426400-1384095573_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-77249400-1384095579_thumb.gipost-7292-0-29240400-1384095645_thumb.gi

     

    From the Hi Res Satellite, snow cover extent on the mountains looking amazing.

    post-7292-0-24386200-1384096193_thumb.jp

     

    Here's another site to play around with Meteogram comparisons.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Aberdeen&mod=compar&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=UK

    Edited by lorenzo
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    LORENZO do u think we have any outside chance of some front end snow with this front tonight as it meets the cold air

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Temperature just plummeted from 9'C to 3'C in the space of an hour - feeling like a true late autumn evening out there!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    LORENZO do u think we have any outside chance of some front end snow with this front tonight as it meets the cold air

    I think it's unlikely (I know I'm not LorenzoPosted Image ) as we have a pretty standard warm front, so we'll see a good 2-3 hours where the upper air temperatures rise and cloud cover enchroaches before we see anything falling out of the sky. Take midnight for example - uppers already above 0C for most of the country:

    Posted Image

     

    950s not *as* bad but not really screaming snow:

    Posted Image

     

    Cloud cover already around 100%:

    Posted Image

     

    and a sea of very mild dew points awaiting us:

    Posted Image

     

    And with precipitation only just working its way into western parts:

    Posted Image

     

    Had the cold been a bit better entrenched it might have been different, because the surface winds aren't unhelpful, and it could be pretty icey rain for a while at surface level, but the Atlantic's taking no prisoners this evening so unfortunately snow is pretty much out of the question other than transient stuff above about 500m:

    Posted Image

     

    Fortunately, this gives us another crack of the whip very quickly afterwards as the cold front brings the cold uppers back at us from the northwest:

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    cheers LS Posted Image

     

    was just a thought as it was around this time last winter we started to see front end snow when the temps dropped off.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    I think it's unlikely (I know I'm not LorenzoPosted Image ) as we have a pretty standard warm front, so we'll see a good 2-3 hours where the upper air temperatures rise and cloud cover enchroaches before we see anything falling out of the sky. Take midnight for example - uppers already above 0C for most of the country:

     

     

    Just to save Buried any confusion, am not Lorenzo either.. Posted Image

    Totally agree with LSorenzos post above, flipping from the Winter Side of November back to the Autumnal. Rain Today already loaded over Ireland..

    post-7292-0-13074600-1384099875_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    cheers LS Posted Image

     

    was just a thought as it was around this time last winter we started to see front end snow when the temps dropped off.

     

    Yeah, it'll come soon enough, but the classic front edge snowfalls have a wall of cold air and a block waiting to oppose the front. At the moment, you don't have either of those really:

    Posted Image

     

    Unlike this:

    Posted Image

     

    Anyway, speaking of walls of cold, the latest CFS for February is one of the scariest runs you'll ever see for cold potential and basically sees a pseudo polar vortex setting up over central Scandinavia causing some really weird and wonderful setups to develop, like this:

    Posted Image

     

    or this:

    Posted Image

     

    -6C maxima for the West Midlands?:

    Posted Image

     

    And sub -28C in Oslo at 6pm:

    Posted Image

     

    For the month as a whole, a sub 0C Scottish mean, a sub 0C CET and the return of the polar bears to urban Scandinavia:

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    CFS or GFS !!

     

    12z going off on one...

    post-7292-0-59418500-1384101507_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-78981400-1384101630_thumb.pn

     

    All day pub session from the GFS today, rather than waiting til the evening.

     

     

    Edited by lorenzo
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