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South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted

Squall line west of Swindon ATM.. Imminent on the next half hour to Newbury would you say?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

wind has really picked up here, just as the rain starts, expect it to blow faster when the havier stuff arrives shortly

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Inshore waters forecast, taken from the BBC website.

 

Lyme Regis to Lands End including the Isles of Scilly

 

Strong wind warning

17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct
  • [*]Wind
South or southwest veering west, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time. [*]Sea State Very rough or high, occasionally very high in far west at first, becoming rough or very rough later. [*]Weather Rain then squally showers. [*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.

And then for those in the following area.

 

 
Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol Channel

 

Strong wind warning

17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct
  • [*]
Wind Southwest becoming cyclonic, then northwest backing west later, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10 for a time. [*]Sea State Very rough or high, becoming rough in east later. [*]Weather Rain then squally showers. [*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.

 

 

Worth noting that these are issued 24 hours in advance so tomorrow evening's update will be even more revealing. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Squall line west of Swindon ATM.. Imminent on the next half hour to Newbury would you say?

 

Hi PB, it's very slow moving in actual fact, probably reach us by about 10:30 or thereabouts. Might not even be holding itself together by then. Prepare for a breezy night and a slowly worsening day tomorrow with the main event coming later tomorrow night into manic Monday.

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted (edited)

blimey, quite a fewupdates just popped up from Ian F on Twitter, would seem quite a serious storm bearing down on us Dorset coastal folk! as well as most of the region, especially those on exposed coastal fringes!

Was just thinking the same thing, i think i will be taking more action tomorrow now, make sure everything is in safe places! Very windy at the mo, dread to think what its going to be like, i slept through the last major storm we had!

Edited by Rapodo
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Charlton Adam snow Rookie

Charlton Adam snow

Posted
  • Location: Charlton Adam, near Somerton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, freezing rain, hail, thunderstorms!
  • Location: Charlton Adam, near Somerton, Somerset
Posted

Squall line looking pretty impressive - just about hitting here - blowing a hooly with heavy rain, I'm 3 miles east of Somerton.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

A quick grab, courtesy of netweather's v6 radar.

 

post-7183-0-74218500-1382818962_thumb.jp

 

Clocks falling back tonight, along with the rain.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Looking rather dicey on the south coast for Monday but I wonder if people further inland will feel this has been overhyped? I haven't seen a chart showing gusts over 60 mph once you get 30 miles inland - such gusts were very common in the 80s and 90s - nothing truly exceptional - and could it all miss us to the south anyway?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Looking rather dicey on the south coast for Monday but I wonder if people further inland will feel this has been overhyped? I haven't seen a chart showing gusts over 60 mph once you get 30 miles inland - such gusts were very common in the 80s and 90s - nothing truly exceptional - and could it all miss us to the south anyway?

I think unlikely,60 mph gust in general, and they've not been felt for quite sometime, certainly with trees in full leaf, take a look at Ian F tweets and he makes refernce  to speeds that will bring down trees, you may be surprised to find it's considerably less than 60mph. I would say it's pretty unlikely to miss us now also.

 

That's done it now, watch out France Posted Image

Edited by karlos1983
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lightningsprite Rookie

lightningsprite

Posted
  • Location: Tiptoe in the New Forest, south Hampshire
  • Location: Tiptoe in the New Forest, south Hampshire
Posted

Looking rather dicey on the south coast for Monday but I wonder if people further inland will feel this has been overhyped? I haven't seen a chart showing gusts over 60 mph once you get 30 miles inland - such gusts were very common in the 80s and 90s - nothing truly exceptional - and could it all miss us to the south anyway?

No.It won't miss us. Even if it moves  further south...and atm that is not happening...we will then get the larger amount of rain which currrently is progged to hit further north.

I'm fairly  worried...I  live in a park home (mobile home) three miles  from   the south  coast....Posted Image

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

No.It won't miss us. Even if it moves  further south...and atm that is not happening...we will then get the larger amount of rain which currrently is progged to hit further north.

I'm fairly  worried...I  live in a park home (mobile home) three miles  from   the south  coast....Posted Image

 

Perhaps try and tuck a friend up that has a house to stay at for the night, not sure i'd fancy staying in a mobile home tomorrow night.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

bloody watering can has just hit my patio window, and this is nothing compared to tomorrow, cant believe I left the watering can out after putting everything else away.Posted Image

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted

Ok.. It is pretty gusty now out there and I can hear that now. These gusts will be tame compared to tomorrow and so I am feeling slightly nervous being in my new house and all. So the noises will be strange to me. And yes this is inland. The only ever time I heard strong winds at night was yes you guessed it 1987. I remember waking up for five mins wondering who was smashing plates outside and then went back to sleep! Next morn Dad apparently was up half the night listening to it and tiles coming off the roof. He said he saw our old Christmas tree which was as big as the house almost bending in half from the wind. It survived as did our house but the tree got cut down shortly after. ... I digressed I know I am sorry but this does take me back a little.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

I won't sleep much tomorrow night either PB. I'll be listening to the sounds of the winds whistling through the trees out the back and to the sound of the roof mounted anemometer spinning madly around. As for fearing it, time will dictate how bad it actually gets but most folk should be safe if they stay indoors. If you've got to go out and enjoy it, fair enough but best stay concealed in a relatively sheltered position until daylight beckons the next morning would be my suggestion. Otherwise the debris will be very difficult to see if one is travelling back by car. Forewarned is forearmed as ever in these situations. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Author
Posted

as posted in the convective thread, there's a quite potent squall line passing through our region on the trailing flank of a cold front....passed through here in the past 30 mins giving heavy rin and gale force gusts.....a little taste of what's to come

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Copied from Storm thread

Updated and detailed weather alert just issued:

http://www.netweathe...rt-status;sess=

 

This the same link, not sure? OMFG is all I can say. Posted Image As I said earlier, better to be forewarned than not. This is still only a forecast, prescisely that, simply a suggestion of what may occur.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78272-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013-part-2/?p=2816769

 

Time for bed.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

as posted in the convective thread, there's a quite potent squall line passing through our region on the trailing flank of a cold front....passed through here in the past 30 mins giving heavy rin and gale force gusts.....a little taste of what's to come

 

My 2230hrs prediction for Newbury is looking good. Posted Image

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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

The wording from the Met Office local forecast for south-west England

 

Headlines reads:

Damaging winds Sunday night and Monday morning.

 

Think it's time to go into storm prep mode

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been the most changable throughout this period. It hasn't ever seemed to have a real grip on where it will be going, or the intensity. Watching to see if the other models follow suit will be very interesting indeed.

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted

I wonder what the met office thoughts are on the latest GFS? Confused like the rest of us I expect! Posted Image

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