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South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

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This might be a useful guide as to what can do what over the coming days;

post-12721-0-91743900-1382786484_thumb.j

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Was that upgraded to a red on the event though or just before it was taking place unlike this one?This one would give people 24 hours or more notice ahead of the winds although I have to say even my workplace which is quite dangerous in windy weather, they would not pay any attention unless major destruction was occurring on site at the time.

It was before.Upgrade to red likely for some areas in this upcoming event but not until 00z output has been assessed versus actual imagery. Plus varied discussion with a number of key agencies.
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We have had a red for snow as well, that time when exmoor copped it 2009 I think?

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We have had a red for snow as well, that time when exmoor copped it 2009 I think?

Wasn't there a red warning in January for Wales for Snow aswell?

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Wasn't there a red warning in January for Wales for Snow aswell?

Yes - I think there was. Anyway, I can't wait to watch this one unfold!

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Was there not a red warning for the south west for the infamous snow event back in March which in the end went south and plastered the channel islands.....still get sleepless nights over that one Posted Image

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Quite a worrying event, more so with the current track of hitting southern most counties the hardest.

 

With the half term break in full swing, and lots of people heading for the caravan sites across the southern coastal districts, and if the warning did go to red, would any warnings be placed on the parks to warn or evacuate their sites?   Cant imagine a static caravan in 80mph winds is the safest way to spend some family time away!

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Quite a worrying event, more so with the current track of hitting southern most counties the hardest.

 

With the half term break in full swing, and lots of people heading for the caravan sites across the southern coastal districts, and if the warning did go to red, would any warnings be placed on the parks to warn or evacuate their sites?   Cant imagine a static caravan in 80mph winds is the safest way to spend some family time away!

Yes i got a young family member going to Rockly park caravan park, trying to convince them not to go! But they not listening, Crazy!

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I have to say I am a little concerned about this storm, being so exposed up here and all that, but pretty excited at the same time! Is there any more updates on the precise track yet?

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Not yet.. No, think it won't be until tomorrow that we know for sure. Forecasters seem to have track pinned down but not the severity for certain

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I shall be listening out for the wind.The sky dish is at the western end of my bungalow with an extended  mast..Shall get lashed by the rain as well.Here on a hill crest the only good thing is no floods.Though insured for nearby water course  in case one pops up....

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I have to say I am a little concerned about this storm, being so exposed up here and all that, but pretty excited at the same time! Is there any more updates on the precise track yet?

Likely to be the track currently forecast now;post-12721-0-00784400-1382793021.jpgAll models similiar in this track, just timing issues to straighten out now.
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Nope: using UKMO-GM almost without any adaption last 3 days as its continuity has been the best. Moreover it strikes median ground between recent EC and NCEP output. MOGREPS support good. NAVGEM never used in any analyses for this or other scenarios. JMA and ARPEGE are the key comparisons after EC and NCEP.

 

Oops, I'm wrong again, best leave things to the people in the know, then again it doesn't stop me trying. Posted Image

 

fergie, what's your latest advisory on the track of the storm?

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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We may well go through the same situation again next Sunday...

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I've been out in the garden creating props against all the fence panels/posts. They're likely to be obliterated to be honest, only a few years strong winds took them all out, they weren't even as strong as what is being forecasted for Sun/Mon. I can see many of posting on here about damage etc .. a busy day for the emergency services! Posted Image

Edited by Mapantz

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We live in Upper Parkstone, Poole.

 

We have friends who live in a small cottage by the Quay side on Brownsea Island. I've given them the heads up on this one but they're really not taking it seriously.

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I've mentioned the storm to a few people and they've looked at me like I'm some kind of weather freak. How rude!!! But they're right of course.

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We live in Upper Parkstone, Poole. We have friends who live in a small cottage by the Quay side on Brownsea Island. I've given them the heads up on this one but they're really not taking it seriously.

Same here, I'm doing my cleaning shift tomorrow night instead of 5am Monday, but my boss says it won't happen. Hmmm

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Quite a worrying event, more so with the current track of hitting southern most counties the hardest.

 

With the half term break in full swing, and lots of people heading for the caravan sites across the southern coastal districts, and if the warning did go to red, would any warnings be placed on the parks to warn or evacuate their sites?   Cant imagine a static caravan in 80mph winds is the safest way to spend some family time away!

in a  caravan  that  the  last place  i  whant  be  in  and  by  the coast  i just  hope the  people have  a  good escape  plan  they might need  it!!

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One thing I notice in these sorts of weather situations is that they often underestimate the strongest gusts. Quite a few times over the years, I heard forecasters warning of gusts up to 80mph only to find on a news report afterwards that 93mph was recorded somewhere (for example).

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We've had red before (for rain: night of the Beaminster tunnel tragedy).

We also had one (which covered me in Somerset!) in 2010 for snow, but that was very much a nowcast warning, because of the unexpected stall of the system!

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Any chance of Berkshire being heavily affected by the storm? I live by some very tall trees , and I don't want to be squashed in my sleep! :O

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Any chance of Berkshire being heavily affected by the storm? I live by some very tall trees , and I don't want to be squashed in my sleep! Posted Image

 

 

Absolutely!  We are in the zone.  I need to go and secure my garden furniture and anything else that may be whipped up as a missile.  I have a huge tree opposite me with quite a few dead branches so I fear for it's strength now. 

 

The fact that the trees still have most of their leaves is a huge problem as the wind doesn't whip through them like when the leaves have dropped.

 

Sorry, not meaning to scare you!

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