Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[smithyweather]

Or do you mean a North-Easterly? 

 

It would be nice to see some snow. We deserve it.

[nick sussex]

Looks like an early start to winter in Scandi,strong blocking over Greenland and Scandi trough. Can this type of pattern last till November or will it be a case of good synoptics too early. That deep low though does look a bit suspect on the GFS, with little undercutting of the ridge over the UK so perhaps that might change nearer the time.

[Tony27]

that always happens we sit there and wait whilst it looks like the GFS is going to give us a northerly and then the run goes onto to show the northerly imploding

[draztik]

GFS in tease mode.

[Isolated Frost]

Would be nice for tonights EC to continue its recent output of a slack N/NE flow into Scandinavia w/ very cold uppers I assume at d8 onwards; the domination of the HP cell seems to be the name of the NWP game at the moment, and the first notable retrogression and associated contraction of the Polar Jet of the winter.

Haven't heard the term 'WAA' in a while...

[Captain Shortwave]

No real cold on the GFS though.....

It throws and tropical low straight towards the slab of vortex north of the UK, now that would produce something very wild if that came off 

which it won't unfortunately

Edited October 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[The PIT]

Looks like Autumn may be actually coming. Should be pretty breezy down the east coast from Wednesday and really takes it's time to quieten down as well. As ever the detail may change but Autumn here we come. Deep FI tries to do a rerun of the famous October storm as well.

[nick sussex]

that always happens we sit there and wait whilst it looks like the GFS is going to give us a northerly and then the run goes onto to show the northerly imploding

If you compare what the GFS comes up with in the lower resolution on the 12hrs and what it pulled out for the 06hrs then you'll see that its pretty clueless. You'll often find it trying to prematurely trying to ditch northern blocking in the lower resolution. The only cold synoptic that generally has any chance of surviving from the lower to higher operational runs is northerly topplers, even then they get watered down in terms of longevity and severity.

[Summer Sun]

Snow tease from GFS

 

 

Given the uppers it would be marginal away from high ground

Edited October 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Second afternoon running that UKMO has been late in updating yesterday it was t120 and t144 today its t72 to t144

 

Anyone else not got it updated?

[draztik]

Second afternoon running that UKMO has been late in updating yesterday it was t120 and t144 today its t72 to t144

 

Anyone else not got it updated?

same here, hasnt updated on wetterzentrale or meteociel.

[Captain Shortwave]

If you compare what the GFS comes up with in the lower resolution on the 12hrs and what it pulled out for the 06hrs then you'll see that its pretty clueless. You'll often find it trying to prematurely trying to ditch northern blocking in the lower resolution. The only cold synoptic that generally has any chance of surviving from the lower to higher operational runs is northerly topplers, even then they get watered down in terms of longevity and severity.

Still considering it's the GFS, that's a great effort there, trouble is the models have energy moving out of the Eastern States which looks to inhibit the undercut. Probably why we haven't seen the ECM send all the energy under the high yet. At the least the GFS gets enough energy northwards to at least deposit some surface heights over Greenland and allow low pressure to push into Scandinavia. Whilst the northerly never gets going, it's just a case of hanging on in there and allowing the Atlantic low to push through the UK and then we would get the cold shot around the western flank.

The GEM isn't as good as the GFS and the high kind of just sticks around the Northern Scotland region, 

UKMO out and well again it's not exactly mind blowing

Edited October 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Timmytour]

I can't help thinking looking at the evolution over the last couple of days that, like the first cuckoo heralds the begining of spring, the first Daily Express Arctic Blast headline cannot be too far away.... 

Edited October 7, 2013 by Timmytour

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

 

The support for Partial if not all retrogression gathers pace as the GFS finally adds its support to the evolution that the UKMO has had for 24 hours ( with yes the 'neg' tilted trough) - & also the ECM had but just lost the signal at 192-

 

The forecast for the models is more of the same over the next 24-48 hours, the ECM will firm up retrogression tonight & expect the GFS to throw out some epic charts ( looking ) in the mix as well as its picking up the same signals as well-

 

remember WAA over Greenland & a negative tilted low pressure are the tell tale signs-

 

here highlighted from my 00z UKMO & the answer to the challenge-

 

 

Very good pattern setting up for snowcover development over Northern Europe.,.-

The UKMO 12z is very similar in trending & would see retrogression as well as a shortwave digging SE across scandi to pulse the cold SW from Scandi to the UK

 

 

S

Edited October 7, 2013 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

Still considering it's the GFS, that's a great effort there, trouble is the models have energy moving out of the Eastern States which looks to inhibit the undercut. Probably why we haven't seen the ECM send all the energy under the high yet. At the least the GFS gets enough energy northwards to at least deposit some surface heights over Greenland and allow low pressure to push into Scandinavia. Whilst the northerly never gets going, it's just a case of hanging on in there and allowing the Atlantic low to push through the UK and then we would get the cold shot around the western flank.

The GEM isn't as good as the GFS and the high kind of just sticks around the Northern Scotland region, 

UKMO out and well again it's not exactly mind blowing

It still shows heights rising over Greenland.I can't see the ridge sinking though because the step from 120 to 144hrs shows retrogression and so you would expect some energy to undercut the block.

[SMU]

Remember captain - just because a model has energy & an area of PVA doesn't mean to say its got it travelling in the right direction-

 

Going NE into the block can soon change to eastwards underneath or NNW around the block- OR BOTH!

[lorenzo]

WAA is closer detail, these from this mornings run, and another wee video loop to keep an eye on.

 

Ensemble & H5 Spread

 

Looking forward to the clocks changing, much prefer ECM rolling out at this time vs BST run.

 

 

[draztik]

GFS 12z, keen to bring in close to 3 inches of rainfall for East Anglia, accumulated from 0-180hrs.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Remember captain - just because a model has energy & an area of PVA doesn't mean to say its got it travelling in the right direction-

 

Going NE into the block can soon change to eastwards underneath or NNW around the block- OR BOTH!

Maybe you're right, my mood isn't exactly being helped by the 3 inches of rain predicted to fall here in the coming days along with a few other things.

Maybe my name should become captain pessimistic 

Hopefully the ECM will provide substance to peoples claims.

[phil nw.]

Just by running the meteoceil GFS 500hPa animation we can see how the developed Siberian vortex i mentioned earlier is shown to throw that colder air sw towards us in the later frames.

 

 

enhancing the onset of the early snowcover across N. Scandinavia/Siberia.

A little ahead of things perhaps but illustrates what could happen when the Atlantic jet energy heads under the block to our north. 

[Cloud 10]

Just by running the meteoceil GFS 500hPa animation we can see how the developed Siberian vortex i mentioned earlier is shown to throw that colder air sw towards us in the later frames.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png

 

enhancing the onset of the early snowcover across N. Scandinavia/Siberia.

A little ahead of things perhaps but illustrates what could happen when the Atlantic jet energy heads under the block to our north. 

 

Nice chart from the gfs.

 

I wonder what the chances are of a repeat of last year?

 

[Summer Sun]

It looks like rotten end to the working week in the south and south east with heavy rain and a cold wind making it feel awful further north its a different story with high pressure keeping it sunnier and cool

 

Of course if cold rain and strong winds is your thing then your in for a treat

 

Edited October 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100712/ECH1-144.GIF?07-0

 

& there we have ECM underpinning the thoughts from Yesterday..

 

Great for snowcover- Poor for warmth-

 

S

[Paul_1978]

I remember this time last year (I think) and we started getting some good charts from a coldies point of view, and a few people including myself said "those charts are wasted now, it's too early".

Others said, "Yes but it's nice to get the pattern in place".

And look at the winter that followed - a great one.

So overall I guess what I'm saying is that it's good to see these charts again in another October. Lets hope there's a common theme from previous years.

Edited October 7, 2013 by Paul_1978

[Frosty.]

I think it's great that there are higher numbers on here now we can look for cold with more confidence, I'm looking forward to the weather later this week, the scottish mountains and higher hills look like having snow by midweek. :-)