Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...

[knocker]

Graph showing daily Arctic sea ice extent since June 2002, 18.11.13
 

http://www.climate4you.com/

Edited November 19, 2013 by knocker

[Stu_London]

10,000,000 mark breached on IJIS (22nd November 2013)

 

The 6th latest date that this mark has been reached.

 

The years when this milestone was reached later are: -

 

23rd November - 2008 & 2011 

26th November - 2012

28th November - 2010

2nd December - 2007

 

So, whilst we a generally comparing a little more favourably than recent years, we are still quite a long way off historical levels. In fact in most years on this date in the 1980s and 1990s, ice extent had grown to over 11,000,000 sq km

[Interitus]

Those dates don't seem quite right, 2006 was the latest on 3/12?

This year is 7th - http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

For all the noise about recovery it's clear we're exactly where we were.

[knocker]

This is an animated visualization of the startling decline of Arctic Sea Ice, showing the minimum volume reached every September since 1979, set on a map of New York with a 10km grid to give an idea of scale. It is clear that the trend of Arctic sea ice decline indicates that it'll be ice-free for an increasingly large part of the year, with consequences for the climate.

 

[Jonan92]

Yeah, because the climate is linear....

[knocker]

Daily updated map of sea-ice thickness, derived from SMOS satellite |

 

and whole dataset

 

http://icdc.zmaw.de/l3c_smos_sit.html?&L=1

[stewfox]

This is an animated visualization of the startling decline of Arctic Sea Ice, showing the minimum volume reached every September since 1979, set on a map of New York with a 10km grid to give an idea of scale. It is clear that the trend of Arctic sea ice decline indicates that it'll be ice-free for an increasingly large part of the year, with consequences for the climate.

 

 

Thats shows the volume in September, you said

 

"""given its clear that we will see 'ice free;' for increasing periods"""

 

please post all the other months. lets see how much volume we have left in April or November.

 

One swallow does not make a summer

Edited November 27, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

One swallow does not make a summer

 

 

 

True but two swallows marks September which is the end of summer. Which is why I assume Andy Lee Robinson compiled the video for that month.

 

For a fuller picture.

Edited November 27, 2013 by knocker

[drgl]

Wow, that video really hits home how much ice has gone in such a short space of time. 

[Gray-Wolf]

True but two swallows marks September which is the end of summer. Which is why I assume Andy Lee Robinson compiled the video for that month.

 

For a fuller picture.

 

I think when we are looking at 'ice loss' then you'd go for the month which highlights the annual ice minimum? What would any other month show us? If August showed a trend for increasing ice cover but the september min still showed us losing volume which data point would be of most significance???

 

It's like the folk who highlighted the spring ice factory years as some kind of 'hopeful' sign for the ice? Maybe doing it for the 2012 spring will have cured such folk of this habit?

 

Maybe Stew is looking for 'ice melt' patterns and whether a thinning/younging pack show different behaviours over melt season or whether increased melt /river run off impacts the ice behaviour over re-freeze?

 

Maybe we need stew to explain what he meant though?

 

As it is the vid is a good way for folk who have little interest in the Arctic to understand the recent scale of the losses there?

 

It's just a shame we don't have a 1959 Ice block to highlight just how much ice went over that period ( from the period where sub data made it possible to have a stab at total ice volume in the basin?) Even if we took the lowest value as a start point it would properly show folk what any real 'recovery' would entail and not just some attempt to rebuild minimum ice cover from pre 07'?

Edited November 28, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice highest in a decade  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Edited November 29, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Arctic ice highest in a decade  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

I don't think so, keith...It was even higher back in April, May and June?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The ice has been doing well in recent days, but that's no cause for exaggeration, 2004 isn't even on the chart, and how on earth can you tell if it's above or below 2005 and 2008? Somewhere between highest and 4th highest in the last decade certainly doesn't sound as good though...

I thought you would have been all over that kind of misrepresentation and exaggeration, Stew!?

 

Anywho, on today's DMI chart things are looking better again and clearly above 2005 and 2008. On IJIS we've gained over 520k in the last 4 days, and NSIDC has jumped over 430k in the last 3 days.

 

Looks like Hudson Bay is providing quite a boost in the last few days and with the cold remaining there over the next 4 days at least, this boost may continue.

Elsewhere the gains have been more modest, the Atlantic side doing slightly better than last year, but still below average. The Pacific side meanwhile is off to a slow start, especially compared to recent -ve PDO years.

[stewfox]

Arctic ice highest in a decade  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

 

 

Great news

 

Even on the IJIS you have to go back to 2005, eight years ago to find anything like the current extent

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

 

Although some people will dig out a 1985 figure, it could be a lot worse.

 

Around 10c colder then last yr across the high Artic . Still waiting for the updated volume figure for October ?

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by stewfox

[Interitus]

Great news

 

Even on the IJIS you have to go back to 2005, eight years ago to find anything like the current extent

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

 

 

 

Look more closely, 2008 was higher at 10862395 than the current 10745557

Edited November 30, 2013 by Interitus

[knocker]

The latest 10,866,552

 

 

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice back to average for 2001 -2010 in-fact its back to 2003 level ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

[Gray-Wolf]

KL, please take a look at ice volumes for 2003 and then come back and tell us all how things compare in 2013 to 2003???

 

I know you're new to all of this but there are folk out there looking for factual posts about how the arctic is doing?

 

Ta!

[keithlucky]

KL, please take a look at ice volumes for 2003 and then come back and tell us all how things compare in 2013 to 2003???

 

I know you're new to all of this but there are folk out there looking for factual posts about how the arctic is doing?

 

Ta!

Even the ice volume has reached 2007 levels  even slightly above so accept good news http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b019b01346c64970d-pi

Edited December 3, 2013 by keithlucky

[knocker]

This one GW.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sea ice seems to have been doing ok recently, but for a little context on the NSIDC chart Keith posted.

 

[knocker]

4th December

 

Slow growth on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, Antarctic ice extent remains high

 

Ice extent in the Arctic was below average during November. There was substantially less ice than average in the northern Barents Sea, likely due to an influx of warm ocean waters and the persistence of a strong positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). In contrast, sea ice extent in Antarctica remained unusually high.

 

Overview of conditions

 

Arctic sea ice continued to expand during November, gaining 2.24 million square kilometers (865,000 million square miles) of ice since the beginning of the month. Sea ice extent for November averaged 10.24 million square kilometers (3.95 million square miles). This is 750,000 square kilometers (290,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average extent and is the 6th lowest November extent in the 35-year satellite data record. As was the case for October 2013, sea ice extent for November 2013 remained within two standard deviations of the long-term 1981 to 2010 average.

Edited December 5, 2013 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

Surprised there been no mention of the sea ice yesterday or today, are the US "sceptic" sites are busy with something else?

NSIDC extent is now just 11th lowest on record, and nearing the 99-03 average.

 

[4wd]

Surprised there been no mention of the sea ice yesterday or today.

Looks like continuation of the strong recovery as shown in your graph earlier

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like continuation of the strong recovery as shown in your graph earlier 

 

I wouldn't go so far as to call it a strong recovery myself, temporary recovery for now, until it lasts long enough to be clearly beyond the year to year variation.