October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Relativistic]

Surely the CET values don't personally affect as much as you're portraying?! A warm October, cool November and mixed Dec is how I predicted it in Sep; I think Oct may well be v warm, but Nov and Dec are the months where you actually want colder weather...I am disliking this weather though, mild, but cloudy and at times a lot of drizzle.

Sorry haha I get really stroppy about the weather sometimes. I was hoping that 2013 might come in below average but this very mild October may ruin it for me. I was sort of thinking cooler in November but now the models seem to be changing their mind on this. The models are by no means everything, but them changing nearer the time isn't filling me with hope. Edited October 16, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Isolated Frost]

Sorry haha I get really stroppy about the weather sometimes. I was hoping that 2013 might come in below average but this very mild October may ruin it for me. I was sort of thinking cooler in November but now the models seem to be changing their mind on this. The models are by no means everything, but them changing nearer the time isn't filling me with hope.

Furthest model (GFS) is only going to the 1st of Nov atm! I wouldn't worry, I think that there will be a cold spell and quite a good one at that in Nov, based on composites.

[feb1991blizzard]

Furthest model (GFS) is only going to the 1st of Nov atm! I wouldn't worry, I think that there will be a cold spell and quite a good one at that in Nov, based on composites.

 

Hope your right, I think your right even in that there will be a cold snap, im thinking it may be too early to pack a punch though, the Met only think any high will get as far North as being categorised as a mid latitude high at the moment though, I think it may end up an Icelandic high but not necessarily with enough cold uppers to smash the floodgates open, all conjecture at this stage of course though.

 

EDIT : this probably should go in the November thread, sorry.

Edited October 16, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 16th

 

1.5c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.0c to the 16th

 

1.5c above average

 

Min today of 8.2 and max likely around 16.5, so it should stay on 13.0 tomorrow.

 

Met forecast for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean then take it to.

 

17th 13.0 (12.4)

18th 12.9 (12.2)

19th 13.0 (14.1)

20th 13.0 (13.7)

21st 13.0 (13.5)

22nd 13.1 (14.5)

23rd 13.1 (13.5)

24th 13.1 (13.0)

25th 13.1 (13.0)

...

28th 12.9

....

31st 12.6

 

A bit of a late cool off perhaps but certainly its looking like a warm one. 12.6 would be in the top ten warmest, although after corrections it likely wouldn't be.

 

The likely range would be something like 11 - 13.3

[Methuselah]

That means I'll need a 2C downward adjustment! 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 12z GFS op run, the CET will be around

 

13.0C to the 17th (12.5)

12.9C to the 18th (12.2)

13.0C to the 19th (14.8]

13.1C to the 20th (14.3)

13.1C to the 21st (13.2)

13.2C to the 22nd (15.9)

13.2C to the 23rd (11.9)

13.1C to the 24th (12.2)

 

I'd put the likely range after corrections a touch higher than SomeLikeItHot, about 11.5 to 13.3C

 

[Roger J Smith]

If it finished on 13.5 provisionally, they would have to downgrade 0.6 to deny as in July, and I have 100% confidence that they would too.

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 17th

 

1.5c above normal

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 8.4C and maximum of around 15.5C, we should remain on 12.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET around

13.0C to the 19th (15.1)

13.1C to the 20th (14.6)

13.2C to the 21st (14.7)

13.3C to the 22nd (15.5)

13.3C to the 23rd (14.2)

13.3C to the 24th (13.7)

13.4C to the 25th (15.6)

 

I'd say a 50/50 chance of ending up with a top 10 warmest CET before corrections

[Milhouse]

Very impressive to see an already above average figure set to rise further and even more so that it's in the last 3rd of the month.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield stuck at 12C +1.8C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 18th

 

1.6c above normal

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 12.2C. Today's min is 12.1C, while maxima look like reaching around the mid 17s, so an increase to 13.0C is likely tomorrow.

 

13.1C to the 20th (14.8]

13.1C to the 21st (13.6)

13.3C to the 22nd (16.0)

13.4C to the 23rd (15.5)

13.3C to the 24th (12.9)

13.4C to the 25th (15.2)

13.4C to the 26th (14.0)

 

The record high daily mean temperatures for the next 7 days

 

20th: 14.9C

21st: 15.2C

22nd: 16.2C

23rd: 14.4C

24th: 14.3C

25th: 14.0C

26th: 14.7C

 

The 20th, 23rd and 25th look under threat.

[J10]

How many points is the penalty for being 16 days' late, MR...? 

250 billion.

 

(Serious answer no entry allowed after Day 3, is not as much fun. )

Edited October 19, 2013 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

I have expanded on that record temperature theme to include years and extend the list to end of the month. Just for contrast I have included record daily lows, an argument for climate change can be made at this time of year it would seem.

 

19 Oct ... 16.3 (1921) .... 1.5 (1813)20 Oct ... 14.9 (1795) .... 2.1 (1842) 21 Oct ... 15.2 (1998) .... 1.2 (1842) 22 Oct ... 16.2 (1906) .... 2.5 (1931) 23 Oct ... 14.4 (1998) .... 0.9 (1859) 24 Oct ... 14.3 (2009) .... 0.6 (1859) 25 Oct ... 14.0 (1978) .... 2.0 (1784) 26 Oct ... 14.7 (1927) .... 1.5 (1785) 27 Oct ... 16.7 (1888) .... 1.4 (1869) 

28 Oct ... 15.6 (1888) .... 0.9 (1895) 29 Oct ... 14.0 (1772 ..... 0.3 (1895) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. &1984)30 Oct ... 15.5 (2005) .... 0.7 (1836) 31 Oct ... 14.5 (1772) .... 0.7 (1836) 

 

(period of record is 1772 to 2012)

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Odds firmly on an above average month and well above average at that.

 

Personally speaking I am not enjoying this month weatherwise - aistream between west and south east has dominated and looks set to dominate, hence the mild temperatures.

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 19th

 

1.7c above average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 11.4C while maxima look like reaching the mid to high 16s, so an increase to 13.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.1C to the 21st (13.8]

13.2C to the 22nd (15.9)

13.3C to the 23rd (13.8]

13.2C to the 24th (11.2)

13.3C to the 25th (15.4)

13.3C to the 26th (13.0)

13.2C to the 27th (10.5)

 

At this stage, I think anything below 12C before corrections, and below 11.5C after corrections can be ruled out.

[Eugene]

Odds firmly on an above average month and well above average at that.

 

Personally speaking I am not enjoying this month weatherwise - aistream between west and south east has dominated and looks set to dominate, hence the mild temperatures.

 

 

Seems like it's just the two of this Damian, its an absolutely dreadful month here with very limited sunshine amounts, the mildies are trying to convince everyone that a June which recorded 193 hours sunshine in England & Wales with just over half the average rainfall is worse than a very cloudy October with high cloud amounts and rainfall frequency.

 

Its quite amusing the lengths they goto bending the stats around to fit their agenda.

[Relativistic]

I wouldn't say it's been dreadful around here, although it hasn't been a great month. It's way too mild, there has been very little wind, no frost and most of the leaves are still green. Having said that there has been a lot of thick, grey rolling cloud which I like watching while out on walks and outside. Today we had some decent heavy rain too.

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like RJS himself is gonna be the closest.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.1 to the 20th. +1.8 anomaly

 

Min today of 11.4 and max around 17.5 should see a rise to 13.2

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after give.

 

21st 13.1 (14.5)

22nd 13.2 (15.3)

23rd 13.3 (14.0) +2.2 anomaly

24th  13.2 (12.1)

25th 13.2 (13.8 )

26th  13.2 (11.0)

27th  13.0 (9.5)

28th 12.9 (10.8 )

29th 12.8 (10.3)

30th 12.8 (10.0)

31st 12.7 (9.5)  +2.0 anomaly

 

At this stage I think the likely range is 12.2 - 13.2 Before corrections. After corrections 12.0 - 13.0

Edited October 21, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Richard2901]

It's been a very cloudy, dull but mild month in NE England. The darkness on a morning has been depressing.  

 

 

 

 

One of the most depressing months I can remember. Any sun seems to only be late morning or afternoon and there's been little of that - less than 50 hours up to the 20th (~ 70% of average) with just 2 days managing 6 hours. Almost every single night has seen 100% cloud cover leading to horrendously gloomy and dark starts to the day.

 

Rainfall way above average - about 120% at the moment - and even when it's not raining it feels damp and unpleasant.

 

Only minima have been mild here with a 2C positive anomaly. Maxima have been almost bang on average so far and that's only due to the warm spell from 4th to 8th as the vast majority of days have been below average. Just 3 days between the 9th and 20th reached the average max of 12C and in all cases only just. More cloudy non-descript dross today and getting dark already under heavy overcast.

 

A truly awful month 

[Eugene]

 

 

 

 

 

One of the most depressing months I can remember. Any sun seems to only be late morning or afternoon and there's been little of that - less than 50 hours up to the 20th (~ 70% of average) with just 2 days managing 6 hours. Almost every single night has seen 100% cloud cover leading to horrendously gloomy and dark starts to the day.

 

Rainfall way above average - about 120% at the moment - and even when it's not raining it feels damp and unpleasant.

 

Only minima have been mild here with a 2C positive anomaly. Maxima have been almost bang on average so far and that's only due to the warm spell from 4th to 8th as the vast majority of days have been below average. Just 3 days between the 9th and 20th reached the average max of 12C and in all cases only just. More cloudy non-descript dross today and getting dark already under heavy overcast.

 

A truly awful month

 

 

Can't disagree with you on that, down here has been probably even worse than where you are, at least in NE Scotland you get some fresher sunnier airmasses from time to time, here they are like extinct.

 

Some people will tell you and you know who they are that its been a good month, delusional lot.