October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[BornFromTheVoid]

It looks to me like maxima a struggling today, so I think it's touch and go whether we reach 14.0C or 14.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.8C to the 12th (11.5)

13.6C to the 13th (10.5)

13.2C to the 14th (8.8]

13.0C to the 15th (10.3)

13.0C to the 16th (12.3)

13.0C to the 17th (13.6)

13.1C to the 18th (13.7)

 

14.4C to the 10th, gives us the 8th warmest first 10 days of October on record.

 

Yesterday was also the first below average day of the month.

 

[Isolated Frost]

Looks like being a pretty mild October unless we have an exceptional last 10 days.

3.1c above the average here in Durham; I'd imagine it's been one of the warmest first 10-11 days in history across the country, for October.

[Summer Sun]

We remain on 14.4c to the 11th

 

2.3c above normal

[DAVID SNOW]

We remain on 14.4c to the 11th

 

2.3c above normal

 

Strange, a mistake? ( not by you gav)

[BornFromTheVoid]

We remain on 14.4c to the 11th

 

2.3c above normal

 

I'd say it's a mistake, the daily data hasn't updated yet. To remain on 14.4C, the maximum yesterday would have to have been around 21C, which I don't think was the case!

[DAVID SNOW]

13.9 to the 12th.

 

 That's better.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 11.8C. The minimum today is 9.8C while maxima look like reaching just over 11C, so a decrease to 13.6C or 13.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.3C to the 14th (9.4)

13.1C to the 15th (10.3)

13.0C to the 16th (10.8]

12.9C to the 17th (12.3)

13.0C to the 18th (14.2)

13.1C to the 19th (15.5)

13.2C to the 20th (14.8]

 

Getting close to ruling out anything below 10C methinks. Just 1 below average day so far this month. We should get another few before things warm up in the 2nd half of the week.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.6C (13.65) to the 13th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

Yesterday was 10.8C. Minimum today is 7.9C, while maxima look like reaching the the high 10s, so a drop back to 13.3 or 13.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

13.1C to the 15th (9.3)

12.9C to the 16th (9.5)

12.8C to the 17th (12.2)

12.8C to the 18th (12.9)

13.0C to the 19th (15.5)

13.1C to the 20th (14.7)

13.1C to the 21st (14.7)

 

Must keep an eye on how things develop, as some daily records could be at risk. The record highs for the 19th, 20th and 21st are 16.3C, 14.9C and 15.2C respectively.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.6C (13.65) to the 13thhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Min today of 7.9 and I make the max to be around 11.5. So should drop to 13.4 tomorrow.Met Forecasts for 5 days and the GFS 0z ensemble mean after that would give.14th 13.4 (9.7)15th 13.1 (9.8 )16th 12.9 (9.8 )17th 12.9 (12.8 )18th 12.9 (12.6 )GFS ensembles would then see19th 12.9 (14.0)20th 13.0 (14.0)...25th 12.8...29th 12.4So model trend is curently on track for something above average although a big swing in pattern in the models like September could still change that. Edited October 14, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 7.9 and I make the max to be around 11.5. So should drop to 13.4 tomorrow.So model trend is curently on track for something above average although a big swing in pattern in the models like September could still change that.

 

 

Looking at xcweather, it seems your estimate for today's max will be closer than mine. 13.4C on tomorrows update the right call.

[Summer Sun]

13.4c to the 14th

 

1.7c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.4c to the 14th 1.7c above average

Min today of 6.5 and max around 13.5 so a fall to 13.2 tomorrow.Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that takes it to.15th 13.2 (10.0)16th 13.0 (10.7)17th 13.0 (13.4)18th 13.0 (13.2)19th 13.1 (14.25)20th 13.2 (14.0) +1.9 anomaly...25th 13.2 +2.3 anomaly...30th 12.8 +2.1 anomalyWith ensemble mean still pointing to temps 1.5-2 degrees warmer than average the running average is still likely to still drop towards the end of month, even though the anomaly might get bigger. An above average outcome still looks favoured, but still time for a pattern change to shift things, in September mid month the ensemble mean pointed to a end value around 1 degree colder than it ended up.Notably at the moment its the minimum temps that have been unseasonably warm. The max anomaly is +0.8

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 6.5 and max around 13.5 so a fall to 13.2 tomorrow.Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that takes it to.15th 13.2 (10.0)16th 13.0 (10.7)17th 13.0 (13.4)18th 13.0 (13.2)19th 13.1 (14.25)20th 13.2 (14.0) +1.9 anomaly...25th 13.2 +2.3 anomaly...30th 12.8 +2.1 anomalyWith ensemble mean still pointing to temps 1.5-2 degrees warmer than average the running average is still likely to still drop towards the end of month, even though the anomaly might get bigger. An above average outcome still looks favoured, but still time for a pattern change to shift things, in September mid month the ensemble mean pointed to a end value around 1 degree colder than it ended up.Notably at the moment its the minimum temps that have been unseasonably warm. The max anomaly is +0.8

 

Seems quite possible that we could end up with an October in the top 10 warmest for the CET record.

Top 10

2001: 13.3C

2005: 13.1C

1969: 13.0C

2006: 13.0C

1995: 12.9C

1921: 12.8C

1831: 12.7C

1959: 12.6C

2011: 12.6C

1968: 12.5C

 

If we are on 13.2C to the 20th (as both the 06z GFS and Met Office forecasts suggest), for the remaining 11 days, we'd need to average around

13.3C/day for joint warmest on record

11.3C/day for the top 10 warmest

9.9C/day to reach 12.0C

7.1C/day to reach 11.0C

6.3C/day to reach 10.7C (81-10 average)

6.0C/day to reach 10.6C (61-90 average)

4.3C/day to reach 10.0C

2.9C/day to reach 9.5C

 

With the GFS averaging in the high 14s for the 21st and 22nd, and nothing particularly cool/cold showing up on the ensembles, I think we can rule out anything below 10C completely, and say anything below the 81-10 average is looking very unlikely at this stage.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Seems quite possible that we could end up with an October in the top 10 warmest for the CET record.

Top 10

2001: 13.3C

2005: 13.1C

1969: 13.0C

2006: 13.0C

1995: 12.9C

1921: 12.8C

1831: 12.7C

1959: 12.6C

2011: 12.6C

1968: 12.5C

 

If we are on 13.2C to the 20th (as both the 06z GFS and Met Office forecasts suggest), for the remaining 11 days, we'd need to average around

13.3C/day for joint warmest on record

11.3C/day for the top 10 warmest

9.9C/day to reach 12.0C

7.1C/day to reach 11.0C

6.3C/day to reach 10.7C (81-10 average)

6.0C/day to reach 10.6C (61-90 average)

4.3C/day to reach 10.0C

2.9C/day to reach 9.5C

 

With the GFS averaging in the high 14s for the 21st and 22nd, and nothing particularly cool/cold showing up on the ensembles, I think we can rule out anything below 10C completely, and say anything below the 81-10 average is looking very unlikely at this stage.

I certainly agree with that. Before corrections I can't see anything sub 11 being likely, even with a cold plunge in the last week.

ECM ensembles certainly suggest something colder than the GFS eg.

 

and while its hard to extract an accurate CET value from the london temps (which are usually but not always 1-2 degrees warmer), there's no suggestion of any likelihood of the last 11 days averaging less than 7. Looking at them however does seem to make a top ten finish possibly a little less likely.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I certainly agree with that. Before corrections I can't see anything sub 11 being likely, even with a cold plunge in the last week.

ECM ensembles certainly suggest something colder than the GFS eg.

 

and while its hard to extract an accurate CET value from the london temps (which are usually but not always 1-2 degrees warmer), there's no suggestion of any likelihood of the last 11 days averaging less than 7. Looking at them however does seem to make a top ten finish possibly a little less likely.

 

Yep, can see where some of the difference is with the ECM and GFS on the 8-10 day comparison charts.

 

 

The GFS has a strong ridge to our east, with the trough out west, likely carrying very mild southerlies over the British Isles. The ECM on the other hand has a weaker ridge in Europe, with the trough sitting nearby and a much more zonal flow. 

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 15th

 

1.6c above average

 

If we finish above average this month it will be the 4 successive above average one

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a min today of 6.2C, and maxima likely to reach the high 13s, a drop to 13.0C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

13.0C to the 17th (13.1)

13.0C to the 18th (13.1)

13.1C to the 19th (15.5)

13.2C to the 20th (14.9)

13.3C to the 21st (14.2)

13.4C to the 22nd (16.0)

13.4C to the 23rd (14.2)

 

The ensembles show a slight cool down after that, so a finish in the mid 12s before corrections seems likely at this stage imo.

 

Daily mean CET values so far. Still just the 1 day below average.

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Don]

13.2c to the 15th

 

1.6c above average

 

If we finish above average this month it will be the 4 successive above average one

 

2013 is shaping up to be a reverse of 1993 where the first 6 months were above average and 5 out of the last 6 were below!

[Summer Sun]

2013 is shaping up to be a reverse of 1993 where the first 6 months were above average and 5 out of the last 6 were below!

 

We could even get an equal split this year if this month finishes above average (looks very likely) and November & December follow that would make it equal

 

January to June below average

 

July to December above average

 

So far March (unsurprisingly) is the coldest month 3.0c below average

 

And July is the warmest month so far 2.3c above average

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Relativistic]

And we were doing so well. Just when I thought 2013 looked as if it may stand a chance of ending up below average we have a run of above average months that look set to ruin everything. And the worst part of it is that October could well be a record breaker, and that's not in a cold way. We could quite easily break even with the cold start to the year by the end of this month. And I bet November and December will be mild too, to finish off 2013's chances of ending up below average. It's bound to happen just to tick me off even more.

Edited October 16, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Isolated Frost]

Surely the CET values don't personally affect as much as you're portraying?! A warm October, cool November and mixed Dec is how I predicted it in Sep; I think Oct may well be v warm, but Nov and Dec are the months where you actually want colder weather...

 

I am disliking this weather though, mild, but cloudy and at times a lot of drizzle.

[MR EXTREMES]

12.8 for me please

[BornFromTheVoid]

And we were doing so well. Just when I thought 2013 looked as if it may stand a chance of ending up below average we have a run of above average months that look set to ruin everything. And the worst part of it is that October could well be a record breaker, not in a cold way. We could quite easily break even with the cold start to the year by the end of this month. And I bet November and December will be mild too. To finish off 2013's chances of ending up below average, this is bound to happen.

 

Depends on what average we're comparing to.

 

If October finishes at 12.5C (joint 10th warmest on record), we'd still need November and December to average 3.3C above the 81-10 average just to get above the 81-10 annual average of 10.0C. So we'll definitely be below that!

For the 61-90 annual average (9.5C), 0.3C above for November and December will take us to 9.6C for the year, while 0.3C below will take us to 9.4C for the year.

 

With that in mind, an annual value within 0.1C of the 61-90 average seems most likely at this stage, so still a cool one by recent standards.

[Methuselah]

12.8 for me please

How many points is the penalty for being 16 days' late, MR...? 

[MR EXTREMES]

How many points is the penalty for being 16 days' late, MR...? 

well its worth a punt lol haha ooops can delete if u like sorry haha