Jump to content

Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->


Recommended Posts

Nice to see you back in the mild club for now frosty you didn't go to the cold side for long

 

t192 and t216 show no let up with the high pressure as it builds strongly over mainland Europe and the UK giving some warm southerly winds with any sunshine it won't feel like Autumn during the day it will probably feel more like summer

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

A big improvement on the 00z if you (like me) want to see this settled weather continuing

 

Posted Image

 

All in all Autumn remains on hold for those seeking stormy weather

 

T240 shows no let-up in sight with some very warm uppers for the time of year covering all the UK

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Image

 

Well if it was mid summer this chart and especially the next chart would be an absolute stonker. Unseasonably warm southerly coming up.

Pretty good

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

14C uppers into southern England, must be pretty rare for what would be approaching mid-October Posted Image

Thankfully the -5c uppers are only about 300 miles away.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest from Gibby growing signs of another spell of fine and potentially exceptionally warm conditions next week especially if ECM will have us believe

 

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday September 30th 2013.All models continue to show a warm and moist SE flow over the UK with weakening troughs edging into the SW repeatedly over the coming days gradually becoming more active and penetrative into other areas away from the SW by midweek with the occasional rain becoming heavier and more widespread by midweek. On Thursday a very wet day is likely as a thundery disturbance runs North from Spain and France up across the UK giving the chance of some disruptive rainfall in places. Once passed the weather will calm down as winds veer West and clearer and fresher conditions move across from the West to all areas by the weekend.

 

GFS then shows a drier interlude across Southern and Eastern England and Wales with some sunshine in shelter with temperatures on the mild side still. In the North and West a windier spell is expected still with occasional rain and a fresh breeze across the North and West. This then extends to other areas later next week as a series of troughs and Low pressure areas swing NE across the UK in more average temperatures. the heaviest rain and strongest winds will remain towards the NW.

 

UKMO closes it's run tonight with a quiet and settled end to next weekend with dry and bright weather with respectable temperatures for October. Only the far NW will likely see any rainfall. The night's will be chilly with the risk of mist and fog in the South.

 

GEM tonight also shows a dry and bright interlude in the South next weekend in an otherwise changeable run with some rain at times shown for all with the heaviest of this in the North and West where gales can be expected as well at times.

 

NAVGEM looks like the weather will be staying on the warm side with a light SW flow around High pressure to the SE. the NW will see cloudy weather with occasional rain while the SE could see some warm susnhine.ECM shows yet another quiet and generally mild spell coming up once we have removed this weeks changeable and sometimes wet weather. With winds becoming light and the air inherently warm temperatures will be well above average in places with night's rather cooler with mist and fog patches expected. As we move into next week

 

ECM goes one step further suggesting that things may become exceptionally warm with some sunshine in the South 

 

The GFS Ensembles show no real sign of anything remotely deep Autumnal with relatively mild and benign weather for the South in particular and nothing out of the ordinary for the North either. Apart from Thursday rainfall amounts will be relatively small with many dry days in the South.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow that's currently to the South of Britain migrating further North at the end of this week where it becomes persistent at a position crossing NW Scotland moving NE through next week.

 

In Summary tonight it looks like this week's push into more unsettled weather with some potentially heavy rain especially on Thursday will just be a blip as there are growing signs of yet another spell of fine and potentially exceptionally warm conditions next week especially if ECM will have us believe. Almost all models show at least a temporary period of dry and bright weather across Southern and Eastern Britain while the North and West look like seeing the best chance of keeping cloudy and less mild conditions with rain at times and perhaps strong winds too.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, we're now in the only time of year where neither very cold or very warm conditions are possible. Personally I like to keep it as warm as possible until mid-October, just to get one last feeling of something summery before the cold sets in for the next 5 months (except for last year when it was 6 months!). So tonight's output is encouraging, especially the ECM - let's hope there isn't too much cloud associated with this one:

 Posted Image

Polar vortex starting to get its act together

Posted Image

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, we're now in the only time of year where neither very cold or very warm conditions are possible. Personally I like to keep it as warm as possible until mid-October, just to get one last feeling of something summery before the cold sets in for the next 5 months (except for last year when it was 6 months!). So tonight's output is encouraging, especially the ECM - let's hope there isn't too much cloud associated with this one:

 Posted Image

Polar vortex starting to get its act together

Posted Image

Again the Polar vortex looks stuck over the Siberian side with modest positive pressure anomalies over Greenland and northern Canada. The Atlantic looks to remain sluggish.

CFS showing a very unusual set up for November today

Posted Image

I can't remember if I've seen a November dominated by heights to our north east

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a record October then? Never known a late September/early October so consistently warm. We haven't had a properly cool/cold day yet this Autumn.

Can't see Autumn like weather properly coming in until mid November.

Edited by Joe8987
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a record October then? Never known a late September/early October so consistently warm. We haven't had a properly cool/cold day yet this Autumn.Can't see Autumn like weather properly coming in until mid November.

Thats what i'm thinking too based on the way it's been going.
Link to post
Share on other sites

After a brief blip, the GFS finally gets the high in close to the UK

Posted Image

For the coldies worrying about these patterns, one question for you, where is the polar vortex? Not much particularly happening yet over our side of the pole hence the sluggish Atlantic pattern Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thats really good news CS... nice to see the vortex slowly develpoing over Siberia, where sea ice and snow cover is rapidly expanding...it can stay there and  lets hope down the line it comes to pay us a visit.

 

just for fun though, i captured this from the pub run earlier... its definately balmy in Siberia compared to Greenland Posted Image

 

post-18134-0-93039900-1380582370_thumb.p

Link to post
Share on other sites

Its a new month today but high pressure and mild air continues to keep its grip on the UK with ECM this morning showing little change at t240 a very deep low heads for Iceland whilst the UK remains under high pressure drifting over from Scandinavia

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The ECM ensemble out at t240 shows the high also staying keeping any unsettled weather away till at least October 11th

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO continues to rise pressure during the weekend and into next week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS also shows little sign of this pattern changing for a long time

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Its a new month today but high pressure and mild air continues to keep its grip on the UK with ECM this morning showing little change at t240 a very deep low heads for Iceland whilst the UK remains under high pressure drifting over from Scandinavia

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The ECM ensemble out at t240 shows the high also staying keeping any unsettled weather away till at least October 11th

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO continues to rise pressure during the weekend and into next week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS also shows little sign of this pattern changing for a long time

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

I can sense Frosty preparing his FONTS as we speak...Posted Image

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest from Gibby no change in sight for the foreseeable future keeping the UK locked in a mild and sometimes warm South or SW flow

 

Good morning everyone. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 1st 2013.

 

All models show the start of October the same as September left off with a warm and moist SE flow covering the UK. Troughs of low pressure from a Low to the West of the UK will continue to swing slowly NE across Britain weakening substantially as they do so. Rain could be heavy in the SW but lighter and more intermittent and occasional elsewhere. On Thursday it still looks a more organised and potentially heavy period of rain will move North across all areas before a change to fresher and cleaner air arrives from the West on Friday reaching all but Scotland through the day. Saturday then sees England and Wales dry and bright with sunny spells in the South and East with more cloudy weather in the NW with some rain or showers still.

 

GFS then shows the rest of the run with changeable conditions but with a lot of dry weather to be enjoyed. Northern and Western areas are shown to be prone to be cloudy at times with outbreaks of rain and fresh SW winds as lows and troughs swing by from the West while the South and East see much less rain and long dry periods under high pressure. Temperatures will sometimes be warm especially early next week and again late in the run though it will become cooler for a time perhaps with fog at night inland.

 

UKMO shows High pressure close to SE England early next week with light winds for all and dry and bright weather for most areas away from the far NW where more cloud, a slightly fresher SW breeze could give rise to a little rain here at times.

 

GEM keeps High pressure close enough to South and SE Britain to ward off most troughs and Low pressure areas meaning a largely dry and sometimes bright and warm spell is likely to be maintained in the South and East of England and Wales while Northern and Western Britain keep more cloud and occasional rain but even here some drier, brighter and mild spells are shown.

 

NAVGEM too shows a High pressure ridged across the UK from the East early next week with fine and dry conditions likely with just the far NW at risk of any rain. Fog and mist overnight could be an issue though in this profile with rather a lot of cloud at times trapped in the airflow so moderately warm conditions rather than anything exceptionally warm looks most likely.

 

ECM has reduced it's exceptionally high uppers shown in its midday offering yesterday. Nevertheless High pressure still arrives at the weekend and extends through next week with just a brief cloudy blip midweek when a little rain is possible, chiefly towards the North and West. Temperatures would remain very respectable through the period with no risk of frost and in fact temperatures could rise further by the end of the run as a warm Continental South or SE flow wafts up from Southern Europe late next week.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing remotely very wet or windy in the next two weeks with a lot of dry and warm weather in the South after this week. The North as usual do see some rain and occasional very breezy conditions but nowhere looks like experiencing anything nasty beyond this week with frost looking very unlikely as is widespread fog. Gales look very unlikely too away from the far NW.

 

The Jet Stream blowing to the South of the UK currently migrates North later in the weekend following a period when it falls slack and diffuse. It then settles in a NE direction across or just to the NW of Scotland next week with the UK remaining very much on the mild side.

 

In Summary it seems the persistence of High pressure which has dominated the Summer to the SW and latterly to the East and now expected to the SE will continue to rule the roost across the UK in the foreseeable future keeping the UK locked in a mild and sometimes warm South or SW flow with it's close proximity keeping any meaningful rain beyond this week well away from most of the UK. With High pressure seemingly not allowing the Jet Stream South very much after this week it means that a warm Autumn could well be on the cards unless the pattern breaks soon and that looks unlikely at the moment as the Atlantic looks quite weak for this time of the year with the development of major storm systems looking relatively few at the moment and in any event steered away North by strong High pressure areas at Southerly latitudes.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly looks like a rinse and repeat sort of pattern continuing with a flow from more of a SW/S direction, switching to a S/SE flow as the High traverses north-eastwards into Europe. Either way it's staying mild for now.

 

Surface weather wise - as others have said the SE currently looks to be the better areas to experience settled weather from the weekend, with more influence from any Atlantic lows to the NW of the UK. Position and strength of any low pressure will be key in how much of the UK stays settled or not. Cloud cover is questionable at this time and as we all know from last week...as much as it was settled, some areas experienced a week of cloud and drizzle most of the time (including myself bar one day)

 

How long it will last? Who knows, but i'd rather have this now than waste cold synoptics at this time Posted Image

Edited by Chris K
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing in the charts to suggest an early cold blast in the offing, in fact quite the opposite. High pressure rebuilds from the southwest this weekend across Europe and S Britain, then a trough amplifies to our west/SW next week with a ridge further west over the NW Atlantic/NE N America - so locked into a mild to warmish flow from the southwest or south as we head through early October. Quite a meridional flow pattern over the N Atlantic ahead, with the UK on the warm side of the trough/ridge.

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a very settled and very warm outlook for the time of year the further south you are but even central parts of the uk would do well out of this, even the north of the uk would do ok compared to recent output. First of all, the azores anticyclone builds in strongly from the southwest during the weekend and from around T+120 hours it's an increasingly warm, sunny and frankly, quite incredible spell as we would be well into october by then. There is a certain defiance from the azores high this year that was largely missing last year and with the formation of a large euro high, the onset of genuine autumnal weather will very probably be put on hold for a good while longer, enjoy the sun and the warmth while you can because it looks as though we are going to squeeze every bit of warmth and fine weather before the pattern eventually changes but lord knows when that will be.Posted Image Posted Image

post-4783-0-87403900-1380625033_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-45328400-1380625252_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-58817600-1380625259_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-12126000-1380625269_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-55637300-1380625277_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-50869400-1380625284_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-20501900-1380625302_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-10868100-1380625308_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-46737100-1380625315_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-42051400-1380625326_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 06z operational run shows a lot of fine, sunny and for the time of year, very warm weather ahead of us from the weekend onwards, especially the further south & east you are, further west and north it becomes unsettled and windier at times but very mild and there is also a spell of much warmer and sunnier weather later next week, all in all, these synoptics are more like summer than the first half of october, on this run we flirt with a breakdown from the west but then there is a reboot of the current pattern with another surge of very warm air pumping up from the south as a trough becomes anchored to the southwest of the uk and continental high pressure moves closer, this persists well into the low res and frankly, the 6z has no idea how the warm weather pattern will be finally broken down, it could last into the second half of october.

post-4783-0-72380900-1380629847_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-31096400-1380629861_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-93820600-1380629870_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-70427200-1380629880_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-71775100-1380629892_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-40222100-1380629902_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-83265000-1380629917_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-35730100-1380629928_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-97888500-1380629936_thumb.pn

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Having a hard time reconciling the MetO 6-15 dayer with the charts I'm looking at:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

"Through the first half of next week, the unsettled weather in the northwest may push gradually southeastwards across the UK, though the far southeast is likely to remain largely dry and fine. Through the rest of the period, largely unsettled, with outbreaks of rain, the most unsettled weather generally towards the northwest."

 

Obviously they have more tools available, but the block just looks a lot more formidable than that would suggest.

MOGREPS saying something different?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

A much more stable looking GEFS 06z mean compared to the op, this is more in line with the ecm 0z mean and shows a prolonged fine and unusually warm spell for the first half of october (apart from the next few days) with increasingly benign conditions returning across most of the uk from the weekend and especially throughout next week with the airmass sourced from southern europe. Only the far northwest of the uk looks like being troubled by low pressure to any degree once the current unsettled spell is over, summery charts for the south & east in particular.

post-4783-0-90876300-1380632463_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-76015300-1380632469_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-81099000-1380632481_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-46710100-1380632490_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-53063300-1380632494_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-13523500-1380632504_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-68512700-1380632512_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-46210800-1380632521_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-28903400-1380632536_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Having a hard time reconciling the MetO 6-15 dayer with the charts I'm looking at:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

"Through the first half of next week, the unsettled weather in the northwest may push gradually southeastwards across the UK, though the far southeast is likely to remain largely dry and fine. Through the rest of the period, largely unsettled, with outbreaks of rain, the most unsettled weather generally towards the northwest."

 

Obviously they have more tools available, but the block just looks a lot more formidable than that would suggest.

MOGREPS saying something different?

I think the words may push gradually southeastwards is very telling, uncertainty creeping into the met office terminology I think, the ens mean look solid for a warm settled outlook away from the far northwest.Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...