Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Paul]

Another reminder as some are again very close to the wire - there is a zero tolerance policy in here when it comes to bickering, point scoring, digs at other people and generally anything that is against the spirit of the forum. Please moderate your own posts before hitting the submit button or you could find yourself unable to post in here without any further notice or warning..

 

In addition, this also applies to the model banter thread.

[mincemeat]

The GEFS 00z mean shows the height of the stalemate at T+144 hours, a mexican standoff between the atlantic low and the scandi high, however, beyond that point the atlantic low has had enough and drifts away towards iceland and the scandi high also loses it's appetite and sinks away southeastwards but pressure then rises from the south with fine and benign weather spreading up from mainland europe. The very autumnal weather remains on the other side of that thick black line (the polar front jet) but eventually the PFJ does make some progress southeastwards with relatively colder air pushing into scotland towards mid october, I think the second half of october will be the turning point when we finally break out of this locked down stagnant pattern.

 

it,s next to Arch Stanton

[Summer Sun]

Agreement from GFS ens to build this huge area of high pressure later next week as per ECM

 

 

t312 onwards it breaks up

 

 

ECM 00z ensemble backs GFS ens up

 

 

Good agreement on it becoming dry and unseasonably mild again later next week and into the following week

 

[Nick F]

Does look like the classic battleground situations we see in winter at the moment between high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure to the west and southwest. High pressure should lose the battle as we head through next week, with showers or longer spells of rain becoming increasingly widespread from the southwest. 

 

However, EC shows the ridge to our east will not go too far away, with a stalemate looking to exist with a trough close to our west and high pressure to our east - but with the UK under cyclonic conditions bringing unsettled but warm weather in the southerly flow intially. GFS more mobile and progressive with the trough, but it does build HP back in across the UK.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Nick F

[Frosty.]

it,s next to Arch Stanton

I love that movie, when you have to shoot..shoot!..don't talk

 

Totally agree with nick, summed the situation up to perfection

Edited September 27, 2013 by Frosty.

[Tamara]

Model hints from yesterday are carried forward into today with the -NAO signal being replaced by a return to a +NAO signal with the upper low in the atlantic migrating towards Iceland and the airsteam switching from tropical continental to tropical maritime in origin. This transition, as anticipated, being slow but steady over a few days period. The EPS members advertise this change well as we get to and beyond the middle of next week with a squeeze on the ridge to the east and more energy going into the northern branch of the jetstream

 

The transition phase also represents what is, quite likely, an interruption to quiet settled conditions at least for the southern half of the UK. The pattern adjustment/transition will allow fronts to encroach from the NW but the current modelling shows every chance that these might get squeezed out in situ as a renewed pressure rise occurs across the UK from the ridge over the nearby continent to connect with the Azores High and lie across southern Britain while weather fronts maybe continue to brush close to NW Britain from time to time

 

The ECM operational is well supported in this respect by day 10 by the ensemble mean

 

[Cloud 10]

it,s next to Arch Stanton

 

.....in here..

 

 

 

....which pretty much sums up the longer term outlook. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows quite some battle raging next week between the atlantic low & scandi high, the scandi high looks strong but the low does have a minor victory as fronts eventually drive their way eastwards bringing heavy rain across the uk to go with the strong to gale force s'ly winds which will have been blowing for several days.

 

This weekend and early next week looks warm and increasingly windy with lots of sunshine, just some rain at the top and tail of the uk, a few heavy showers flirting with the far south, southern coastal regions mostly, and the far north of the uk where fronts brush across from the atlantic with outbreaks of rain but better from sunday with fine weather just about everywhere, then gradually becoming unsettled from the west next week but staying warmish.

 

Eventually the PFJ is forced further northwest as high pressure to the south of the uk extends north and there is a brief fresher interlude with more of an atlantic flow as the pattern reboots before the warmth starts to build again, along with the sunshine and light winds but overnight fog, only the far northwest would remain unsettled.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Frosty.

[shedhead]

This will do just nicely for Xmas Day.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2013 by shedhead

[smithyweather]

Lovely end to ECM again with a huge area of high pressure still shown to build later next week 3rd successive run this has been shown now

The thing is, it's not lovely weather. The majority would now like to experience some typical autumn weather. I would say quite a few members are now fed up with this boring and rather bengin warm weather. It is not normal where I live and to be quite honest with you it is a nusance and is boring.

[smithyweather]

Lovely end to ECM again with a huge area of high pressure still shown to build later next week 3rd successive run this has been shown now

The thing is, it's not lovely. The majority of us are fed up with this boring above average weather. It is coming upto October now which perhaps you have not noticed is autumn. In my area we would typically experience about 12c and rain at this time and the fact thatwe are experiencing 21c and cloud day in day out is rather annoying. I do not enjoy this weather and thus I say good riddence.

[Scorcher]

The thing is, it's not lovely weather. The majority would now like to experience some typical autumn weather. I would say quite a few members are now fed up with this boring and rather bengin warm weather. It is not normal where I live and to be quite honest with you it is a nusance and is boring.

 

A nuisance? It's absolutely lovely here this afternoon- not sure how this weather could inconvenience anyone? What amuses me is that a lot of people on here wouldn't call this weather boring if it was colder than average. Benign with sunshine and warm temperatures is considered boring whereas benign with sunshine and cold temperatures is considered 'interesting' for some reason. No one seems to complain when we get one of those cold, raw easterly spells with constant low cloud- that's far more boring to me than the current weather!

[Frosty.]

Now I reckon this would be considered a pattern change.... ...what could possibly go wrong, it's the 6z

[Captain Shortwave]

This will do just nicely for Xmas Day.....

 

 

 

One would assume that the uppers will be a lot better come the time, I hope   

Edited September 27, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shedhead]

One would assume that the uppers will be a lot better come the time, I hope   

Of course CS...clearly it would depend on what had preceded it, but those synoptics would probably give widespread 850's of c.-10c.  Bit less cold south of the M4, but with blizzards as compensation....we can dream

Edited September 27, 2013 by shedhead

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It certainly does look as though the models are pointing to a pretty unsettled week next week, starting off in the W and gradually transfering East across all areas by midweek. Still warm though and there are signs on the ECM and GEFS mean that by next weekend HP will once again be building from the South and a  more N and South split will take place with the best of settled conditions being better the further South you are.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Now I reckon this would be considered a pattern change.... ...what could possibly go wrong, it's the 6z

At least it's not the pub run....

 

What have the verification stats been like on the models recently?

 

Memo to self: Find URL with verification stats

One would assume that the uppers will be a lot better come the time, I hope   

And we'd need a gale to give us any chance of snow the SST's will still be too high for anything white near the coast

[bluearmy]

 

What have the verification stats been like on the models recently?

 

whatever they are at days 5 and 6, anecdotally, they have been dire. will be interesting to see how they have done globally but they cant be good for our part of the world.

[Yarmy]

At least it's not the pub run....

 

What have the verification stats been like on the models recently?

 

Memo to self: Find URL with verification stats

And we'd need a gale to give us any chance of snow the SST's will still be too high for anything white near the coast

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[Frosty.]

There are some cool and very unsettled perturbations amongst the GEFS 06z set but to counter balance that, there are also some very settled and rather warm outcomes too.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The latest met office update indicates to me that the east and northeast of the uk are likely to stay fine and bright well into next week, perhaps until later next week due to the significant influence of the scandi anticyclone, the atlantic low appears to have a lot more impact for the south and especially the western side of the uk as next week goes on, following a fine start although all areas will have strong sse'ly winds but at least those winds are rather warm as they are sourced from way south but the strength of the winds will likely take the edge off the very respectable temperatures, as indeed they will this weekend, especially by sunday.

 

It looks generally sunnier and warmer for the east & northeast, despite the strong winds and then later next week the rain in the west and south looks like spreading erratically north and east as the influence of the scandi high disappears due to the high migrating further southeast as time goes on. Looking further ahead, most of the heavy rain will become more confined to the north and west of the uk, especially the northwest corner of the uk, along with the stronger winds with more in the way of dry, bright and rather warm weather eventually for all other areas BUT it then looks like turning cooler with more of a westerly upper flow bringing a mid/north atlantic airmass across the uk along with rather unsettled conditions, again, especially for the northwest, I believe this is what the 500 mb anomaly charts are currently indicating, this pattern then persists towards mid october but there remains a weak signal for drier, brighter and warmer weather across the south of the uk.

 

This update to me doesn't really look like the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is showing, the ecm becomes a lot more settled and benign and also rather warm again from either the end of next week or soon after, overall, this update sounds ultimately rather cooler and unsettled in comparison.

Edited September 27, 2013 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

whatever they are at days 5 and 6, anecdotally, they have been dire. will be interesting to see how they have done globally but they cant be good for our part of the world.

 

I think if you look at the 5 and 6 day checks ba you will find that they all dipped at the beginning of the month and again a few days ago (that is for the northern hemisphere) but through it all ECMWF led with Met 2nd and GFS 3rd.

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows the low winning the battle later next week for a time

 

 

By next Saturday we see the Azores gaining strength over Spain and France

 

 

Next Sunday see's warm air coming back for England and Wales

 

 

T264 see's some cooler air coming into Scotland but with high pressure filling the Atlantic again It may not belong until warm air returns

 

 

2 days later we get this

 

 

And by the 12th cooler air is slowly moving south wards again with high pressure blocking the Atlantic we have to look else where if its deep lows your after

 

 

How common is -24 uppers over Greenland for early October?

 

 

Not cold enough for any wintery weather high up to end GFS but its cooler than we've become use to of late

 

Edited September 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

UKMO also shows the low winning out next week

 

[draztik]

The models indicate an unsettled coming week, tho the east fairs best in terms of lower rainfall amounts. After t192, its anyones guess - using the ggem ens as a reference,

 

 

We are likely to see a split, with the best of any warmer weather to the south, with average conditions further north...

 

The GEM 12z has a different take,

 

 

but at this stage its lacking support for such an evolution...

 

with the gfs ens at 240 indicating