Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Mark Neal.]

Interestingly with this run, it still has reasonably mild uppers over the UK, but by end of week the 0c 850 is close to Scotland yet much of UK under 8c Uppers.

[Mark Neal.]

I know its one model run and its the GFS, which some have doubts about but, it looks like just what a few alluded to yesterday that we would see low pressure signals for next weekend with trough over us, low pressure moving NW-SE again perhaps?

 

Aye, will the greeny show up in FI again I wonder??

I'll be watching  A early tease, but there have been hints in some recent output CC

Edited September 19, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Frosty.]

Next week is looking very interesting because we have very warm air pushing up from the south and unusually cold air pushing down from the arctic, a battleground and the first significant mountain snow for scotland by the end of next week?

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty wet for Scotland midweek onwards, a lot of rain would fall given the steep temperature gradient and high humidity. Lets hope this doesn't verify  

 

Edited September 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

GFS FI, back to zonal?

 

0C uppers heading south again, just like ECM did earlier around same time lol 

Edited September 19, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here comes the N'ly

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Here comes the N'ly

 

You are just as bad as me for jinxing the output 

[Cheshire Freeze]

You are just as bad as me for jinxing the output 

 

Pretty stunning really. Look at the pressure profile around Greenland

 

 

Beast of a Greenland high...

 

 

Early October?

Edited September 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Mark Neal.]

Unsettled beginning of October? But a Greeny High.? 

(Obviously right out in FI, but something to keep a watch for in future output)

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well, some synoptically stunning charts in FI from the GFS there. Won't bring anything of note in early October but as Steve Murr has pointed out on several occasions, that polar profile is breathtaking.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well, some synoptically stunning charts in FI from the GFS there. Won't bring anything of note in early October but as Steve Murr has pointed out on several occasions, that polar profile is breathtaking.

If you want something to wet your appetite then the control run gives you your desired synoptics even earlier

[bluearmy]

the direction of travel away from a sustained settled spell has been pretty clear for a day or two. The detail much more tricky which is why some were using telecon indicators to help judge where the models would begin to place the trough/ridge.

I didnt post much cos i didnt think too many wanted to hear my thoughts - you need to view the ens mean in tandem with the spreads. Anyway, still time for a swing back to something less troughy but looking like a chilly blast could well be on the menu.

[mushymanrob]

re this

Latest NOAA 8-14 day 500mb shows LP to East of UK and HP to West of UK, pretty much ala ECM

 

 

It does not show low pressure east of the UK, what it shows is a very small -ve height anomaly east of the UK-a very different thing.

 

that confused me... i didnt agree with what was posted, and being new and not so technically minded/experienced in these charts i was wondering whether id got it wrong... doesnt that chart show a westerly upper flow? (with slight high anom to our east).

 

either way its still unreliable that far off .

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

that confused me... i didnt agree with what was posted, and being new and not so technically minded/experienced in these charts i was wondering whether id got it wrong... doesnt that chart show a westerly upper flow? (with slight high anom to our east). either way its still unreliable that far off .

No there is blues to the East. Negative height anom.

[Captain Shortwave]

the direction of travel away from a sustained settled spell has been pretty clear for a day or two. The detail much more tricky which is why some were using telecon indicators to help judge where the models would begin to place the trough/ridge.

I didnt post much cos i didnt think too many wanted to hear my thoughts - you need to view the ens mean in tandem with the spreads. Anyway, still time for a swing back to something less troughy but looking like a chilly blast could well be on the menu.

To be honest the coldies have already stormed the barricades   you would have been fine.

I was about to resign to the ECM being right, then the ECM output was again completely different, it's dropped the deep Scandi trough idea

 

So from just Sunday and Monday being warm on the last run and having good ensemble support. The warmth now extends to next Thursday at least

Even the ECM can't make its mind up 

[mushymanrob]

good agreement for a warming settled spell from now until tuesday, peaking on monday, before a gradual temp drop as we lose the higher uppers as 'this' high gets absorbed with one in the north atlantic/greenland.

 

inevitably itll get cooler... not surprising for the time of year... as a strong greenland high and scandinavial low introduces a cold northerly to our north. but the worst of the cold northerly blast expected looks like missing us and being deflected into northern europe as high pressure clings on to our south.

 

in other words... a few very nice warm days before things return to more average or above average (location applicable) conditions. but plenty of dry, often sunny (location dependant) weather for the forseeable.

[mushymanrob]

No there is blues to the East. Negative height anom.

 

oops..yes thats what i meant, i was agreeing with john.

 

... but with a westerly upper flow, and its fi.

Edited September 20, 2013 by mushymanrob

[bluearmy]

just to iterate that i'm not dismissing next week - it look generally fine - the further ne you are, the closer you get to the lower heights and cooler uppers. it will be warm to begin with and then taper off to average as we go through the middle part of the week. (again, the further sw you are the longer you hold onto the decent uppers). its what follows next week that looks more unsettled. my view of a sustained settle spell is more than a week. 

[Frosty.]

These are sensational charts that would cause meltdown on here in winter, really stunning wintry synoptics although even in late september the air would chill sufficiently to bring wet snow to the higher hills & mountains across scotland.   

 

If anyone here has seen Game of Thrones, they will know what I mean when I say.....winter is coming 

[johnholmes]

that confused me... i didnt agree with what was posted, and being new and not so technically minded/experienced in these charts i was wondering whether id got it wrong... doesnt that chart show a westerly upper flow? (with slight high anom to our east).

 

either way its still unreliable that far off .

 

correct it does and the -ve anomaly to the east is so small as to be insignificant, it needs to be very much larger and to be associated with signs of troughing in the contour heights to have any real bearing.

 

Much as I have said before that trying to use the anomaly values is very difficult even for a trained forecaster, best to stick, at least at first, to the contour lines.

 

The output this morning on ECMWF-GFS is yet another almost total switch around from 24 hours ago. They are almost as volatile at the moment as the synoptic models. Variability at the change over of the main seasons, summer-winter and winter-summer is quite usual. What is unusual is the length of time this year, now 6-7 days. NOAA is the least volatile of them this change over.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited September 20, 2013 by johnholmes

[Man With Beard]

Don't recall ever having seen this type of chart in September ... about 6 weeks too early from a wintry point of view. 

[chionomaniac]

Blimey! do I see an omega block at the end of the ECM run. What a waste in September!

[bluearmy]

Blimey! do I see an omega block at the end of the ECM run. What a waste in September!

Only a waste if you expect it to verify ed! Mind you, there were winters past when we would go through the whole nwp season without seeing an omega block, even on a gfs T384 chart!i know it means nowt to see wintry sypntoic solutions appear so far away from N/D but HLB is HLB and the way it continues to appear so effortlessly encourages me regarding the run up to winter proper.

[chionomaniac]

Only a waste if you expect it to verify ed!Mind you, there were winters past when we would go through the whole nwp season without seeing an omega block, even on a gfs T384 chart!i know it means nowt to see wintry sypntoic solutions appear so far away from N/D but HLB is HLB and the way it continues to appear so effortlessly encourages me regarding the run up to winter proper.

I may not expect it to verify - but there is always a pleasure to see a great synoptic looking chart at any time!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A Chilly FI from GFS. Temps taking a tumble to Oct average.

 

 

Looks like this upcoming warm spell has been toned down looking at the 5 day forecast for London this morning using the meto data, temps of  Sat 19c, Sun 20c, Mon 21c, Tues 20c.

 

Temps approaching 25c seem highly unlikely otherwise i would have thought meto would actually be forecasting it. Maybe the GFS overcooked the temps instead of undercooking.